For those aurora chasers -- a heads up

[davenn]

A large coronal hole is about to become geo-effective. Another 24 hrs and it will be face on to earth.
3-4 days from now Auroral activity can be expected in high latitude locations of the northern and southern hemispheres
Nthrn Europe, Canada, nthrn USA. Southern Australia ( mainly Tasmania) and southern South Is. of New Zealand

Dave

Yes, it does look like Italy

 

[davenn]

An update
An official geomagnetic disturbance warning released
tho this released by the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia, it is quite applicable for both high latitude regions of nthrn and sthrn hemispheres

SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 17/41
ISSUED AT 2321UT/29 AUGUST 2017
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

Activity is due to recurrent coronal hole. Australia should expect
Unsettled to Active conditions with possible isolated periods
of Minor Storming over Hobart.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FROM 31 AUGUST 2017 TO 01 SEPTEMBER 2017
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
31 Aug: Active
01 Sep: Active

Space Weather Services WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorologycheers
Dave

 

[davenn]

Lady Aurora was dancing across the far nthrn and sthrn hemisphere skies last nite
haven't seen too many photos from the north as yet ... but have seen many from the south

those of you on facebook may like to check this group out ( not my group, just one I belong to)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/aur...group_comment_reply&notif_id=1504210996200033Solar wind speeds got up to around 650 km/sec at their peakDave

 

[DrClaude]

Lady Aurora was dancing across the far nthrn and sthrn hemisphere skies last nite
haven't seen too many photos from the north as yet ... but have seen many from the south

those of you on facebook may like to check this group out ( not my group, just one I belong to)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/aur...group_comment_reply&notif_id=1504210996200033Solar wind speeds got up to around 650 km/sec at their peakDave

It's rainy in my part of the North, so I didn't see anything.

 

[davenn]

It's rainy in my part of the North, so I didn't see anything.

dang ... but you do live in one of the right regions for aurora observing

I will continue to post alerts and you hopefully will strike it right one nite

Dave

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Looks like, due to the Sun's "flare and CME party" these days (today is Thu 7 Sept, 2017), it's aurora time again. It's good to have an aurora update thread, thanks to Dave!

 

[davenn]

@DrClaude
and anyone else in the far north or far south

keep an eye on the northern sky over the next couple of nights
The CME from an X9.3 flare should be arriving and is predicted to cause major geomagnetic storm conditionsDave

 

[davenn]

Severe geomagnetic storm conditions are under way with a Kp = 8
Those in nthrn USA, Canada, Alaska and Europe still in dark hours should be having an outstanding view !

 

[UsableThought]

Those in nthrn USA, Canada, Alaska and Europe still in dark hours should be having an outstanding view

Some questions from a complete novice; and in a location probably much too far south:

1) We are at 42° N, roughly middle of New York State. The NOAA animated map at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov seems to suggest that visibility will extend, at best, only to the very top of New York State. This is with Kp = 8, from what I read. E.g. from looking at this page explaining the Kp index, it seems as if Kp = 9 is as high as the index has gone historically; might that be enough to get down to 42° N?

2) If we got lucky and visibility might extend as far as south as we are for a big event, how good a horizon to the north would we need?

3) I'm assuming that both light pollution (we are in a rural suburb, a good deal of light pollution to the east of us) and moonlight would be hostile to seeing a faint phenomenon? We have nearly a full moon at present, up all night.

Thanks -

 

[davenn]

3) If we got lucky and visibility might extend as far as south as we are for a big event, how good a horizon to the north would we need?

extending just brings it right overhead
otherwise under these conditions you would have probably have seen it well above the horizon

4) I'm assuming that both light pollution (we are in a rural suburb, a good deal of light pollution to the east of us) and moonlight would be hostile to seeing a faint phenomenon? We have nearly a full moon at present, up all night.

yes they are ... need a reasonably dark site away from all the street lights. At it peak, 4 - 5 hrs ago (post#8)
it would have been well visible and probably with easy colour

I have seen some nice aurora pix even with a bright moonDave

 

[DrClaude]

Severe geomagnetic storm conditions are under way with a Kp = 8
Those in nthrn USA, Canada, Alaska and Europe still in dark hours should be having an outstanding view !

