Determine the confidence interval

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating confidence intervals for sodium and PCB content in water samples from Lake Macatawa and Lake Michigan, respectively. Participants explore statistical methods for determining sample means, variances, and confidence intervals under the assumption of normal distribution.

Discussion Character

  • Technical explanation
  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Homework-related

Main Points Raised

  • One participant calculates the sample mean for sodium content from Lake Macatawa and questions its correctness.
  • Another participant confirms the correctness of the sample mean and variance calculations, clarifying that the standard deviation used in confidence interval calculations should be the sample standard deviation, not the population standard deviation.
  • Participants discuss the formula for the confidence interval, confirming the use of the sample standard deviation and the appropriate t-distribution quantile for the confidence level.
  • There is a calculation presented for the confidence interval using the sample mean, sample variance, and t-distribution quantile, with participants expressing uncertainty about the correctness of the final interval values.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants generally agree on the calculations for the sample mean and variance. However, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding the application of the confidence interval formula and the correctness of the resulting interval values.

Contextual Notes

Participants rely on the assumption of normal distribution for their calculations. The discussion includes unresolved questions about the quantiles and the exact values used in the confidence interval calculations.

mathmari
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Hey! 😊

(a) In winter, the roads around Lake Macatawa are salted. To study the impact of this on Lake Macatawa, students took $32$ water samples from the western basin of the lake and Sodium content (in parts per million, ppm) determined. As a result, the students have receive the following data:
1643538010837.png


(i) Calculate the sample mean.
(ii) Calculate the adjusted sample variance.
(iii) Assume a normal distribution and determine a two-sided confidence interval for the above sample for the mean sodium content with a confidence level of $0.95$. Also enter the used quantile and its (approximate) value.(b) In addition, $35$ water samples were collected from the eastern basin of Lake Macatawa and in each case the sodium content (in ppm) was measured. This resulted in a sample mean of $24.11$ and an adjusted sample variance of $24.44$. Assume a normal distribution.
(i) Determine a two-sided confidence interval for the mean sodium content with a confidence level of $0.9$. Also enter the quantile used and its (approximate) value.
(ii) Determine a confidence interval of the form $(-\infty, h]$ for the mean sodium content with a confidence level of $0.9$. Also state the one used quantile and its (approximate) value.(c) The PCB content was determined from a sample of fish from Lake Michigan (in ppm). It is known that the standard deviation is $0.8$ ppm. Assume a normal distribution. The below were measured:
1643539615613.png


(i) Calculate the sample mean and determine a two-sided confidence interval for the above sample for the mean PCB content with a confidence level of $0.99$. Also enter the used quantile and its
(approximate) value.
(ii) Determine a confidence interval of the form $(-\infty, h]$ for the above sample for the mean PCB content with a confidence level of $0.99$. Give also the quantile used and its (approximate) value.
I have done the following :

(a) (i) We add all elements and divide the result by the number of elements. So the sample mean is equal to \begin{align*}\overline{x}_{32}=& \frac{1}{32}\left(13.0 +18.5 +16.4 +14.8 +19.4+ 17.3 +23.2 +24.9 +20.8 +19.3 +18.8 +23.1 +15.2+ 19.9 +19.1+ 18.1 +25.1+ 16.8+ 20.4 +17.4 +25.2+ 23.1 +15.3+ 19.4 +16.0 +21.7 +15.2+ 21.3+ 21.5 +16.8+ 15.6 +17.6 \right )\\ & =\frac{1}{32}\cdot 610.2=19.06875\end{align*} Is that correct ? :unsure:

