Energy Poverty in Australia: COVID Lockdowns Drove Costs Up 50%

[BWV]

To try to keep this focused on the OP, central to the issue raised by the OP is the apparent mismatch between perception and reality when it comes to renewables: Renewables are (apparently) cheap, so why does installing nenewables make electricity more expensive instead of less expensive? That's the question I'm answering.

Its not a simplistic equation, many other factors at play. My point was only that where you have real market-based decisions rather than gov fiat, renewables are competitive and do not translate into higher retail prices

 

[BWV]

What is the cost of nat gas in Australia - ~$7 AUD / gigajoule?

at 0.77 exchange and 947.82 CF / GJ = ~$5.10 USD / MFC compared to current Henry Hub of ~$2.75. While Australia is a net exporter of natural gas, the size of the country and lack of pipelines mean some locations require LNG

Only the US and Canada have cheap natural gas from fracking, so all this discussion about building more gas generation is likely not applicable outside North America

 

[russ_watters]

I get the distinction between gWh and gW. In 2019 natural gas was 43% of installed capacity (gW) and produced 38% of US electricity (gWh). Non-hydro renewables were 14% of installed capacity and generated 10% of total electricity.

What does that tell us? What's the connection between those numbers (if any), and between them and the discussion we are having?

But gas generation varies quite a bit, electricity production from both gas and coal declined in 2016-17 and 2014-15 saw a 1194k gWh decline in coal relative to a 200k gWh imcrease in gas and relatively flat total YOY generation

Yes, that's true. What does that tell us relevant to the current discussion? Are we talking about the weather now?

Its not a simplistic equation, many other factors at play.

Yes, I believe that's what I said that started this part of the discussion.

My point was only that where you have real market-based decisions rather than gov fiat, renewables are competitive and do not translate into higher retail prices.

I know that's your point. It's factually wrong. Really, really wrong. Since you bring in government fiat, why do you think California has such high renewable adoption? It's because they subsidize it heavily ("government fiat"). And that cost doesn't factor into LCOE either. In other words, despite spending tons of money to implement renewables that doesn't show up in the retail price, the retail price is still high/rising. It's an additional level of wrong.

Note: your sources are mismatched again. We're discussing intermittent renewables, and the bottom chart is total renewables. The Hoover Dam is not part of this discussion; it operates under a totally different economics than solar/wind.