I split the discussion.
sophiecentaur said:
How sure can we be that a target asteroid can be treated as one solid lump an that the impact will not result in a large part of it just continuing nearly on its original course?
The target is very large. Unless DART hits very close to the edge it cannot fly through independent of the composition of the object. Even water with the same volume would stop DART. That part of the momentum change is guaranteed if DART doesn't miss.
sophiecentaur said:
Serious egg on face (or worse) if some of the asteroid ended up coming our way.
This is not a risk. It's nowhere close to an Earth-crossing orbit. I mean... some ejected pebbles might, obviously, but that's not a concern.
For an impact scenario that's at least a few orbits in the future the most effective approach is generally a kick in the direction of motion - forward or backward, depending on what's easier in terms of orbital dynamics and predicted path for the impact. That changes the orbital period, so the distance to the undisturbed position keeps increasing over time. A deflection orthogonal to the direction of motion only changes the shape of the orbit but keeps the period unchanged, so the effect of the deflection doesn't increase over time.
If the object makes a close fly-by before a potential collision then we can achieve a much larger deflection, as a small change in the fly-by geometry will lead to a larger change in the orbit afterwards.
hutchphd said:
But what if you can split the body and make part go faster (and not hit earth) and part go slower (and not hit earth).
Splitting an asteroid deliberately, and doing it with such a precision, is pure science fiction.
sophiecentaur said:
That [changing orbital speed] seems to be a common way of manoeuvering craft in orbit. I imagine that's because time, position and direction of the craft (in this case asteroid) are known accurately and errors in direction of engine impulse have least effect when applied forward or reverse.
No, they have the
largest effect, just like the propulsion itself. That's why it is done whenever possible - maximal effect for a given amount of fuel.
sophiecentaur said:
Rather like a course to settle a craft into orbit with a planet with minimal fuel use, the courses of planet and craft are arranged to coincide and be more or less parallel and similar speeds.
Spacecraft don't do that, it would be a waste of fuel. It's more efficient to have any intersecting trajectory and then slow down (relative to the planet) when the spacecraft is at its closest approach.
Dawn was an exception, it approached Vesta and Ceres slowly because it only had an ion thruster so it couldn't use the conventional approach - but it only flew to asteroids, not planets.
sophiecentaur said:
Corrections of the asteroid orbit at the apogee are easiest, I understand.
If you want to change the perigee, yes. If you want to change the apogee you should do it at perigee. Usually you don't want to change either of them in particular, you want to change the orbital period which can be done at any time. Finding a suitable trajectory from Earth is more important. That might take years for some objects, but in this case it's under a single year to the September 2022 impact.
berkeman said:
Sorry, if conservation of momentum works in inelastic collisions, how does ejected material change anything? The CoM of the system of the asteroid and the interceptor stays the same, right? Or is the objective to eject lots of low-mass stuff one way, and thus push the asteroid the other way?
The material is ejected from the impact site, so it is directional.
Toy scenario with rounded numbers for simplicity: DART at 500 kg impacts at 6 km/s. A perfect inelastic collision with no debris would transfer 3,000,000 kg m/s momentum to the asteroid. The impact releases 9 GJ of energy. If e.g. 1 GJ of that energy kicks 100 tonnes away from the surface it will leave at a typical velocity of ~150 m/s. About 100 m/s of that will be against DART's flight direction (and ~100 m/s orthogonal to it in random directions), adding another 10,000,000 kg m/s momentum change in the same direction, three times the primary momentum transfer using just ~10% of the energy. Will 10% of the energy go into ejected debris, or is it 1%, or 0.1%, or 30%? Will it be of the order of 100 tonnes, or 10, or 1000, or whatever? Instead of just assuming a typical velocity, what will the distribution be? All these questions matter.