What will the UK election results mean for the EU and Scottish independence?

[lisab]

British voters get to decide on Thursday who they want to rule the world's fifth-largest economy in a tight election that could yield weak government, propel the United Kingdom towards a vote on EU membership and stoke Scottish desire for secession.

Anyone have an opinion of how this is going to go down?

Regardless of how the election goes, personally I'd be shocked if the UK left the EU. But if it happens, it wouldn't be the first time I have been caught off guard, wrt world affairs!

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/06/us-britain-election-voting-idUSKBN0NR2LU20150506

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Wow, to me if feels like the last election was only months ago.

 

[Ryan_m_b]

I just cast my vote. In terms of how it's going down there's a broad consensus amongst commentators that this will be another election without a majority. However it's very unlikely to be the same coalition, the lib dems lost a lot of the popularity they had last election by getting into bed with the conservatives. Another huge difference is that the SNP is set to become the third largest party by picking up nearly every Scottish seat. UKIP is the party mostly campaigning for an EU exit and whilst they're popular somewhat in the polls (around 15% of the vote) they're unlikely to get many seats thanks to first past the post voting. Same for the greens. In Wales Plaid Cymru are set to do well I think and I've got no idea about the Northern Ireland parties.

Tomorrow will be very interesting indeed. There's bound to be a few days scrabbling as party leaders try to form coalitions to gain a majority. Interestingly both main parties have ruled out a coalition with the SNP, IMO because they both campaigned so hard against Scottish independence that they can't u-turn now and buddy up with the party still gunning for more Scottish power.

We may have a situation in which the major parties can't form a coalition in which case one of them will try and lead with a minority party. There's been a lot of talk around "confidence and supply" recently which would mean a minority party would form a loose (I.e non official) alliance with one or more smaller parties. In return for the ruling party supporting some minority policies the minority parties promise not to contribute to a vote of no confidence. A no confidence vote is a possibility if we end up with a minority ruling party, traditionally they've not lasted long and if that's the case again there will be another election very soon.

One final personal observation but there's been a strong undercurrent for vote reform support over the last decade in the UK. There was a referendum a few years ago that decided to keep FPTP but arguably it was hamstrung by not offering an alternative anyone wants. We may see another serious push to scrap FPTP in favour of STV.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Early picks are conservatives won
http://blogs.wsj.com/dispatch/2015/05/07/u-k-election-results-live/

 

[Ryan_m_b]

The reaction here to that seems to be utter shock (basing this on social media and a flick through the news). The exit polls haven't been this different to the opinion polls in over twenty years.

Also quick clarification Greg, the exit polls show the Tories as having the largest party but not a majority. Even if it is 100% correct they'd still have to form a coalition (which could be very difficult given the fact the two other largest parties are strongly against them) and if they can't survive a likely no confidence vote.

 

[George Jones]

I am hoping that the exit polls are as wrong as they were in 1992.

 

[Vanadium 50]

The Torygraph...err...Telegraph is predicting 316 for the Conservatives, and 10 for the Liberal Democrats. (Who seem to be having a very rough night) That gives them 326, and they need 323, right?

 

[StevieTNZ]

I wonder if John Bercow will be re-elected Speaker?

(I am sad that Dawn Primarolo isn't running for Bristol South, as she made a good Deputy Speaker.)

 

[HossamCFD]

The Torygraph...err...Telegraph is predicting 316 for the Conservatives, and 10 for the Liberal Democrats. (Who seem to be having a very rough night) That gives them 326, and they need 323, right?

They need a minimum of 326 (out of a total of 650 seats). I'm not sure if another Tory/Lib Dem coalition is guaranteed though.

The exit polls look surprisingly accurate. The SNP was forecast to win 58 out of Scotland's 59 seats. So far the SNP has won 50 out of the counted 52 seats.

 

[StevieTNZ]

The exit polls look surprisingly accurate. The SNP was forecast to win 58 out of Scotland's 59 seats. So far the SNP has won 50 out of the counted 52 seats.

CNN is reporting SNP has 52 seats. Labour, 162. Conservatives 149.

 

[HossamCFD]

CNN is reporting SNP has 52 seats. Labour, 162. Conservatives 149.

