Estimation for a Graph Theory problem

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SUMMARY

This discussion focuses on estimating the expected number of iterations required for a graph with 20 nodes to become connected by randomly selecting 4 nodes at a time and adding edges among them. The user proposes that the process can be modeled by calculating the probability of selecting unpicked nodes in successive rounds, with the chance of success increasing with each iteration. The calculations provided suggest that the minimum probability of achieving a connected graph within 5 rounds is approximately 3.84%, with further detailed probability calculations yielding a very low minimum chance of 0.0000114%. This highlights the complexity of the problem and the need for a thorough understanding of combinatorial probability.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of basic graph theory concepts, specifically connected graphs.
  • Familiarity with combinatorial probability and permutations.
  • Knowledge of random sampling techniques in probability theory.
  • Ability to perform factorial calculations and understand their implications in probability.
NEXT STEPS
  • Research "Markov Chains in Graph Theory" to understand state transitions in connected graphs.
  • Study "Expected Value in Probability" to gain insights into estimating iterations in random processes.
  • Learn about "Monte Carlo Simulations" for practical applications in estimating probabilities in complex scenarios.
  • Explore "Combinatorial Game Theory" for advanced strategies in random selection problems.
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Mathematicians, computer scientists, and data analysts interested in graph theory, probability estimation, and combinatorial analysis will benefit from this discussion.

chingkui
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I am thinking about this problem that come up in some of my work, I think this has been solved before, though I am not aware where I could find the solution. Here is the question:
Suppose a graph has say 20 nodes with no edge initially, and at each instance, 4 (different) nodes are randomly drawn with equal probability and all 6 edges among them are added to the graph. How do I estimate the expected number of iterations before the graph become connected (just connected, no need to be completed)? Thanks.
 
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I feel that I should include I am not an expert by any means, but here is how I would approach it.

So all you really need is the 20 nodes and 4 picked each time right, I think the graph will be connected once every node is picked once regardless of the extra 2 edges they don't matter, I don't know the answer, but I think the question could be asked "Picking 4 at a time, how long does it take for all 20 to be picked at random?" I guess one answer is that the number of rounds lies in the interval [5,∞).
The chance goes up with every round, with a minimal chance of 5!/(5^5) = 3.84%

for the 5 rounds to work, you have to get unpicked nodes every round and you'd have a first round with a 20/20 chance of getting an unpicked node, second round, 16/20 chance of getting an unpicked node,3rd 12/20 and so on, which reduces to 5/5,4/5,3/5,2/5,1/5, from which you get the above. How you would figure the chances if it didn't go perfect I am not sure of, sorry.
 
And actually that is bad, each round would break into the 4 individual draws? So you'd have 1*16/20*15/19*14/18*13/17*12/20*11/19...

so: [itex]\frac{20!}{(20^5)(19^5)(18^5)(17^5)} =\frac{20!}{(\frac{20!}{16!})^5} = .000000114 = .0000114%[/itex]% chance as a minimum?
 
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