Friday the 13th, 2029? The odds of impact

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the potential impact of asteroid 2004 MN4 on Earth, specifically focusing on the evolving odds of impact and the implications of such an event. Participants explore various aspects of asteroid risks, including historical context, comparisons to other dangers, and theoretical approaches to asteroid interception.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants note that the odds of impact have fluctuated, with estimates changing from 1 in 300 to 1 in 45, and then to 1 in 37.
  • Others express concern about the implications of an asteroid impact, referencing the Tunguska event as a point of comparison for potential damage.
  • A participant mentions that current estimates suggest a 97.8 percent chance that the asteroid will miss Earth, which provides some reassurance.
  • There is a discussion about the risks posed by other celestial objects, including extrasolar objects, with some arguing that the threat from solar system objects is greater.
  • Several participants reflect on the historical perception of comets and asteroids as omens of doom, questioning whether this fear is rooted in human experience or simply fear of the unknown.
  • Technical discussions arise regarding the feasibility of landing on or intercepting the asteroid, with varying opinions on the challenges involved, such as delta-v requirements and velocity matching.
  • Some participants humorously compare the risks of asteroid impacts to everyday dangers, such as driving or consuming fast food.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a mix of concern and humor regarding the asteroid threat, with no clear consensus on the overall risk or the best approach to mitigate it. There are competing views on the significance of the asteroid's potential impact and the feasibility of interception.

Contextual Notes

Participants reference various estimates and updates regarding the asteroid's trajectory and risk, indicating that the situation is dynamic and subject to change. There are unresolved questions about the asteroid's composition and the specific risks posed by other celestial objects.

Who May Find This Useful

This discussion may be of interest to those studying astronomy, planetary defense, or risk assessment related to celestial impacts, as well as individuals curious about the historical and cultural perceptions of asteroids and comets.

Ivan Seeking
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In the Astronomy Events thread, Check is citing odds that are even worse now!

Asteroid With Chance of Hitting Earth in 2029 Now Being Watched 'Very Carefully'
By Robert Roy Britt
Senior Science Writer
posted: 24 December 2004
09:58 am ET

Original story below

Update, Dec. 25, 9:47 p.m. ET: The risk of an impact by asteroid 2004 MN4 went up slightly on Saturday, Dec. 25. It is now pegged at having a 1-in -45 chance of striking the planet on April 13, 2029. That's up from 1-in-63 late on Dec. 24, and 1-in-300 early on Dec. 24. [continued]
http://space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_risk_041224.html

Those odds are getting a little close for my taste.
 
Astronomy news on Phys.org
LoL. I was wondering if anyone was reading that. I tell you that astro events thread gets next to no traffic. LoL

Well, again, the odds of impact have gone from:

1 in 300 --> 1 in 63 --> 1 in 45 --> now 1 in 37.

Yellow alert!
 
Man oh man... things are starting to look bad for my 80th birthday!
 
And even as it stands with present knowledge, the chances are 97.8 percent the rock will miss Earth.

I mean that makes me feel a little better but still... I kinda like having greater assurances that I'll live to see my 44th birthday... like back to zero on the Torino scale would be nice. :bugeye:
 
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Oh well, it was fun while it lasted. :biggrin:
 
Still a chance the prostate will get you before you make 80.
 
Armagedon

Hey, don't give up panicking just yet.

There are still several million objects in the asteroid belt in the 50-100 feet diameter range, and how many countless billions of comets are there waiting to fall on your heads from the Oort cloud.

I have read references to perturbed objects being ejected from the solar system, so presumably all of the other solar systems out there are doing the same thing. Has anyboby quantified the risk from one off, extra solar objects.

This is bad. I think whenever I go out from now on my eyes will be fixed firmly on the heavens, so there is a good chance I'll be walking into lots of trees.
 
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  • #10
Woohoo, one less rock to worry about! :biggrin:
And timken, I think compared to a rock from our solar system (comet, asteroid, whatever) the threat of an extrasolar rock is pretty minimal. Think of it this way: the fact that a rock would be ejected from a solar system to careen off for lightyears to eventually go where a solar system is requires a great amount of precision! (Don't forget: most of space is very empty.) The threat from something in our solar system impacting with us is MUCH greater.
 