Scotland is nearly there, only 2 constituencies remaining. The SNP has 54 seats so far, costing labour 40 seats in Scotland!

here's the BBC live coverage if anyone's interested:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results

Labour is actually not doing too bad in England, but their heavy loss in Scotland is proving disastrous.

 

[HossamCFD]

With only 90 constituencies to go, it looks like the tories might just about get a majority.

 

[Ryan_m_b]

Well this has shocked a lot of people. The Tories might actually get a majority government, albeit a slim one.

 

[Vanadium 50]

They need a minimum of 326 (out of a total of 650 seats)

Sinn Fein will take their seats? That's even more remarkable!

It's moot, since the Conservatives have 325 now, with a forecast of 331. (According to the BBC)

 

[Ryan_m_b]

The Tories just passed 326 with 7 to go. Clegg, Milliband and Farage have all stepped down. The nature of politics in the near future is going to be very different.

 

[HossamCFD]

I feel there is something to be said about the fact that UKIP came third in the popular vote at 12.6% of the vote share, and yet they only got 1 seat. On the other hand, the Lib Dems came fourth at 7.8% but they secured 8 seats. I know that the FPTP system is unlikely to change anytime soon but this is getting slightly ridiculous.

personally I'd be shocked if the UK left the EU.

Now that the tories got the majority, the EU referendum should take place in 2017.

 

[Astronuc]

Apparently, not even close. Cameron sweeps to unexpected triumph in British election
http://news.yahoo.com/uks-cameron-poised-return-power-labour-routed-scotland-014734115--business.html

With just one seat left to declare in the 650-seat house, the Conservatives held 330 and Labour 232. The center-left Liberal Democrats, who supported Cameron in government since 2010, were all but wiped out, reduced to eight seats from 57.
. . . .
. . . . The anti-EU, populist UK Independence Party (UKIP) surged into third place in the overall vote tally, but disappointed its followers by managing to place first in only one district to win just a single seat. Like Labour's Miliband, Lib-Dem leader Nick Clegg and UKIP leader Nigel Farage resigned as party leaders.

In a body blow to Labour that set the pattern for the night, Douglas Alexander, the party's campaign chief and foreign policy spokesman, lost his seat to a 20-year-old Scottish nationalist student, the youngest member of the House of Commons since 1667.

Labour also faced traumatic losses in England. Ed Balls, in line to be finance minister if Labour had won, lost his seat. He fought back tears as he expressed sorrow at Labour's defeat.

In Scottish nationalist landslide, 20-year-old student takes seat from Labour
http://news.yahoo.com/scottish-nationalist-landslide-20-old-student-takes-seat-040004140.html

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/election-2015-england-32605050
http://www.bbc.com/news/election/2015/results
Looks like conservatives got 331.

Interesting outcome.Hmmm. Monster Raving Loony Party got 3,898 votes, but not enough to get a seat.

 

[SteamKing]

In Scottish nationalist landslide, 20-year-old student takes seat from Labour
http://news.yahoo.com/scottish-nationalist-landslide-20-old-student-takes-seat-040004140.html

Not only will this student be the youngest MP since 1677, she also beat Labour's election campaign chief, who previously held this seat.

Ouuchh! and Acchh! as the Scots say.

Like the Terminator, he'll be back!​

 

[Vanadium 50]

I feel there is something to be said about the fact that UKIP came third in the popular vote at 12.6% of the vote share, and yet they only got 1 seat. On the other hand, the Lib Dems came fourth at 7.8% but they secured 8 seats.

Ironic, that the LDs benefitted from the very policy they opposed.

 

[PeroK]

Ironic, that the LDs benefitted from the very policy they opposed.

The 8 seats are not worth much. Under PR, 7.8% of the vote would get about 50 seats. The real winners are Conservative and Labour. The Con's 37% got them 331 seats and Labour's 30% got them 232.

The big losers are UKIP, of course, but the system does the Lib Dems no favours. UKIP's nearly 4 million votes (over 12%) for 1 seat must be a record.

 

[f95toli]

I just asked one of our managers if there were any contingency plans now that we know for sure that there will be an in-out referendum for the UK's membership of the EU in 2017.
We -like most research institutes and universities in the UK- get much of our funding from the EU (e.g. FP7 and now H2020), this is also the main mechanism we use to set up formal collaborations with partners in the rest of Europe.
Even the mere fact that there will be a referendum is therefore going to have a huge effect on science in the UK. Starting from today the uncertainty about what would happen if the UK was to leave will make it more difficult to set up collaborations and apply for funding.