I live at the edge of the red region on the map, but the forecast for the next few days is rain

 

[davenn]

I live at the edge of the red region on the map, but the forecast for the next few days is rain

that would have put the aurora right overhead ... was it cloudy for you tonite ?

grrrr,

 

[UsableThought]

. At it peak, 4 - 5 hrs ago (post#8)
it would have been well visible and probably with easy colour

Thanks for the info! A page at SpaceWeatherLive.com explains "high" vs. "medium" altitude; the graphic from that page makes it seem like we might squeeze into "medium"; so might get lucky now & then:

Beyond that it seems like timing is everything. Is there a single best page or pages for the latest forecast? Presently I get up pretty early in the morning so it would be easy to check; but there are MANY forecast pages and at the moment I find it hard to sort them out.

 

[DrClaude]

that would have put the aurora right overhead ... was it cloudy for you tonite ?

grrrr,

The rain started yesterday evening...

 

[davenn]

Thanks. A page at SpaceWeatherLive.com explains "high" vs. "medium" altitude; the graphic from that page makes it seem like we might squeeze into "medium".

here's a list of areas in USA that it was visible ...

The storm was still going strong as night fell over North America. For a while, Northern Lights spilled across the Canadian border into the USA as far south as Arkansas--in addition to Maine, Connecticut, New York, Kentucky, Indiana, Missouri, Delaware, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, North and South Dakota, and other states. Photographer Chris Cook sends this picture from the Atlantic coast of Massachusetts:

The rain started yesterday evening...

that is so frustrating

 

[UsableThought]

The storm was still going strong as night fell over North America. For a while, Northern Lights spilled across the Canadian border into the USA as far south as Arkansas

Very cool.

To answer my own question about "best place to look for forecast," I realized after asking it that of course small developers for iPad, iPhone, etc. would have a slew of aurora forecast apps; and indeed this is the case. A couple of them actually seem useful.

Tonight (night of Sept. 8) it looks like there may be chances again shortly after dark; though perhaps not as strong. The forecast is for "mostly clear" by then.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Currently, according to SpaceWeatherLive.com:

"Current data suggest that there is a decent possibility that aurora can be seen now at middle latitudes"

 

[UsableThought]

Current data suggest that there is a decent possibility that aurora can be seen now at middle latitudes

Raining . . .

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Raining . . .

the chance has past now anyway, for now (at least for middle lattitudes + AR2673 will be rotating out of view very soon). Here is a nice informative review article:
https://www.space.com/38098-solar-flares-cmes-sunspot-ar2673.html?utm_source=notification

 

[UsableThought]

the chance has past now anyway, for now (at least for middle lattitudes + AR2673 will be rotating out of view very soon). Here is a nice informative review article:
https://www.space.com/38098-solar-flares-cmes-sunspot-ar2673.html?utm_source=notification

Thanks, that's a good article.

So I guess we are now heading towards a solar minimum; thus not very likely we'll see a lot of aurora activity for many years, unless there are surprises? I found an article about trends in flare activity, headlined "The Weakest Solar Cycle in 100 Years": https://www.vencoreweather.com/blog...entury-now-heading-towards-next-solar-minimum

Also, as part of self-education for sky watching & stargazing on an extremely modest scale, I got an interesting used textbook, published in 1996 by U. of Cambridge, The Ever-Changing Sky, by James Kaler; it was written to be an accessible, relatively non-mathematical text, and is apparently still used today in some college-level astronomy classes. Kaler has this to say about solar cycles & resulting auroras:

. . . aurorae are generally seen at middle latitudes, where most of us live, only near peak sunspot activity within the 11-year cycle. The cycle itself is highly variable: one maximum can be great, with a huge number of spots and flares, the next may be drab and relatively uninteresting. The reason for the variation is unknown. Intense activity, with wonderful displays, was seen in the late 1940s and especially in the 1959-60 solar peak. For a period of a few months the northern lights could be seen in the populated regions of southern Canada and the northern United States nearly every night. The early 1970 maximum was greatly reduced; however; 1990 was better, and some lovely displays were seen during the 1991-1992 maximum.​

 

[Stavros Kiri]

So I guess we are now heading towards a solar minimum ...
...