(ii) We have that \begin{align*}s_{32}^2&=\frac{1}{32-1}\sum_{i=1}^{32}(x_i-\overline{x}_{32})^2=\frac{1}{31}((13.0-19.06875)^2 +(18.5-19.06875)^2 +(16.4-19.06875)^2 \\ &+(14.8-19.06875)^2 +(19.4-19.06875)^2+ (17.3-19.06875)^2 +(23.2-19.06875)^2 \\ &+(24.9-19.06875)^2 +(20.8-19.06875)^2 +(19.3-19.06875)^2 +(18.8-19.06875)^2 \\ &+(23.1-19.06875)^2 +(15.2-19.06875)^2+ (19.9-19.06875)^2 +(19.1-19.06875)^2\\ &+ (18.1-19.06875)^2 +(25.1-19.06875)^2+ (16.8-19.06875)^2+ (20.4-19.06875)^2 \\ &+(17.4-19.06875)^2 +(25.2-19.06875)^2+ (23.1-19.06875)^2 +(15.3-19.06875)^2\\ &+ (19.4-19.06875)^2 +(16.0-19.06875)^2 +(21.7-19.06875)^2 +(15.2-19.06875)^2\\ &+ (21.3-19.06875)^2+ (21.5-19.06875)^2 +(16.8-19.06875)^2+ (15.6-19.06875)^2 \\ &+(17.6-19.06875)^2 )\\ & = \frac{1}{31}\cdot 328.54875\\ & \approx 10.59835\end{align*} Is that correct ? :unsure:

(iii) Do we use the formula \begin{equation*}\left [M(x)-\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}q_{1-\frac{a}{2}},M(x)+\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}q_{1-\frac{a}{2}}\right ] \end{equation*} where $M(x)$is the mean, i.e. $M(x)=19.06875$ ? Is $\sigma$ equal to the square root of the result of (b) ? The value of $q$ is related to the confidence level, right? :unsure:
 
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Hey mathmari!

a.i and a.ii look correct to me. (Nod)
In a.iii we do not have $\sigma$, which is unknown. Instead we have $s$, which is the standard deviation of the sample. It is indeed the square root of the result of a.ii.

The value of $q$ is indeed related to the confidence interval. Can we find it? 🤔
 
Klaas van Aarsen said:
In a.iii we do not have $\sigma$, which is unknown. Instead we have $s$, which is the standard deviation of the sample. It is indeed the square root of the result of a.ii.

The value of $q$ is indeed related to the confidence interval. Can we find it? 🤔

Ahh ok!

So we use the formula $$\left [M(x)-\frac{\sqrt{V^{\star}}}{\sqrt{n}}t_{n-1,1-a/2}, \ M(x)+\frac{\sqrt{V^{\star}}}{\sqrt{n}}t_{n-1,1-a/2}\right ]$$ right?
Do we have $V^{\star}=s_{32}^2=10.59835$, $M(x)= 19.06875 $ and $t_{n-1,1-a/2}=t_{31,0.975}= 2,037$ ? :unsure:

So we get \begin{equation*}\left [19.06875-\frac{\sqrt{10.59835}}{\sqrt{32}}\cdot 2.037, \ 19.06875+\frac{\sqrt{10.59835}}{\sqrt{32}}\cdot 2.037\right ]\approx \left [17.89646, \ 20.24104\right ]\end{equation*} right? :unsure:
 
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mathmari said:
Ahh ok!

So we use the formula $$\left [M(x)-\frac{\sqrt{V^{\star}}}{\sqrt{n}}t_{n-1,1-a/2}, \ M(x)+\frac{\sqrt{V^{\star}}}{\sqrt{n}}t_{n-1,1-a/2}\right ]$$ right?
Do we have $V^{\star}=s_{32}^2=10.59835$, $M(x)= 19.06875 $ and $t_{n-1,1-a/2}=t_{31,0.975}= 2,037$ ?

So we get \begin{equation*}\left [19.06875-\frac{\sqrt{10.59835}}{\sqrt{32}}\cdot 2.037, \ 19.06875+\frac{\sqrt{10.59835}}{\sqrt{32}}\cdot 2.037\right ]\approx \left [17.89646, \ 20.24104\right ]\end{equation*} right?
Looks right to me. (Nod)
 

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