phinds said:
Yes, it has one or the other, we just don't know which.
Hi phinds:
Although this thread is 18 months old, the same point seems to recur, as in #48 of
I am wondering if it is possible for us to agree that some aspects of science are "known", and the remainder aspects cannot be known ever.
Category 1: Knowable and known. Example: For phenomena taking place over extremely large spaces, General Relativity produces more accurate predictions than Newtonian physics.
Category 2: Unknown and unknowable. Example: Is the universe finite or infinite?
With respect to example (2), it will generally be possible as time passes to have some degree of confidence greater than 0.5 that (a) the universe is more likely to be finite, or (b) more likely to be infinite. If I remember correctly from past reading, there was no time during the past 100 years during which the general scientific consensus was (a). Since the early 20th century it has always been (b) or undecided. The confidence level will never be 100% for any category 2 knowledge.
I found the following 2005 paper which gives a basis for calculating a probability that the universe is infinite.
https://www.researchgate.net/deref/http%3A%2F%2Farxiv.org%2Fabs%2Fgr-qc%2F0501061
On the first page is the equation:
ΩT,0 = 1.02 +/- 0.04 .
I understand that Ω
T = Ω
M + Ω
Λ , where Ω
M is the matter density, and Ω
Λ is what may be called the "dark energy density". (It is assumed that the radiation density is negligible.) This means that statistically possible values for Ω
K, the "curvature density", has a mean of -0.02 and a standard deviation of 0.04. Based on this assumed Gaussian distribution, the probability that the universe is infinite is
PROB {ΩK <= 0} = 0.84.
My research skills are not very good, and I have not been able to find more recent corresponding data.
So, can we agree that it is OK to say that based on the 2005 data used in the cited paper, (1) the best probability estimate that universe is infinite is 84%, and (2) that no matter how much better new data becomes, this estimate will never become 100%?
Regards,
Buzz