For those aurora chasers -- a heads up

[DrClaude]

@UsableThought: What is the time zone?

Still crappy weather here...

 

[UsableThought]

@UsableThought: What is the time zone?

The chart is UTC. And the forecast seems to still be the same - 00h to 03h UTC on 9/28 as the best shot.

And I'm glad you asked, because I had forgotten to adjust for my own local time zone. Unless my bath is mad - I mean, my math is bad - the UTC forecast translates to 8 p.m. to 11 p.m. on 9/27 where I am in New York.

 

[davenn]

A strong geomagnetic storm is under way with a planetary K index of 7

Solar wind
speed: 665.7 km/sec
density: 10.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0832 UT

 

[davenn]

Keep an eye on the far northern or far southern skies if you live in higher latitudes
There is a reasonable chance of auroral activity or the 7th and 8th due to the Earth
entering a higher speed solar wind stream from a coronal holecheers
Dave

 

[davenn]

New Aurora alert ...

SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 17/49
ISSUED AT 0232UT/10 OCTOBER 2017
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

A recurrent positive polarity Northern hemisphere coronal hole will soon reach geoeffective location on the solar disk. A possible
co-rotating interaction region associated with the coronal hole is expected to effect Earth from late UT day 10 October. On the
subsequent two days (11-12 October) very high solar wind streams are expected to emanate from the coronal hole. Active to Minor
Storm conditions may occur provided IMF Bz turned strongly southward for a prolonged period.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FROM 11-12 OCTOBER 2017
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
11 Oct: Active to Minor Storm
12 Oct: Active to Minor Storm

this is the coronal hole being referred to ...

Dave

 

[davenn]

Heads up for those in high latitudes ...
@DrClaude
Anyone else that reads these reports and would like me to include an alert to them, please comment so that I can add your nickname.

As the Earth comes out of a stronger, 5 day, stream of solar wind from a coronal hole, there is yet 2 more coronal holes that have become geo-effective.
The high speed solar wind from these is likely to impact the Earths magnetic field around the 18 and 19th of Oct causing more geomagnetic storming and auroral activity.

cheers
Dave

 

[DrClaude]

Heads up for those in high latitudes ...
@DrClaude

Fall is really the worst time for this. Hopefully, the forecast for the next few night is clear skies. I'll try to keep my gaze upwards.

 

[davenn]

Fall is really the worst time for this. Hopefully, the forecast for the next few night is clear skies. I'll try to keep my gaze upwards.

spring and fall are the best times for aurora ... the few weeks either side of the equinox
It has been shown year after year that the Earth's magnetic field is more susceptible to even just small bursts of solar wind

 

[DrClaude]

spring and fall are the best times for aurora ... the few weeks either side of the equinox
It has been shown year after year that the Earth's magnetic field is more susceptible to even just small bursts of solar wind

I was talking about the weather. It is a shame if auroras happen most often when clouds block my view

 

[davenn]

I was talking about the weather.

yes, it seems to have been poor weather for some time for you now,
You have commented a number of times lately that it's been cloudy.
what is the most stable weather time of the year for you ?

 

[davenn]

well sadly the geo storming and aurora didn't eventuate

But there are 2 other coronal holes that may cause some activity over the net 2 to 6 days respectively

 

[davenn]

a chance for more activity

from Spaceweather.com

CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION: NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Oct. 21st when a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. CIRs are transition zones between fast- and slow-moving solar wind streams. Solar wind plasma piles up in these regions, producing density gradients and shock waves that do a good job of sparking auroras.

keep an eye on the skies Dave

 

[davenn]

And yet some more probable activity in several days
with a reasonably large coronal hole now in a geo-effective position

Dave

 

[|Glitch|]

The aurora for the last couple of nights has been present, but relatively weak. I live at latitude 61.5°N, so I get a pretty good view on clear nights.

Source: The Aurora Chasers, Alaska Aurora Cam.com

 

[davenn]

heads up for the high latitude dwellers

there's a reasonable sized coronal hole that is now geo-effective
It's effects should be felt in around 2 - 3 day (~ 1 - 2 of Nov)

Dave

 

[DrClaude]

Finally got to see some northern lights yesterday evening! I'll try to post a picture later.

 

[DrClaude]

Not the best picture ever, but proof of what I saw...

 

[davenn]

Not the best picture ever, but proof of what I saw..

awesome, better than nothing, well done
continue to keep a look out over the next couple of days. The coronal hole responsible for the current burst of activity
is an elongated one and so should provide extended period of auroral activity

as far as your camera settings go ( not knowing what they were) ... some considerations

open aperture as wide as possible for the lens you are using ... eg f2.8, 3.5 not way up the other end f10, 13 etc
up the ISO setting try around 800 to 1600
and finally an exposure of around 10 seconds

those settings should get more light captured Dave

 

[davenn]

latest released geomagnetic alert

SUBJ: SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 17/55
ISSUED AT 2313UT/08 NOVEMBER 2017
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

The Earth is currently under the influence of high speed solar
wind streams associated with the recurrent coronal hole. On the
subsequent two days (9-10 November) Active to Major Storm conditions
may occur provided IMF Bz will turn southward for a prolonged
period.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FROM 09-10 NOVEMBER 2017
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
09 Nov: Storm Levels
10 Nov: Active

that's Nov 9 and 10 UT dates
and my usual comment
"tho released by the AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.
it is applicable for both northern and southern hemispheres"
Dave

 

[DrClaude]

as far as your camera settings go ( not knowing what they were) ... some considerations

The problem is that my main camera wouldn't turn on (hope it was just an empty battery), so I had to use a point-and-shoot instead. Also, I took pictures from my backyard, not the best view (hence the trees in the picture) and had to find a spot of sky where I would not catch any artificial light.

 

[davenn]

2017-11-12 and the is exiting a solar wind stream that caused a number of nights of aurora for high latitude observers on both nthrn and sthrn hemispheres.
But the respite will be brief and 2 new coronal holes are going to cause another number of days of activity. This is likely to start around the 14th of Nov.

 

[davenn]

The 2 coronal hole regions shown above didn't produce any significantly large auroral displays.

In another 24 hours another, this time centrally located coronal hole may have a better chance in producing some
higher speed solar wind and resulting in better auroral displays ... we live in hope

that burst of faster solar wind should arrive around the 18 - 19th Nov. ... stay tuned
Dave

 

[davenn]

Aurora alert for those in high latitudes, 45 or greater deg N or S

My usual comment ... tho this is from a Southern Hemisphere warning centre, it is applicable to both nthrn and sthrn hemispheres

SWS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 17/61
ISSUED AT 2258UT/15 DECEMBER 2017
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

A high speed stream from a recurrent positive equatorial coronal
hole is expected to start affecting Earth from UT day 17 Dec.
The geomagnetic activity is expected reach active levels on UT
day 17 and 18 December and at times may reach up to minor storm
levels. There is some possibility that aurora may be visible
on the local night of 17 December from Tasmania and southern
parts of Victoria, Australia.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FROM 17-18 DECEMBER 2017
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
17 Dec: Active
18 Dec: Unsettled

Space Weather Services email: asfc@bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060