I don't even want to think about what would happen if the people in the UK actually voted to leave in 2017. It would be a complete disaster for science in the UK.

 

[mheslep]

UKIP's nearly 4 million votes (over 12%) for 1 seat must be a record.

And an instability: seats out of sync w/ popular votes can't last long.

 

[mheslep]

...It would be a complete disaster for science in the UK.

Is it the case that the UK share of EU science funding is out of proportion? Otherwise, how is leaving the EU a disaster in that regard, as UK contributions to the EU would thereafter stay at home.

 

[Czcibor]

And an instability: seats out of sync w/ popular votes can't last long.

You underestimate the power of majority voting ;)

Yes, with such vote counting algorithm, not only number matters but also their location. As long as they are properly dispersed - that's not a problem.

 

[mheslep]

Yes, with such vote counting algorithm, not only number matters but also their location. As long as they are properly dispersed - that's not a problem.

It can happen, clearly, through dispersal, conflicting tactics, or other manipulations but like a wobbly balance on the head of a pin it is very unlikely to stay that way, not 4 million votes restrained to one seat. Either the voters discount their current common cause as a fad or the seat count grows.

 

[lavoisier]

I thought a bit about the 'majority voting' thing.
A British guy explained me how it works, and it seemed to me that in theory it may sometimes give very different results compared to simple proportionality.
Example: suppose there are 50 constituencies, each with 100 voters. 50 people in each constituency vote for party A, and 50 for another party.
Now, move one A-voter from the first constituency to each of the other 49.
Party A will win in 49 constituencies, giving it 49/50 = 98% of seats, although it still actually has only 50% of people's votes.

OK - this is an extreme case that is probably very unlikely to happen in reality, but is there a mathematical theory of how biased this system can be compared to proportionality?
And does anybody know what the justification was for choosing this system as opposed to a purely proportional one?

 

[SteamKing]

I thought a bit about the 'majority voting' thing.
A British guy explained me how it works, and it seemed to me that in theory it may sometimes give very different results compared to simple proportionality.
Example: suppose there are 50 constituencies, each with 100 voters. 50 people in each constituency vote for party A, and 50 for another party.
Now, move one A-voter from the first constituency to each of the other 49.
Party A will win in 49 constituencies, giving it 49/50 = 98% of seats, although it still actually has only 50% of people's votes.

OK - this is an extreme case that is probably very unlikely to happen in reality, but is there a mathematical theory of how biased this system can be compared to proportionality?
And does anybody know what the justification was for choosing this system as opposed to a purely proportional one?

I doubt there is a mathematical theory underlying most voting systems in the world, as these systems are designed by politicians rather than mathematicians.

In the case of the First Past the Post system, as used in the Parliamentary elections in the UK, I believe this method was chosen to promote the formation of a national two-party system for parliamentary campaigns, rather than having a system, as in some countries, where a large number of smaller parties vie for a majority of seats in the parliament.

I believe that politicians think that a government chosen in this manner will have a clear working majority of votes in the ensuing parliament, and the government will not have to rely on the formation of a coalition in order to secure enough votes to do its business. Coalitions can fall apart quickly, often in times of great national moment, when a more stable government is to be desired.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plurality_voting_system

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_the_United_Kingdom

There are several different voting systems in use in the various democracies around the world, and each has its attractions and drawbacks. The UK has reformed its electoral system a number of times over the last couple of centuries, and there may be further changes ahead. Such is the whim of politics.

One can contrast the number of governments formed in the UK since 1945 versus the number of governments formed in, say, Italy, which has a large number of smaller parties:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Italy

Post 1945 UK governments

Post 1945 Italian governments​

 

[cristo]

This really came out of left field - most people were expecting another hung parliament and, at worst, 5 more years of a con-lib coalition. But now without the lib dems to rein in right of the Tory party, we're in for 5 years of cuts to all public services, including the nhs. Cameron's gamble of an in/out EU referendum is also very scary. I can really see the public voting us out.

In all, a very sad day for the majority of Britons.

 

[SteamKing]

It's almost like you'd expect to see the headline: "Tories Win; Continent Cut Off".

 

[PeroK]

This really came out of left field

It came out of right field, surely?