- #1

CivilSigma

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**Problem Statement:**I obtain monthly maximum temperature values for the last 30 years, and I fit the data to a statistical model. Now, I want to find the 50-year return period maximum temperature.

**Relevant Equations:**P(X>x) = 1/R

I was having a discussion with my "Prof" for one of my classes about return period and I would like a second opinion on what he told me.

The problem:

I obtain monthly maximum temperature values for the last 30 years, and I fit the data to a statistical model. Now, I want to find the 50-year return period maximum temperature.

For me, that simply means finding P(X>x)= 1/50 = 0.02 , with no significance given to the units of time.

But, my prof insists that if we are looking for the 50-year return period, we need to actually find the 50*12= 600 month return period, i.e P(X>x) = 1/600.

I completely disagree with this as it makes no sense. The entire notion of return period is originally independent of units, and is just a way to communicate a percentage of exceedance in a more humane way.

Thank you,