News Can Kerry Win Over the Southern States?

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The discussion centers on the potential for John Kerry to win over Southern states in the upcoming election against George W. Bush. Participants express skepticism about Kerry's chances, citing his early peak in popularity and concerns over his ability to maintain support without alienating key voter demographics. The sentiment suggests that Bush's established base and the polarized political climate could favor his reelection. Additionally, the impact of potential vice presidential picks, like John Edwards, is debated, with some arguing that a Southern candidate could help Kerry. Overall, the conversation reflects a belief that Kerry's strategy may mirror past electoral failures, particularly that of Michael Dukakis.
  • #31
Originally posted by megashawn
1>Woa, dude, don't you think your being just a lil touchy here?

2>I mean, let's face it. A good majority of people in the south are very much still racist, and portray an attitude that is very similar to your last response.

3>Now, I'm from north carolina, AKA the middle east, and most of what Njorl said is quite true. I know of several people who plan to vote for bush.
4>When I query them why they think he deserves another term, few can give a good explanation. They denie the lies we we're told about iraq, hell, some people actually think we have found WMD's and ties to OBL. Heck, my girlfriend told me she plans to vote for bush, because that's who her brother is voting for. I suspect there are plenty of other voters who vote for who there family tells them to.

5>The south is quite an armpit,
6>I love it here, I hope to be able to piss enough people off that they move the bible belt to the closest.
7> Unfortunatly, as was mentioned, if you don't have a southern accent, your not getting much of a vote from the south.

___

8>But this brings another question about election. I admit, I'll be 24 this year and I've never voted.
9> The entire process is to complicated.
10> Anyhow, if I vote for say, kerry, but Bush wins NC, does my vote still support kerry?
11> Because doesn't each state have an electorate vote, which represents the entire state? If this is so, it certainly seems it will be pointless for me to vote, without moving to a kerry supporting state.

12>I certainly hope that bush gets kicked to the curb, if he gets another 4 years, it might be worth our time to reread the John Titor prophecys.

1>Considering I was just told that the secret to my community is that we are looking for closet racists? Not in the least.
2>A Good majority? I wouldn't go that far. I would also point out that the majority of Black and Hispanics in this country live in the south still - do they want a 'closet racist', or is the groups' traditional low voting numbers the reason that such great people like Kerry are comfortable with publicly disregarding our entire geographic area?
3>Well, for someone who later professes that the election process is too complicated, I hope you won't take too much offense when I say that it could be the sect of people you are engulfed with that make you feel what Njorl said is true.
People planning to vote for Bush, and people voting for Bush because they want a racist in office are two separate things.
4>People voting uninformed is nothing new, and hardly shows the racist conspiracy that Njorl purports is running rampant across the south.
5>I disagree
6>Rephrase this - was that last part closet?
7>Do you think that the 58% of the black population, which lives in the south, and traditionally votes democrat is goign to just vote Bush because of his accent?
8>I'm glad you are stepping in :)
9>It certainly is not! It just takes some getting used to if you've never been engulfed in it.
10>Your vote still supports whomever you voted for. We are still in primary season. But assuming your question about the general election, it could be argued that a state already likely to go to Kerry doesn't need additional voters, and in fact your Kerry vote in a strong Bush state is more beneficial in the long run.
11>See number 10. If Kerry is going to win another state, he would do better with you staying put and raising awareness where you are at.
12>Well, I'm glad you are voting. I'm doing my best to get Bush elected over any of the democrat options, so atleast you can take pride that your vote is cancelling out mine


Seperate thought -
Njorl proclaims that
1>Kerry can win without any southern states and is justified in openly stating that he isn't looking for any.

This statement was concrning the primary. So we are only looking at democrats for the time being. In the south, the democrat vote is primarily African American, and 58% of the nation's Black population lives in the south. Is Kerry saying he doesn't care to go after the black vote?
Concerning the general election - If Kerry applies his apathetic attitude to the south, does that mean he doesn't care about the bulk of the black and hispanic vote in this country? And Bush is the closet racist?


2>Southerners want closet racists.
If this is the case with the primary, then still keeping in mind that the democrat primary in the south has the highest percentage of black voters of any election, does Kerry believe that he can't win the south because blacks and hispanics want him to hate them?
Still focusing on the primary, why wouldn white democrats not just vote Republican if they wanted a closet racist like njorl believes Bush is??
 
