Doubling Computing Power Every Year: Where Will We Be in 50 Years?

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SUMMARY

Computing power doubles approximately every year at an economic price, primarily due to the ability to fit more transistors into smaller spaces. Current projections indicate that quantum limitations will not be reached for at least 50 years. However, software performance is deteriorating faster than hardware improvements, as highlighted by Wirth's Law, which states that "software is getting slower more rapidly than hardware becomes faster." This creates a paradox where users may find themselves waiting longer for computer boot times despite advancements in hardware.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of Moore's Law and its implications on transistor density
  • Familiarity with Wirth's Law regarding software performance
  • Basic knowledge of quantum computing principles
  • Awareness of current computing hardware trends and limitations
NEXT STEPS
  • Research the implications of Moore's Law on future computing architectures
  • Explore advancements in quantum computing and their potential impact on traditional computing
  • Investigate software optimization techniques to counteract Wirth's Law
  • Examine trends in semiconductor manufacturing and transistor technology
USEFUL FOR

Technology enthusiasts, computer scientists, software developers, and anyone interested in the future of computing and software performance optimization.

slimjim
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says that computing power at an economic price roughly doubles every year.



this relies on the fact that we can stuff more transistors into smaller spaces.

we won't reach quantum limitations until atleast 50 years.


where will we (humans) be by than?
 
Physics news on Phys.org
Right here.
 
Where will we be?

Right here waiting for our computers to boot up.

"software is getting slower more rapidly than hardware becomes faster" (Wirth's law).
 

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