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Stargazing For those aurora chasers -- a heads up

  1. Sep 9, 2017 #21
    Thanks also for the sources.
    This recent activity was/is perhaps a last break out before final down hill ...

    Edit update note:
    On editing this, just a few minutes ago, another strong M3.79 flare from sunspot region 2673. So hopes for more aurora in a couple of days (max 3) !
     
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2017
  2. Sep 10, 2017 #22

    davenn

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    not likely .... see my comment in your thread :wink:
     
  3. Sep 11, 2017 #23
  4. Sep 12, 2017 #24
    (From spaceweather.com)

    "CME ARRIVES, SPARKS MINOR STORM:Arriving earlier than expected, the flank of a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 12th (~20:00 UT), and the impact has sparked a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. Shortly after the CME's arrival, Natalia Robba photographed an outburst of auroras over Kalfafell, Iceland:

    iceland_strip.jpg

    "We were on the lookout for the CME," says Robba. "We got some lovely coronas directly overhead, and lots of activity all over the sky. It didn't hold for long but it was just beautiful!"

    NOAA forecasters say the storm could intensify to G2-class on Sept. 13th when a solar wind stream unrelated to the CME arrives. If so, auroras in the USA could appear as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state."
     
  5. Sep 14, 2017 #25

    davenn

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    No, there will still be lots of aurora to view. only a small number of aurora and usually the larger ones are spawned by solar flares
    some 95% or more are caused by material spewed out by coronal holes. These are occurring on a regular basis and many coronal holes last more than one solar rotation meaning that we can see regular activity month after month of rotations.


    Dave
     
  6. Sep 14, 2017 #26

    davenn

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    Heads up for minor auroral activity 15 - 16th Sept

    A recurrent coronal hole is causing unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions
    This will produce some auroral activity in the higher latitudes. And now that the moon is out of the evening sky
    seeing the fainter aurora will be less of an issue


    Dave
     
  7. Sep 14, 2017 #27
    Space Weather News for Sept. 14, 2017
    http://spaceweather.com
    https://www.facebook.com/spaceweatherdotcom

    "SOLAR WIND SPARKS GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Earth is entering a stream of high-speed solar wind flowing from a hole in the sun's atmosphere. First contact with the stream on Sept. 14th produced a moderately strong (G2-class) geomagnetic storm, ongoing at the time of this alert. If the storm continues, high-latitude sky watchers could see auroras after local nightfall on Sept. 14/15. Visit Spaceweather.com for more information and updates."
     
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2017
  8. Sep 24, 2017 #28

    davenn

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    A large coronal hole has now become geo-effective
    Those of your in high latitude locations, expect probable strong auroral activity in around 3 days time .... 27 - 30th of Sept

    170924 current coronal holes.JPG

    @DrClaude


    cheers
    Dave
     
  9. Sep 25, 2017 #29
    Two aurora spectacular videos from the ISS (past events):

     
  10. Sep 26, 2017 #30
    A middle latitude follow-up on @davenn's post #28 about the high latitudes . . .

    Not exactly promising, but SpaceWeatherLive.com's forecast as of this afternoon seems to indicate there's a very slim chance that some few at middle latitudes (I'm at 42 degrees N) could see auroras early Thursday night - Kp index of 6, with K index of 5 for middle latitudes. (They say on their explainer page about latitudes that "middle latitudes need a Kp-index from about 4 to 7 depending on where you are.")

    Unfortunately that's probably not enough of an index, plus the weather forecast where I am is for partly cloudy, which if my luck holds will mean totally cloudy in the north; also the trees over at the north of the big field where I go are no doubt hastily growing even taller, just so they can block the horizon a bit more than they already do.

    chart.jpeg
     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2017
  11. Sep 27, 2017 #31

    DrClaude

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    @UsableThought: What is the time zone?

    Still crappy weather here...
     
  12. Sep 27, 2017 #32
    The chart is UTC. And the forecast seems to still be the same - 00h to 03h UTC on 9/28 as the best shot.

    And I'm glad you asked, because I had forgotten to adjust for my own local time zone. Unless my bath is mad - I mean, my math is bad - the UTC forecast translates to 8 p.m. to 11 p.m. on 9/27 where I am in New York.
     
  13. Sep 28, 2017 #33

    davenn

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    A strong geomagnetic storm is under way with a planetary K index of 7
    current_conditions.jpg
    [​IMG]
    Solar wind
    speed: 665.7 km/sec
    density: 10.2 protons/cm3
    more data: ACE, DSCOVR
    Updated: Today at 0832 UT





    aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.jpg

    aurora-forecast-southern-hemisphere.jpg
     
  14. Oct 6, 2017 #34

    davenn

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    Keep an eye on the far northern or far southern skies if you live in higher latitudes
    There is a reasonable chance of auroral activity or the 7th and 8th due to the Earth
    entering a higher speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole


    cheers
    Dave
     
  15. Oct 10, 2017 #35

    davenn

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    New Aurora alert ...

    SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 17/49
    ISSUED AT 0232UT/10 OCTOBER 2017
    BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

    A recurrent positive polarity Northern hemisphere coronal hole will soon reach geoeffective location on the solar disk. A possible
    co-rotating interaction region associated with the coronal hole is expected to effect earth from late UT day 10 October. On the
    subsequent two days (11-12 October) very high solar wind streams are expected to emanate from the coronal hole. Active to Minor
    Storm conditions may occur provided IMF Bz turned strongly southward for a prolonged period.

    INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
    DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
    FROM 11-12 OCTOBER 2017
    _____________________________________________________________

    GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
    11 Oct: Active to Minor Storm
    12 Oct: Active to Minor Storm

    this is the coronal hole being referred to ......

    upload_2017-10-10_21-21-19.png


    Dave
     
  16. Oct 16, 2017 #36

    davenn

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    Heads up for those in high latitudes .....
    @DrClaude
    Anyone else that reads these reports and would like me to include an alert to them, please comment so that I can add your nickname.

    As the earth comes out of a stronger, 5 day, stream of solar wind from a coronal hole, there is yet 2 more coronal holes that have become geo-effective.
    The high speed solar wind from these is likely to impact the Earths magnetic field around the 18 and 19th of Oct causing more geomagnetic storming and auroral activity.

    171017 coronal hole locations.JPG


    cheers
    Dave
     
  17. Oct 18, 2017 #37

    DrClaude

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    Fall is really the worst time for this. Hopefully, the forecast for the next few night is clear skies. I'll try to keep my gaze upwards.
     
  18. Oct 18, 2017 #38

    davenn

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    spring and fall are the best times for aurora ... the few weeks either side of the equinox
    It has been shown year after year that the Earth's magnetic field is more susceptible to even just small bursts of solar wind
     
  19. Oct 18, 2017 #39

    DrClaude

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    I was talking about the weather. It is a shame if auroras happen most often when clouds block my view :frown:
     
  20. Oct 18, 2017 #40

    davenn

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    yes, it seems to have been poor weather for some time for you now,
    You have commented a number of times lately that it's been cloudy.
    what is the most stable weather time of the year for you ?
     
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