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  • #32
Exit polls say kerry is way ahead in both SOUTHERN states tonight, despite not campaigning there and despite some stupid things he said about blowing off the south. So much for the first order "everybody I know is a racist - he's going to lose", "lots of blacks in the south - he's going to win" predictions. The world is more complicated than that.

BTW is signing up to vote really that hard? Took me 15 minutes at the village hall. I called first, and they told me to bring a photo id and a couple of bills to verify my address (since I hadn't yet changed my drivers license). Walked in, flashed the id, lady gave me a short form, I filled it out, and she welcomed me to the Outagamie County voter rolls. I mean it's more trouble to buy gas!
 
  • #33
Originally posted by selfAdjoint
Exit polls say kerry is way ahead in both SOUTHERN states tonight, despite not campaigning there and despite some stupid things he said about blowing off the south. So much for the first order "everybody I know is a racist - he's going to lose", "lots of blacks in the south - he's going to win" predictions. The world is more complicated than that.

I guess Kerry is a closet racist, or we aren't dumb hillbillies looking for a good ol' boy...one of the two.
 
  • #34
I think that the idea that most people in the South are racist in the 2000s is a little ridiculous, but that doesn't mean that I don't have beef with most Southerners about how they vote. It seems to me (and I could be wrong) that you have a lot of people who just vote for whoever A) they think is "one of them" and/or B) talks a lot about traditional family values, big military, etc.

Hopefully this year's election will prove me wrong.

------------------------

I think that bush will go down this year. The media is finally realizing that he's not untouchable, that they don't have to hold back. With the Kay Report, his previous neglect of his duty to the country (a duty that he signed up for), his continual bantering about "a danger to the world"/"madman" when lacking any real defense for the war, Halliburton sweetheart deals, and continual bombings in Iraq in the forefront, many people will be turned off by bush.

I think that a big difference between people who will and will not vote for bush is whether they realize that he is a big liar.
 
  • #35
I have to agree that GWB is likely to lose to Kerry. Kerry is hanging out with his band of brothers while GWB goes through the motions of covering up his playing hookie (1972, same year the military started testing for DRUGS).
The CEO of Shell oil company is running the Iraqi Ministry of Oil, the only government building not bombed.
I think that a big difference between people who will and will not vote for bush is whether they realize that he is a big liar.
LOL, I think his cover might be blown by now. America will not stand for crooks like Bush, for if his reign continues for another 4 years the Republic might fall.
 
  • #36
Originally posted by Dissident Dan
I think that a big difference between people who will and will not vote for bush is whether they realize that he is a big liar.
Thats what I thought about Clinton too. Clearly people don't much care about that if they have money in their wallet.
 
  • #37
Originally posted by phatmonky
You's a be right! I'm just a dumb ol' southern boy and my vote be just race based. Excuse me now, I need to get back hangin' some niggas and ****ing cows with the rest of the uneducated folk inbreeding down here sir!

David Duke received 70% of the white vote when he ran for senate in Lousiana. There were two reasons for voting for Duke - mouth frothing racism and abject stupidity. I, for one, don't think the people of Lousiana are that stupid.

Njorl
 
  • #38
Originally posted by phatmonky
I guess Kerry is a closet racist, or we aren't dumb hillbillies looking for a good ol' boy...one of the two.

I'll go slowly so that even you can understand.

This was a primary election.

Kerry won the Democratic party's election.

It is the Republican party that has pursued the open strategy of pusruing the racist vote in the south.

Most southern racists have switched to the Republican party.

Therefore, the majority of the devout racists were not voting in the Democratic primary.

And,just to clarify, "hillbilly" is a derogatory term used to describe those living in the Appalachian mountains. It is not restricted to the south. They are derided by the white southern establishment. In West Virginia and the mountainous parts of Tennessee they were staunch unionists and among the most virulent of anti-slavery fanatics. They have been preponderantly pro big government, switching from republican to democrat a few decades before the majority of white southerners switched from democrat to republican. No, I do not think all southerners are "hillbillies". More is the pity.

Njorl
 
  • #39
Well, let me counter both of your post with one link...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3269997.stm

It seems those pesky racist louisiana republicans were keeping an Indian-American ahead in the polls.

