Friday the 13th, 2029? The odds of impact

[Ivan Seeking]

In the Astronomy Events thread, Check is citing odds that are even worse now!

Asteroid With Chance of Hitting Earth in 2029 Now Being Watched 'Very Carefully'
By Robert Roy Britt
Senior Science Writer
posted: 24 December 2004
09:58 am ET

Original story below

Update, Dec. 25, 9:47 p.m. ET: The risk of an impact by asteroid 2004 MN4 went up slightly on Saturday, Dec. 25. It is now pegged at having a 1-in -45 chance of striking the planet on April 13, 2029. That's up from 1-in-63 late on Dec. 24, and 1-in-300 early on Dec. 24. [continued]

http://space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_risk_041224.html

Those odds are getting a little close for my taste.

 

[check]

LoL. I was wondering if anyone was reading that. I tell you that astro events thread gets next to no traffic. LoL

Well, again, the odds of impact have gone from:

1 in 300 --> 1 in 63 --> 1 in 45 --> now 1 in 37.

Yellow alert!

 

[Integral]

Man oh man... things are starting to look bad for my 80th birthday!

 

[Andromeda321]

And even as it stands with present knowledge, the chances are 97.8 percent the rock will miss Earth.

I mean that makes me feel a little better but still... I kinda like having greater assurances that I'll live to see my 44th birthday... like back to zero on the Torino scale would be nice.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

That was before Check's update... Your chances of death by asteroid have improved a little.

Note that even if this should hit, this would not constitute an extinction level, or even a global event in terms of energy. It would be bigger than Tunguska. That event leveled trees for about 10 miles in all directions.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event
http://www.psi.edu/projects/siberia/siberia.html

Imagine if this hit a major city.

 

[check]

UPDATE:

Impact RULED OUT!

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news148.html
Picture showing how close it will get:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/images/2004mn4can.gif

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Oh well, it was fun while it lasted.

 

[Chronos]

Still a chance the prostate will get you before you make 80.

 

[timken]

Armagedon

Hey, don't give up panicking just yet.

There are still several million objects in the asteroid belt in the 50-100 feet diameter range, and how many countless billions of comets are there waiting to fall on your heads from the Oort cloud.

I have read references to perturbed objects being ejected from the solar system, so presumably all of the other solar systems out there are doing the same thing. Has anyboby quantified the risk from one off, extra solar objects.

This is bad. I think whenever I go out from now on my eyes will be fixed firmly on the heavens, so there is a good chance I'll be walking into lots of trees.

 

[Andromeda321]

Woohoo, one less rock to worry about!
And timken, I think compared to a rock from our solar system (comet, asteroid, whatever) the threat of an extrasolar rock is pretty minimal. Think of it this way: the fact that a rock would be ejected from a solar system to careen off for lightyears to eventually go where a solar system is requires a great amount of precision! (Don't forget: most of space is very empty.) The threat from something in our solar system impacting with us is MUCH greater.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I find it ironic that for centuries [millennia?], comets were thought to be bringers of doom. Then, we became enlightened and we knew better. Now we don't. I have wondered if this ancient fear of comets was somehow based on human experience, or if this was simply fear of the unknown.

 

[Integral]

Still a chance the prostate will get you before you make 80.

OR a Bus, OR a bolt of lighting or any of a dozen other life limiting factors.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Getting in a car and driving is one of life's greatest riskiest activities.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Big Macs are more dangerous than rogue asteroids.

 

[BoulderHead]

I'm glad I won't be around should this one strike !

 

[Integral]

Getting in a car and driving is one of life's greatest riskiest activities.

I recall, back near the end of the cold war, some parents being concerned because. they claimed, their children were being traumatized by the ever present danger of a nuclear war.

I always wondered how these same parents loaded their children into a car and drove to the neighborhood store.

 

[russ_watters]

I recall, back near the end of the cold war, some parents being concerned because. they claimed, their children were being traumatized by the ever present danger of a nuclear war.

I always wondered how these same parents loaded their children into a car and drove to the neighborhood store.

An aunt and uncle of mine (now divorced) used to drive to the airport together, then get on separate planes to mitigate the probability of both being killed in a plane crash.

I have wondered if this ancient fear of comets was somehow based on human experience, or if this was simply fear of the unknown.

I still vote fear of the unknown.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I still vote fear of the unknown.

I don't vote.

 

[alpha_wolf]

According to that diagram, it should approach to within something like 30000-85000 km. Geostationary oribit is like, what, about 40000 km? I think we could land on it quite easily.. Anyone knows if there's anything interesting on it?

EDIT: closest one so far was at about 43000 km, on 18/03/2004. It was only 30 meters across (article).

 

[Qyamat]

Oh, you guys don't have to worry. Just tell the asteroid i am around.It will spare.

 

[Garth]

According to that diagram, it should approach to within something like 30000-85000 km. Geostationary oribit is like, what, about 40000 km? I think we could land on it quite easily.

No chance! Delta-vee too large!

Garth

 

[Astronuc]

For anyone who is interested, there is an orbit diagram ( Java Applet) at
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db_shm?sstr=2004MN4&group=all

 

[DrKareem]

geostationary orbit is 36,000 km

 

[pikapika!]

Big Macs are more dangerous than rogue asteroids.

yeah, but big macs taste better.

 

[josh6541]

Is that one really possible?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

So far, its the truth for a sustained diet of Big Macs, I would think.

Why, are you worried?

 

[Ivan Seeking]

One Big Mac hitting the Earth wouldn't be that bad.

 

[alpha_wolf]

No chance! Delta-vee too large!

Yeah, but the point is that we don't need to travel far to reach it, compared to the distances we cover more or less routinely. But it's true that we will need to match the velocities to land..

Although, it may be possible to do this:
1. Adjust the probes orbit around Earth such that the probe and asteroid pass very close to each other at some point.
2. At just the right moment, deploy a grappling hook/net/whatever from the probe.
3. Let the asteroid do the acceleartion work.

 

[Garth]

In space-flight the important factor in getting there is delta vee, distance just determines how long you have to wait to get there.

A grappling hook won't work at interplanetary relative velocities, however on second thoughts it might be possible to match velocities by doing a sling-shot around the moon. Any orbital number crunchers out there?

Garth

 

[alpha_wolf]

In space-flight the important factor in getting there is delta vee, distance just determines how long you have to wait to get there.

Yes, but if one object (the probe) is in orbit, and the other (the asteroid) is just passing by, then positioning gets more important, because their paths do not converge..

A grappling hook won't work at interplanetary relative velocities

Why not? Is it a material properties issue or something more fundamental?

And btw, how fast will it be passing by, anyway (e.g. at the closest point)?
Also, I again ask - what is this asteroid made of? Perhaps it's not even worth this discussion...