Can Jet Engines Save Earth from a Collision with an Asteroid?

[EnumaElish]

Humanity permitted to make simplifying assumptions.

 

[Noisy Rhysling]

Humanity permitted to make simplifying assumptions.

That kind of thing nearly got me killed a few times. I'm a fan of accuracy.

 

[Stephanus]

...For that to even come close to fruition, you must first have that month. Objects like the one over Moscow were not detected while in "deep space"; people didn't know about them until they were already in the atmosphere.

Yeah, I didn't know about the object either until it was already in the newspaper.

 

[newjerseyrunner]

How many chunks flying off in what directions in those scenarios? Seem like if we blew a planet up we'd have more problems than with a single body.

The nuclear deflection concept doesn't produce chunks, it produces vapor. The bomb itself doesn't actually push the asteroid much, but it vaporizes the surface on one side, which acts like a rocket.

 

[Rubidium_71]

The rate at which we discover asteroids is not at all like the Fermi Paradox.

The thing is, both the larger Universe and our own Solar System still have unknowns, despite our best efforts to analyze and quantify.

we're seeing new ones at an ever decreasing rate, it's indicative of the fact that we found most of them.

The NEO chart below seems to show a fairly steady rate of discovery, but it's not anywhere near zero yet. Lots of work to do yet, I think. I am skeptical of the 90% stat. Even when we've detected most of them the problem isn't solved. Just because it's detected doesn't mean it's on a leash. These objects can have their orbit influenced by a few different factors and it can be difficult for a project like ATLAS to detect an object if their radiant is not too close to the Sun.

Either way, both the US and Russia do have the capability to shoot a nuclear weapon at an asteroid.

I am not aware of a nuclear anti-impact facility being constructed or having been constructed. All of the nuclear weapons currently held are designed to strike targets on Earth (and some of those haven't been upgraded in decades). Since the nuclear weapon is often considered the magic bullet of object deflection, maybe they should set aside and maintain a specially designed group of them for striking the far more distant targets presented by asteroids.
Hurrying to assemble such a device at the last minute doesn't give me a whole lot of confidence. Time pressure and recklessness are not very compatible with nuclear innovation, just ask Harry Daghlian, Louis Slotin or the folks from the Chernobyl control room.
Progress in this area is being made, but it's got a ways to go.

 

[Noisy Rhysling]

The nuclear deflection concept doesn't produce chunks, it produces vapor. The bomb itself doesn't actually push the asteroid much, but it vaporizes the surface on one side, which acts like a rocket.

If it works as predicted...