Thanks also for the sources.
This recent activity was/is perhaps a last break out before final down hill ...

Edit update note:
On editing this, just a few minutes ago, another strong M3.79 flare from sunspot region 2673. So hopes for more aurora in a couple of days (max 3) !

 

[davenn]

Thanks also for the sources.
This recent activity was/is perhaps a last break out before final down hill ...

Edit update note:
On editing this, just a few minutes ago, another strong M3.79 flare from sunspot region 2673. So hopes for more aurora in a couple of days (max 3) !

not likely ... see my comment in your thread

 

[Stavros Kiri]

New hopes for aurora tomorrow (Tue 12 Sept) or by Wed. See:
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/aurora-alert-for-6th-and-7th-sept.924608/#post-5839107

+ here is an aurora photo (taken from spaceweather.com) from the aurora activity caused by the monster X9.3 flare last week

(photo by Jani Ylinampa of Rovaniemi, Finland)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

(From spaceweather.com)

"CME ARRIVES, SPARKS MINOR STORM:Arriving earlier than expected, the flank of a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 12th (~20:00 UT), and the impact has sparked a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. Shortly after the CME's arrival, Natalia Robba photographed an outburst of auroras over Kalfafell, Iceland:

"We were on the lookout for the CME," says Robba. "We got some lovely coronas directly overhead, and lots of activity all over the sky. It didn't hold for long but it was just beautiful!"

NOAA forecasters say the storm could intensify to G2-class on Sept. 13th when a solar wind stream unrelated to the CME arrives. If so, auroras in the USA could appear as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state."

 

[davenn]

So I guess we are now heading towards a solar minimum; thus not very likely we'll see a lot of aurora activity for many years, unless there are surprises?

No, there will still be lots of aurora to view. only a small number of aurora and usually the larger ones are spawned by solar flares
some 95% or more are caused by material spewed out by coronal holes. These are occurring on a regular basis and many coronal holes last more than one solar rotation meaning that we can see regular activity month after month of rotations.Dave

 

[davenn]

Heads up for minor auroral activity 15 - 16th Sept

A recurrent coronal hole is causing unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions
This will produce some auroral activity in the higher latitudes. And now that the moon is out of the evening sky
seeing the fainter aurora will be less of an issueDave

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Space Weather News for Sept. 14, 2017
http://spaceweather.com
https://www.facebook.com/spaceweatherdotcom

"SOLAR WIND SPARKS GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Earth is entering a stream of high-speed solar wind flowing from a hole in the sun's atmosphere. First contact with the stream on Sept. 14th produced a moderately strong (G2-class) geomagnetic storm, ongoing at the time of this alert. If the storm continues, high-latitude sky watchers could see auroras after local nightfall on Sept. 14/15. Visit Spaceweather.com for more information and updates."

 

[davenn]

A large coronal hole has now become geo-effective
Those of your in high latitude locations, expect probable strong auroral activity in around 3 days time ... 27 - 30th of Sept

@DrClaudecheers
Dave

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Two aurora spectacular videos from the ISS (past events):

 

[UsableThought]

A middle latitude follow-up on @davenn's post #28 about the high latitudes . . .

Not exactly promising, but SpaceWeatherLive.com's forecast as of this afternoon seems to indicate there's a very slim chance that some few at middle latitudes (I'm at 42 degrees N) could see auroras early Thursday night - Kp index of 6, with K index of 5 for middle latitudes. (They say on their explainer page about latitudes that "middle latitudes need a Kp-index from about 4 to 7 depending on where you are.")

Unfortunately that's probably not enough of an index, plus the weather forecast where I am is for partly cloudy, which if my luck holds will mean totally cloudy in the north; also the trees over at the north of the big field where I go are no doubt hastily growing even taller, just so they can block the horizon a bit more than they already do.