- #1

jisbon

- 476

- 30

- Homework Statement
- Given the following statistics from a specific location:

60% of rainy days start out cloudy in the morning.

40% of all mornings are cloudy.

In December, it rains on average 9 out of 30 days.

In Dec, when it is a cloudy morning, what is the probability based on the given statistics that it is going to rain?

- Relevant Equations
- P(A|B) = P(B|A) P(A) / P(B)

I would like to check my understanding here to see if it is correct as I am currently stuck at the moment.

From the question, I can gather that:

P(Rain | Dec) = 9/30

P(Cloudy | Rain) = 0.6?

P(Cloudy | Rain) = 0.4

To answer the question:

P(Rain | <Cloudy, Morning, December> ) = P(Rain) * P(Cloudy|Rain) * P(Morning|Rain) * P(Dec|Rain)

= ? * 0.6 * ? * 9/30

This is going towards the Naive Bayes Theorem though, right? I think my initial thought process may be already wrong. Any guidance is greatly appreciated. Thank you!

From the question, I can gather that:

P(Rain | Dec) = 9/30

P(Cloudy | Rain) = 0.6?

P(Cloudy | Rain) = 0.4

To answer the question:

P(Rain | <Cloudy, Morning, December> ) = P(Rain) * P(Cloudy|Rain) * P(Morning|Rain) * P(Dec|Rain)

= ? * 0.6 * ? * 9/30

This is going towards the Naive Bayes Theorem though, right? I think my initial thought process may be already wrong. Any guidance is greatly appreciated. Thank you!