Gordon Watson said:
You say "That's right" -- which I take to mean that you agree that your statement is wrong -- but you then continue with another confusion, your 1) + 2) above: implying that PROBABILITIES can be negative?
The "that's right" was in response to your unarguably true statement that probablity amplitudes are different from probabilities. I then went on to say that both I and Aaronson are talking about probabilities, not probability amplitudes, although we are also talking about
contributions to a net probability result. The amplitude comes prior to the 2-norm that Aaronson is talking about, but what is not interesting is that the amplitudes could be negative (which has a simple classical wave analog), what's interesting is that the
probablity contributions can be negative (which has no classical wave analog). And not just negative like a correction for double-counting of correlated outcomes, but fundamentally negative like the way interference works-- except it is interference in the
probability contributions, not just fluxlike contributions as in classical wave interference.
In my view, QM deals with probabilities derived from probability amplitudes. Thus, for me, QM is an important extension of ordinary probability theory: Especially when you realize that any probability density may be represented as the absolute square of a complex Fourier polynomial.
I believe that is just
exactly what Aaronson is saying when he talks about negative probabilities-- they are the kind of probabilities you can get from probability amplitudes. That is saying something very important about quantum mechanics, it is one of the key innovations, that probabilities can come from complex probability amplitudes (and so can be negative). If you don't want to mention the complex amplitudes, you just do the whole thing at the level of the negative probabilities. It's just a streamlined way to say the same thing as what you are saying is key about quantum mechanics.
Then, seeing no point in belaboring our differences, but to be clear about what I mean by a probability: The probability P(A|C) is the expected proportion of long-run experimental outcomes, under condition C, in which A occurs. It is an estimate of the relative frequency of A that will be revealed by measurements under C.
Since I never expect a negative proportion, and have never heard of one being measured, I'm confident that probability needs no confusing negativities.
But you are missing that Aaronson is not talking about negative net probabilities, he is talking about negative probability
contributions in any sum of ways that A can occur under condition C. So it is just exactly the kind of probability that you mean, he is merely pointing out the key innovation that we are going to allow the contributing terms to be negative. In other words, if A can occur under condition C in way X, and in way Y, then A might be less likely to occur than in way X by itself-- if way Y corresponds to a negative probability. That's all he's saying, that's the central crux. He is
trying to make it simple, on purpose.
And Yes; I read and re-read the lecture with interest and fondness and pleasure and delight: seeing it compatible with the view that I've just expressed here.
No one ever said it was incompatible with the view you just expressed, indeed that is the whole point. Probabilities that come from imaginary amplitudes can be negative, and the constraints on those probabilities demand that any net probability be real and nonnegative, but the contributions can be negative-- and that is what never happened before quantum mechanics.