(CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY) Which probability would you expect to be greater?

[kaleidoscope]

Which probability would you expect to be greater?

(a) The probability that a person is smart given that he has a university degree,

OR,

(b) the probability that a person has a university degree given that he is smart? I would say (a)>(b), but, what would you say?

 

[LCKurtz]

With no data, we're just guessing aren't we. I would guess in agreement with you because I would guess that the proportion of people with university degrees worldwide isn't that large, smart or not.