  • #11
I find it ironic that for centuries [millennia?], comets were thought to be bringers of doom. Then, we became enlightened and we knew better. Now we don't. I have wondered if this ancient fear of comets was somehow based on human experience, or if this was simply fear of the unknown.
 
  • #12
Chronos said:
Still a chance the prostate will get you before you make 80.
OR a Bus, OR a bolt of lighting or any of a dozen other life limiting factors.
 
  • #13
Getting in a car and driving is one of life's greatest riskiest activities.
 
  • #14
Big Macs are more dangerous than rogue asteroids. :biggrin:
 
  • #15
I'm glad I won't be around should this one strike !
 
  • #16
Ivan Seeking said:
Getting in a car and driving is one of life's greatest riskiest activities.

I recall, back near the end of the cold war, some parents being concerned because. they claimed, their children were being traumatized by the ever present danger of a nuclear war.

I always wondered how these same parents loaded their children into a car and drove to the neighborhood store.
 
  • #17
Integral said:
I recall, back near the end of the cold war, some parents being concerned because. they claimed, their children were being traumatized by the ever present danger of a nuclear war.

I always wondered how these same parents loaded their children into a car and drove to the neighborhood store.
An aunt and uncle of mine (now divorced) used to drive to the airport together, then get on separate planes to mitigate the probability of both being killed in a plane crash. :rolleyes:
Ivan Seeking said:
I have wondered if this ancient fear of comets was somehow based on human experience, or if this was simply fear of the unknown.
I still vote fear of the unknown.
 
  • #18
russ_watters said:
I still vote fear of the unknown.

I don't vote. :biggrin:
 
  • #19
According to that diagram, it should approach to within something like 30000-85000 km. Geostationary oribit is like, what, about 40000 km? I think we could land on it quite easily.. Anyone knows if there's anything interesting on it?

EDIT: closest one so far was at about 43000 km, on 18/03/2004. It was only 30 meters across (article).
 
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  • #20
Oh, you guys don't have to worry. Just tell the asteroid i am around.It will spare.
 
  • #21
alpha_wolf said:
According to that diagram, it should approach to within something like 30000-85000 km. Geostationary oribit is like, what, about 40000 km? I think we could land on it quite easily.
No chance! Delta-vee too large!

Garth
 
  • #22
For anyone who is interested, there is an orbit diagram ( Java Applet) at
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db_shm?sstr=2004MN4&group=all
 
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  • #23
geostationary orbit is 36,000 km
 
  • #24
Ivan Seeking said:
Big Macs are more dangerous than rogue asteroids. :biggrin:
yeah, but big macs taste better.
 
  • #25
Is that one really possible?
 
  • #26
So far, its the truth for a sustained diet of Big Macs, I would think.

Why, are you worried? :biggrin:
 
  • #27
One Big Mac hitting the Earth wouldn't be that bad. :smile: :smile: :smile:
 
  • #28
Garth said:
No chance! Delta-vee too large!
Yeah, but the point is that we don't need to travel far to reach it, compared to the distances we cover more or less routinely. But it's true that we will need to match the velocities to land..

Although, it may be possible to do this:
1. Adjust the probes orbit around Earth such that the probe and asteroid pass very close to each other at some point.
2. At just the right moment, deploy a grappling hook/net/whatever from the probe.
3. Let the asteroid do the acceleartion work.
 
  • #29
In space-flight the important factor in getting there is delta vee, distance just determines how long you have to wait to get there.

A grappling hook won't work at interplanetary relative velocities, however on second thoughts it might be possible to match velocities by doing a sling-shot around the moon. Any orbital number crunchers out there?

Garth
 
  • #30
Garth said:
In space-flight the important factor in getting there is delta vee, distance just determines how long you have to wait to get there.
Yes, but if one object (the probe) is in orbit, and the other (the asteroid) is just passing by, then positioning gets more important, because their paths do not converge..
A grappling hook won't work at interplanetary relative velocities
Why not? Is it a material properties issue or something more fundamental?

And btw, how fast will it be passing by, anyway (e.g. at the closest point)?
Also, I again ask - what is this asteroid made of? Perhaps it's not even worth this discussion...
 

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