Can a Function Accurately Model a Random Array of Points on the x-y Plane?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the possibility of accurately modeling a random array of points on the x-y plane, specifically addressing whether a function can be constructed to hit each point exactly. The scope includes theoretical considerations of modeling techniques, polynomial interpolation, and the implications of using various regression methods.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant questions whether it is possible to model a random set of points with an equation, mentioning the use of an interpolating polynomial in Lagrange form as a potential method that does not yield satisfactory results.
  • Another participant asserts that a fourth-order polynomial can indeed hit each specified point exactly but cautions against using such a polynomial due to its poor extrapolative capabilities and rapid changes outside the range of given points.
  • A different participant asks for clarification on the expectations from the model, suggesting that understanding the intended use of the model could guide the selection of appropriate methods.
  • Another participant echoes this sentiment, emphasizing that the model should serve a purpose beyond merely fitting the existing points.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the appropriateness of using high-order polynomials for modeling, with some acknowledging the feasibility of hitting all points while others raise concerns about the implications of such models. The discussion remains unresolved regarding the best approach to take for modeling the points.

Contextual Notes

Limitations include the lack of clarity on the specific goals of the modeling effort, which may affect the choice of methods. There is also an acknowledgment of the challenges associated with high-order polynomial fitting, particularly in terms of extrapolation and overfitting.

Who May Find This Useful

This discussion may be of interest to those exploring mathematical modeling techniques, particularly in the context of data fitting and interpolation methods in statistics and applied mathematics.

skyraider
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Hi,

I want to model a set of a few dozen points on the x-y plane where y can be anywhere from 0 to 100 and x increases by 1 for each point on the y-axis, ex:

(1, 26)
(2, 84)
(3, 2)
etc. . .

Is it possible to accurately model such a random array of points with an equation? Someone once suggested using an 'interpolating polynomial in the Lagrange form', but that does not appear to work well with such a random array of points.

If it can't be done with a known regression technique, here is my question:

Given the points (1, 26) (2, 84) (3, 2) (4, 100) (5, 50), could a function exist - any function of any category - which will hit each point?

Thanks.
 
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skyraider said:
Given the points (1, 26) (2, 84) (3, 2) (4, 100) (5, 50), could a function exist - any function of any category - which will hit each point?

Thanks.

This final question is an easy one: The answer is yes. A fourth-order polynomial will hit each point exactly:
[tex]-27x^4 + 323\frac1 3x^3-1335x^2+2204\frac2 3x-1140[/tex]

You generally don't want to do that, however. For example, this particular polynomial rapidly goes negative as x goes below 1 or above 5. In other words, it has very little extrapolative capability. You will quickly start to lose even interpolative capability with the exact-fit polynomial as the number of points increases. You want to develop a fit to a less expressive model.

There is no magic one-form-fits-all method. People can still get advanced degrees in statistics, after all.
 
If you tell us what you expect from this "model", we can suggest various methods that are suited to the task.
 
As Crosson says, obviuosly you must be expecting something from this model besides hitting all the points. You already have all the points so you must be expecting something additional, but what is it?
 

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