Fermi Paradox

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Main Question or Discussion Point

Can someone explain the rare earth hypothesis and the Gaian bottleneck hypothesis in detail. What are some thoughts on the Drake equation?
 

Answers and Replies

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Rather than explain these to you, we suggest that you use google search to find more information about them. I have collected a few articles that can explain them to you for now. Since this topic isn't considered mainstream science, we will keep this thread closed.

First the Drake equation where the various probability factors are taken into account to determine the probability of life on other planets:

https://bigthink.com/stephen-johnson/are-we-the-only-intelligent-life-in-the-universe-updated-drake-equation-suggests-yes

Each probability factor in the equation is an expert guess but still a guess meaning we can't prove it one way or another which means the resultant probability is also a guess.

The Rare Earth hypothesis is simply that we are one in a billion occurrence in the universe:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_Earth_hypothesis

The Rare Earth hypothesis argues that planets with complex life, like Earth, are exceptionally rare
In planetary astronomy and astrobiology, the Rare Earth hypothesis argues that the origin of life and the evolution of biological complexitysuch as sexually reproducing, multicellular organisms on Earth (and, subsequently, human intelligence) required an improbable combination of astrophysical and geological events and circumstances.

According to the hypothesis, complex extraterrestrial life is an improbable phenomenon and likely to be rare. The term "Rare Earth" originates from Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe (2000), a book by Peter Ward, a geologist and paleontologist, and Donald E. Brownlee, an astronomer and astrobiologist, both faculty members at the University of Washington.

A contrary view was argued in the 1970s and 1980s by Carl Sagan and Frank Drake, among others. It holds that Earth is a typical rocky planet in a typical planetary system, located in a non-exceptional region of a common barred-spiral galaxy. Given the principle of mediocrity (in the same vein as the Copernican principle), it is probable that we are typical, and the universe teems with complex life. However, Ward and Brownlee argue that planets, planetary systems, and galactic regions that are as friendly to complex life as the Earth, the Solar System, and our galactic region are rare.
and for the Gaian Bottleneck Hypothesis we have:

https://bigthink.com/natalie-shoemaker/scientists-say-the-gaian-bottleneck-scenario-explains-why-aliens-havent-contacted-us
 

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