Deriving probability distributions

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around deriving the probability distribution of a random variable, X, that follows a Gamma distribution when its shape parameter, α, is itself a random variable following a binomial distribution. Participants explore the implications of this setup and the mathematical relationships involved.

Discussion Character

  • Technical explanation
  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant proposes that if α is a random variable following a binomial distribution, the distribution of X could be represented as a product of a binomial distribution and a Gamma distribution.
  • Another participant counters this by stating that the correct approach involves using conditional probability and summing over all possible values of α to find the marginal distribution of X.
  • There is a discussion about the notation used, particularly the meaning of f(X=x|α) and the relationship between conditional and joint probabilities.
  • A participant expresses curiosity about the implications of using a Poisson distribution for α, suggesting it may lead to an interesting distribution.
  • One participant questions the appropriateness of summation versus integration in the context of continuous distributions, specifically regarding the Gamma distribution.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach consensus on the initial proposal regarding the representation of the distribution of X. There are competing views on the correct mathematical approach, particularly concerning the treatment of the random variable α and the resulting distribution of X.

Contextual Notes

The discussion includes unresolved aspects regarding the transition from a discrete to a continuous distribution and the implications of using different distributions for α. There is also a lack of clarity on the specific form of the resulting distribution when α is Poisson distributed.

bioman
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Suppose I had a random variable, X, that followed a Gamma distribution.
A Gamma distribution can be defined as \Gamma(\alpha,\beta), where \alpha and \beta are the 'scale' and 'shape' parameters.
Now suppose if \alpha was a random variable, say following a binomial distribution, how would I then represent the distribution of X.

I was thinking that since the parameter \alpha now represents a random variable, the distribution of X, would simply be a binomial distribution multiplied by a Gamma distribution?
Would it be correct to do this??
 
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No. That is wrong.

X|\alpha is distributed as \Gamma(\alpha,\beta) and \alpha is distributed as Bin(n,p).

Therefore, f(X=x|\alpha)f_\alpha(\alpha)=f_{(x,\alpha)}(x,\alpha).

Now, to get the distribution of x, you just sum over all alpha. That is,

f_x(x)=\sum_{i=0}^nf(X=x|\alpha=i)f_\alpha(\alpha=i).

I'm not sure what this distribution is as I haven't calculated it yet. I doubt it will reduce to something familiar.

However! If alpha was distributed as poisson then it becomes an interesting distribution which is a really good exercise.

If you don't understand any of this just say so.
 
Last edited:
Thanks for the help ZioX, much appreciated!
I had a feeling I wasn't doing it right... but I'm not too sure I fully understand what you're doing. I think I get the gist of what you're doing, but just getting a bit bogged down with the mathematical notation you're using.

So firstly I presume that
X|\alpha
means "the random variable X given alpha"?
But what exactly, (in words), do you mean by
f(X=x|\alpha)f_\alpha(\alpha)=f_{(x,\alpha)}(x,\alpha)


Also, I'm curious as to why you say, it would be interesting if alpha was distributed as Poisson, as this is one of the cases I will also be looking at!
Is there some standard distribution that comes out when you use a Poisson??
 
I'm slightly confused about the answer that's given here. I needed to find the distribution of X|\alpha, where X|\alpha is distributed as a Gamma, \Gamma(\alpha,\beta), and \alpha is distributed as Bin(n,p).

The answer was to the (marginal) distribution of X, you sum over to get f_x(x)=\sum_{i=0}^nf(X=x|\alpha=i)f_\alpha(\alpha= i)

But if X is gamma distributed, and a gamma distribution is a continuous distribution, then shouldn't the above formulae be an intregal rather than a summation??
 

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