Estimate Probability of Excel Data Analysis Results

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around estimating the probability that a calculated average annual rainfall from 1990-2012 is consistent with a long-term mean annual rainfall from 1948-2012, assuming a Gaussian distribution. The focus includes statistical methods for comparison of means.

Discussion Character

  • Technical explanation
  • Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • One participant seeks guidance on estimating the probability that the average rainfall of 50.2mm (1990-2012) aligns with a long-term mean of 51.6mm (1948-2012), suggesting a potential function or method.
  • Another participant inquires about standard methods for comparing two sets of statistics.
  • A different participant proposes using the NORM.DIST function as a potential solution for the probability estimation.
  • Another response suggests using the Student's t-test to assess whether the difference in means is statistically significant.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

There is no consensus on the best method to use for the probability estimation, as participants suggest different approaches and tools.

Contextual Notes

The discussion does not clarify the assumptions behind the Gaussian distribution or the specific conditions under which the proposed statistical tests would be applicable.

izzy93
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Not sure where to post this question, but here goes

In excel I have calculated the average annual rain for the period 1990-2012 to be 50.2mm . How do you estimate the probability that this measured average (1990-2012) is consistent with the long term mean annual rain for the period 1948-2012 (assuming a gaussian distribution) which I calculated to be 51.6mm?

Is there some sort of function or is this simpler than I'm imagining...

any help much appreciated

thanks
 
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How would you normally compare two sets of statistics?
 
Hi, I've come up with a solution I think. Going to use the NORM.DIST function

thanks for the reply though
 

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