Now granted I will confess, Jindel barely lost (52-48), but you can clearly see from the following link that it wasn't from redneck southerners (well, unless you consider Jindel getting less than 10% of the black vote to be a sign of racism. In that case, you can explain how a white woman was favored so heavily by the black population).
Polls...
http://www.theadvertiser.com/news/html/E988BE4C-8550-4739-9C14-69A573364052.shtml

But, I digress. I need to go see about rustlin' up some coloreds to beat up...
[zz)]
 
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  • #40
Originally posted by Njorl

And,just to clarify, "hillbilly" is a derogatory term used to describe those living in the Appalachian mountains. It is not restricted to the south. They are derided by the white southern establishment. In West Virginia and the mountainous parts of Tennessee they were staunch unionists and among the most virulent of anti-slavery fanatics. They have been preponderantly pro big government, switching from republican to democrat a few decades before the majority of white southerners switched from democrat to republican. No, I do not think all southerners are "hillbillies". More is the pity.

Njorl

If I remember correctly, to clarify your clarification, the hillbillies were originally the "Appalachian Whites" in pre-post Civil War era, and their isolation kept them away from the then-current slave trade. Because of this, the hillbillies generally had pro-northern views at that time.
 
  • #41
Duh Bush is going to win!

Obviously he got a bombshell in his pocket - like the cure for AIDS or his plan to oust Fidel and Gadaffi!

Couldn't anyone see this coming?
 
  • #42
I don't think he's going to win, he's lost all credibility. Kerry and the democrats have no problem exposing his hypocricy.
 
  • #43
I'm just going by intuition here. Bush is going to win.
 
  • #44
Is that intuition... or Hype?
 
  • #45
Hehee..I don't hate him nor do I like him, but that's how it usually ends up. It will most likely be a close fight though
 
  • #46
Originally posted by schwarzchildradius
Is that intuition... or Hype?

Incumbent + huge campaign fund + nukular = winner.
 
  • #47
Howard Dean blew through 40 million in one crazy weekend and never won a caucus, so money isn't everything in politics, especially if people see you as untrustworthy. If people were to vote exactly the same as in 2000, it would only take one state or 540 votes in florida to turn the tables.
 
  • #48
I think part of the reason Howard Dean lost is like most Guys he couldn't control his mouth!
 
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  • #49


Originally posted by Mattius_
Lose the election!

Now predict further...Who will WIN the election?

I'm not thrilled about any of the blokes running for office, but I favor President Bush over the Democrats for various reasons. However, whoever wins needs to quit pressuring Israel to "practice restraint" in our war against terrorism, if we're serious, with our allies, in winning such a war of attrition...
 
  • #50
I have no idea when the general election in Britain is, but i think both are going to have a close connection. If Blair/Bush gets voted out, then so will Bush/Blair. However I am not so sure on this. Blair is Bush's lapdog, so if Bush leaves, Tony doesn't have a hope in hell, but i don't know about if Tony is voted out first, as he doesn't have that much of an influence in America, but i hope that Tony gets ousted no matter what, i have had enough of the smarmy big-earred gimp who has turned Britain into the carpet of the world.

Anyway, i don't see why there is a such a big hoo-har about who the South/Coasts vote for. In Britain, the South (usually the richer area) vote for the Conservative and right-wing parties whereas the North tend for Labour and the social parties. But that is less constant nowadays. However a lot of the armed forces will vote conservative no matter what. So stop yer damn whining about which part of the country votes for who, and put REAL reasons down.

Ahh what the hell, Tony and Dubya will probably both rig it!
 
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  • #51
Kerry has to take all of the states Gore took in 2000 plus one other, fairly populous state. Examples Ohio, Tennessee, Florida. The dems seem to be writing Florida off, for obvious reasons. But Ohio has been hard hit by layoffs and could be up for grabs.
 
  • #52
But how can Kerry possibly hope to win all those southern states that Gore won because he was a southerner? :wink:

Njorl
 
  • #53
Southern States?

Originally posted by Njorl
But how can Kerry possibly hope to win all those southern states that Gore won because he was a southerner? :wink:

Njorl

Umm, which southern states would those be? (Yeah, I saw the wink, but some folks might be taken in).
 

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