Can You Outpredict Paul the Octopus in the 2014 PF World Cup League?

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Discussion Overview

The thread discusses predictions for the outcomes of matches in the 2014 World Cup, inviting participants to compare their forecasting abilities against Paul the Octopus. The scope includes voting on overall winners, runner-ups, and individual match outcomes, with a focus on points awarded for correct predictions.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory

Main Points Raised

  • Participants are encouraged to predict the winner and runner-up of the World Cup, with various individuals suggesting different teams such as Spain, Brazil, Germany, and Argentina.
  • Voting on individual match outcomes is also proposed, with points awarded for correct results and scores, leading to a variety of predictions for specific matches.
  • Some participants express confidence in their predictions, while others offer differing views on match outcomes, indicating a range of opinions on team performances.
  • Specific match predictions are shared, with participants providing their expected scores for various games, showcasing a diversity of forecasting strategies.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

There is no consensus on which team will win the World Cup, as multiple competing views are presented. Participants have differing predictions for individual matches as well.

Contextual Notes

Participants' predictions depend on personal assessments of team strengths and weaknesses, and the discussion reflects a variety of assumptions about match outcomes without resolving these uncertainties.

  • #31
Note that you can predict multiple days in advance. This can be handy if you are going out of town for a weekend or going on holiday.

Note the order. It appears to be winner v loser. It is the order listed by FIFA. If for some odd reason I thought the Socceroos would win, the line for Chile v Australia would have looked like

Chile v Australia: 0-1Micromass: The preceding post was for demonstration purposes only. I will have updates for all of those predictions.
 
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  • #32
D H said:
Micromass: The preceding post was for demonstration purposes only. I will have updates for all of those predictions.

Oops. :redface:
 
  • #33
Finally, if I had said Australia v Chile: 1-0 and the Socceroos did indeed win 1-0, that should count (right, micro?)

You don't have to use the FIFA order. This is a suggestion, not a mandate.

The reason for using the FIFA order is that that make it easier for micromass to keep score. The fewer PMs to micromass complaining about awarding points, the better.
 
  • #34
micromass said:
Oops. :redface:
No problem. This is a test for you as well. Things will be hectic during group play.
 
  • #35
D H said:
Finally, if I had said Australia v Chile: 1-0 and the Socceroos did indeed win 1-0, that should count (right, micro?)

It counts, but I prefer people use the FIFA order.
 
  • #36
Exactly. Using the FIFA order makes things easier. Fewer chances for mistakes = fewer mistakes = fewer complaints.
 
  • #37
Argentina - Germany... 2-1.
 
  • #38
I bet on Brazil to take it all, as usual.
 
  • #39
This week is going to be a busy one. I'm going to put my predictions in early.

For June 12:
Brazil v Croatia: 2-0
 
  • #40
For June 13:
Mexico v Cameroon: 1-1
Spain v Netherlands: 1-0
Chile v Australia: 2-0
 
  • #41
It's less than eight hours until micro's 12 midnight GMT deadline for predictions for the first game.This will be a short-lived PF World Cup Futbol League if nobody plays the game.
 
  • #42
12/06/14
Brazil v Croatia: 3-1
 
  • #43
13/06/14
Mexico v Cameroon: 2-1
Spain v Netherlands: 2-1
Chile v Austrailia: 2-0
 
  • #44
trollcast said:
Mexico v Cameroon: 2-1
I considered that outcome, very strongly. I went with 1-1 instead because I suspect that whatever it was that made Mexico perform so poorly in CONCACAF has not completely left them behind.
 
  • #45
I was stuck between 1-1 and 2-1 to Mexico but bookies have mexico as favourite to win over a draw.
 
  • #46
trollcast said:
I was stuck between 1-1 and 2-1 to Mexico but bookies have mexico as favourite to win over a draw.
You have to go against the odds sometimes.

Besides, bookies aren't predicting the outcome of the game. Ignoring bookies who have access to a time machine, a witch doctor, a dirty referee, or a dirty player on their side, bookies are predicting which way the betting will go rather than which way the game will go. A bookie's goal is to twiddle with the odds to make it so people will bet such that the bookie makes money regardless of the outcome.
 
  • #47
Brazil - Croatia: 2 - 0

Mexico v Cameroon: 1 - 1
Spain v Netherlands: 1 - 2
Chile v Australia: 3 - 0
 
  • #48
D H said:
It's less than eight hours until micro's 12 midnight GMT deadline for predictions for the first game.
That was off by a day. :redface:

There are still 12+ hours to get your predictions for the Brazil v Croatia game.
 
  • #49
For Today (June 12):
Brazil v Croatia: 2-0
 
  • #50
Being a silent fan of Hajduk Split I can't allow Brazil to win. Either draw or Croatia wins. Say, 1-0 for Croatia.

Just for kicks, can't say I care much. I watched ALL matches in 1982, that was way too much. Especially taking into account fact my TV didn't have a good antenna, so for a perfect picture I had to lie motionless in a very peculiar position. Somehow it spoiled football for me.
 
  • #51
micromass said:
Voting on the winner
You can start voting on the winner and runner-up right now! But... the longer you wait, the less points you will get!
Winner: I guess Argentina.
Runner-up: Brazil.

For the match today, starting in a while, I guess
Brazil-Croatia (3-1) - but I hope Croatia wins :smile: - I like underdog breakthroughs.
 
  • #52
For June 13:
Mexico v Cameroon: 1-0
Spain v Netherlands: 1-0
Chile v Australia: 2-0
 
  • #53
I missed the start of this :O Brasil will win the cup beating Argentina; tonight's games:

Mexico 2-1 Cameroon
Spain 3-1 Netherlands
Chile 4-0 Australia
 
  • #54
For June 14:
Columbia v Greece: 1-0
Uruguay v Costa Rica: 2-0
England v Italy: 1-1
Côte D'Ivoire v Japan: 1-1
 
  • #55
d h said:
england v italy: 1-1

boooooo
 
  • #56
14th June
Colombia v Greece: 2-0
Uruguay v Costa Rica: 3-0
Cote D'Ivoire v Japan: 1-2
England v Italy: 1-0
 
Last edited:
  • #57
14th June
Colombia v Greece: 1 - 2
Uruguay v Costa Rica: 1 - 1
Cote D'Ivoire v Japan: 2 - 2
England v Italy: 1 - 3
 
  • #58
I should be having 3 points, not 2
 
  • #59
montadhar said:
I should be having 3 points, not 2

Just PM me next time :-p
 
  • #60
14th June
Colombia v Greece: 2 - 1
Uruguay v Costa Rica: 3 - 0
Cote D'Ivoire v Japan: 2 - 1
England v Italy: 2 - 0
 

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