Dark energy might not be constant after all

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the implications of recent findings related to dark energy and neutrino masses, particularly focusing on the measurements from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and their interpretation. Participants explore the significance of different upper limits on the sum of neutrino masses as presented in a specific research paper.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants highlight the role of DESI in measuring dark energy's effect on the universe's expansion, noting its capability to create a 3D map of galaxies and quasars.
  • Questions arise regarding the interpretation of the upper limits on the sum of neutrino masses, specifically whether 0.072 eV or 0.113 eV should be considered more credible based on the provided research.
  • One participant suggests that the distinction between the two values may serve to illustrate the precision of the results, rather than indicating one value is definitively correct.
  • Another participant argues that the results depend heavily on the assumptions made regarding the lower bounds of neutrino masses, indicating that different assumptions lead to different conclusions.
  • A later reply critiques the use of a non-zero Bayesian prior for the sum of neutrino masses, suggesting it contradicts the principles of Bayesian statistics and should be disregarded.
  • Further discussion includes the consideration of the degenerate case for neutrino masses and its potential contradiction with measured mass differences, questioning the rationale behind its use in the analysis.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the interpretation of the upper limits for neutrino masses, with no consensus reached on which value is more valid. The discussion remains unresolved regarding the implications of the assumptions made in the analysis.

Contextual Notes

Limitations include the dependence on specific assumptions regarding neutrino mass lower bounds and the implications of using Bayesian statistics in this context. The discussion does not resolve these issues.

Filip Larsen
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https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/04/dark-energy-might-not-be-constant-after-all/
https://www.desi.lbl.gov/2024/04/04...recise-measurement-of-the-expanding-universe/

Interesting preliminary indications from DESI (which I did not know about until now).

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI)​

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will measure the effect of dark energy on the expansion of the universe. It will obtain optical spectra for tens of millions of galaxies and quasars, constructing a 3D map spanning the nearby universe to 11 billion light years.
 
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One question:
In https://arxiv.org/pdf/2404.03002.pdf
it is written in the abstract:

1712489258029.png


"upper limit Sum mν < 0.072 (0.113) eV at 95% confidence for a Sum mν > 0 (Sum mν > 0.059) eV prior."

To which value we can believe more, 0.072 eV, or to 0.113 eV?
 
exponent137 said:
One question:
In https://arxiv.org/pdf/2404.03002.pdf
it is written in the abstract:

View attachment 342927

"upper limit Sum mν < 0.072 (0.113) eV at 95% confidence for a Sum mν > 0 (Sum mν > 0.059) eV prior."

To which value we can believe more, 0.072 eV, or to 0.113 eV?
As noted in the main text,
1712490589503.png
 
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So, is 0.113 eV the more correct answer? Let us ignore IH. What is the point of 0.072 eV? To show that the results are more precise?
 
Last edited:
exponent137 said:
So, is 0.113 eV the more correct answer? Let us ignore IH. What is the point of 0.072 eV? To show that the results are more precise?
It's not that it's 'more correct'. The result is dependent on what one assumes is the correct lower bound for the sum of neutrino masses. If you assume one thing, it's that. If you assume another, it's the other thing.
They have to assume something, because it's not known. But there are good reasons to pick some specific values, for which they show the corresponding results.

The relevant bit is in section 7.1 (second paragraph).
 
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exponent137 said:
One question:
In https://arxiv.org/pdf/2404.03002.pdf
it is written in the abstract:

View attachment 342927

"upper limit Sum mν < 0.072 (0.113) eV at 95% confidence for a Sum mν > 0 (Sum mν > 0.059) eV prior."

To which value we can believe more, 0.072 eV, or to 0.113 eV?
The second. The merely non-zero Bayesian prior for the sum of the three neutrino masses is contrary to the whole point of using Bayesian statistics (which is to incorporate information that you already know in a prior), and should just be ignored as meaningless.
 
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Bandersnatch said:
It's not that it's 'more correct'. The result is dependent on what one assumes is the correct lower bound for the sum of neutrino masses. If you assume one thing, it's that. If you assume another, it's the other thing.
They have to assume something, because it's not known. But there are good reasons to pick some specific values, for which they show the corresponding results.

The relevant bit is in section 7.1 (second paragraph).

I read. One option is for the degenerate case. I suppose that this option is contrary to the measured mass differences of neutrinos? If it is in contradiction with measurements, why it is used? Maybe because it gives some simplified information?
 
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