Estimation - Student-t distribution - Confidence Level

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SUMMARY

This discussion focuses on calculating the confidence level for the proportion of axle shafts with surface defects in a batch of 1800, based on a sample of 150 shafts. The sample indicates that the defect rate lies between 15% and 25%, leading to an average defect rate of 20% and a margin of error (ME) of 5%. Participants explore the use of the Student's t-distribution to determine the confidence level, with calculations involving the standard deviation of the proportion and the t statistic. The final calculations yield a confidence level of 1, indicating a complete certainty in the estimate, although participants express confusion regarding the application of the formulas.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of confidence intervals and margin of error in statistics
  • Familiarity with the Student's t-distribution and its applications
  • Knowledge of standard deviation calculations for proportions
  • Ability to perform statistical calculations using sample data
NEXT STEPS
  • Learn how to calculate confidence intervals for proportions using the formula: CI = p ± Z*(sqrt(p(1-p)/n))
  • Study the application of the Student's t-distribution in estimating confidence levels
  • Explore the concept of margin of error and its significance in statistical analysis
  • Investigate the use of statistical software for performing these calculations, such as R or Python's SciPy library
USEFUL FOR

Statisticians, quality control analysts, and students studying statistical methods for estimating proportions and confidence levels in manufacturing processes.

masterchiefo
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Homework Statement


[/B]
A company produces batches of 1800 axle shafts . These are tested to determine the proportion of those with too rough surface according to the standards set in the industry.

The quality control department of a sample of 150 axle shafts in a lot and concluded that there are between 15 % and 25 % of the axle shafts in this set that are outside the norms . Calculate the confidence level associated with this estimate.

Homework Equations


tn-1,sigma/2=(ME)/((s/sqrt(n))* (sqrt(1-(n/N)))
(1-sigma)=tcdf(-tn-1,sigma/2,+tn-1,sigma/2,n-1)

The Attempt at a Solution


Known variable:
N = 1800
n=150
[15%,25%] ---> average= (15+25)/2 =20% or 0.20
ME = (25-15)/2 = 5% or 0.05

Unknown variable:
(1-sigma)
Average of N
Standard Deviation of nI am stuck here, I cannot continue without knowing SD.
 
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This is a proportion. So, standard deviation of a proportion is
##\sqrt{p(1-p)}.##
 
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RUber said:
This is a proportion. So, standard deviation of a proportion is
##\sqrt{p(1-p)}.##
Hello,

I don't understand, what would be p ?
 
RUber said:
This is a proportion. So, standard deviation of a proportion is
##\sqrt{p(1-p)}.##
do I still use Student -t formula ?
 
I did that:
p=(15%+25%)/2 =0.2
s= √p(1−p) = √0.2(1−0.2) = 0.4
t=(ME)/((s/sqrt(n))* (sqrt(1-(n/N)))
t = 0.05/((0.4/sqrt(150))* (sqrt(1-(150/1800)))
(1-sigma)=tcdf(-t,+t,n-1)
(1-sigma) = 1

It does not work :(
anyone please help me.
 
masterchiefo said:
I did that:
p=(15%+25%)/2 =0.2
s= √p(1−p) = √0.2(1−0.2) = 0.4
t=(ME)/((s/sqrt(n))* (sqrt(1-(n/N)))
t = 0.05/((0.4/sqrt(150))* (sqrt(1-(150/1800)))
(1-sigma)=tcdf(-t,+t,n-1)
I am not sure what you last line is doing.
Normally, you would take your calculate t standard error of the proportion...in this case:
t=(ME)/((s/sqrt(n))* (sqrt(1-(n/N))) = .031,
And compare that to your range ( +/- 5% ) .
This gives you an idea of what your ##t_{\frac{\alpha}{2}, df}## should be equal to.
 
masterchiefo said:

Homework Statement


[/B]
A company produces batches of 1800 axle shafts . These are tested to determine the proportion of those with too rough surface according to the standards set in the industry.

The quality control department of a sample of 150 axle shafts in a lot and concluded that there are between 15 % and 25 % of the axle shafts in this set that are outside the norms . Calculate the confidence level associated with this estimate.

Homework Equations


tn-1,sigma/2=(ME)/((s/sqrt(n))* (sqrt(1-(n/N)))
(1-sigma)=tcdf(-tn-1,sigma/2,+tn-1,sigma/2,n-1)

The Attempt at a Solution


Known variable:
N = 1800
n=150
[15%,25%] ---> average= (15+25)/2 =20% or 0.20
ME = (25-15)/2 = 5% or 0.05

Unknown variable:
(1-sigma)
Average of N
Standard Deviation of nI am stuck here, I cannot continue without knowing SD.

Google "confidence interval for proportion".
 

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