MHB Cooling Off Period: Probability of Jill Retaliating Over 60 Days

[Steve3]

Could anyone venture a guess or offer comments on the following...

Jill is very P.O.ed at something Jack did. Jill decides to retaliate. Jill's blood is boiling the day after the incident with Jack and is most likely to retaliate that day. On Day 2, Jill has cooled down just a little but has not forgotten about the incident with Jack. However, Jill is less likely to retaliate on Day 2. On Day 3, Jill is even less likely to retaliate. And so on for 60 days after the incident with Jack. On Day 60, Jill has forgotten about the incident with Jack and the probability that Jill will retaliate on Day 60 is 0. Is there a theory in human philosophy that defines for any day out of 60 days the probability that Jill will retaliate? Is there a function for this probability?

 

[pickslides]

Depends on how the urge to retaliate dissipates.

If it was a linear shape then you could consider

Let $X$ be Jill retaliating against Jack and $T$ be the number of days after the initial act by Jack.

Then

\[ P(X) = \begin{cases}
1-\frac{T}{60}, & T \leq 60 \\
0, & T>60 \\
\end{cases}
\]