Friday the 13th, 2029? The odds of impact

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on the increasing odds of asteroid 2004 MN4 impacting Earth on April 13, 2029, which have escalated from 1-in-300 to 1-in-37. Despite this heightened risk, the probability of a miss remains at 97.8%. The asteroid is noted to be larger than the Tunguska event, which caused significant destruction in 1908. Participants express a mix of humor and concern regarding the potential impact and the broader risks posed by other celestial objects.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of asteroid classification and tracking, specifically Near-Earth Objects (NEOs).
  • Familiarity with orbital mechanics, including concepts like perihelion and aphelion.
  • Knowledge of impact events and their historical significance, such as the Tunguska event.
  • Awareness of current asteroid monitoring tools and databases, such as NASA's NEO program.
NEXT STEPS
  • Research the latest updates on asteroid 2004 MN4 through NASA's NEO website.
  • Study the Torino Scale for assessing the impact risk of near-Earth objects.
  • Explore orbital mechanics to understand how gravitational forces affect asteroid trajectories.
  • Investigate historical asteroid impacts and their consequences on Earth.
USEFUL FOR

Astronomers, space enthusiasts, risk assessment professionals, and anyone interested in planetary defense and the implications of asteroid impacts.

  • #31
"how fast will it be passing by?" - in the region 20 -100 000 mph.

"what is this asteroid made of? " - stone or iron or a mixture of the two.

Garth
 
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  • #32
20 mph is not that much...

So in other words we need more precise info before we can truly determine even the feasibility of a landing, let alone the benefits of it.
 
  • #33
I think he meant 20 000 mph, not 20mph.

For that matter, if an asteroid is (as it appears in the link) in a similar orbit around the sun as the earth's, then it must have a very similar orbital velocity, on the order of 67,000 mph (I think).
 
  • #34
rachmaninoff said:
I think he meant 20 000 mph, not 20mph.
Of course!

Garth
 
  • #35
I wonder, Could it be possible for that Asteroid to come so close that it were to suddenly come into orbit around the Earth. Then maybe the possibility of it becoming the 2nd moon of the Earth? How large is this Asteroid?

NVM: I doubt that what I said would happen, from the looks of the moving time diagram given, the 2004 MN4 is orbiting at a pretty good velocity. The Earth's gravitational pull doesn't look strong enough to capture that asteroid. But what do I know, I don't have any numbers ot prove it.
 
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  • #36
Orbital velocity of 2004 MN4

Period of revolution about sun, P = 0.8853 y
Distance from sun at Perihelion, q = 0.7457 AU
Distance from sun at Aphelion, Q = 1.0982 AU
Inclination wrt Ecliptic, i = 3.3334 deg

So it crosses Earth's orbit twice, and the orbit of Venus twice during one of it periods. See my previous post in this thread with a link to the NASA site that shows the orbit of 2004 MN4. (Note - there is no orbital precession, so the simulator is not entirely accurate).

As it nears the Earth's orbit, the velocities are very close, probably on the order of 1 km/s (3600 km/h or 2200 mph) apart. Outside of Earth's orbit, the 2004 MN4 is traveling slightly slower, and as it nears the orbit of Venus, its speed is a little faster than Venus. But what counts is the velocity in the vicinity of the Earth. If it got near enough to the Earth, the Earth's gravity would accelerate it.

The mean Earth orbital velocity is approx. 29.786 km/s (107,229 km/h).

To capture it one would have to decrease the orbital velocity to less than escape velocity from earth, which is about 11.1 km/s (40,200 km/h, or 25,000 mph). Compare this to the moon's orbital velocity of 1.023 km/s.

If anyone wants to worry about something, take a look at all the other NEO's - http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/orbits/
 
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  • #37
I think if we get hit, it'll be by one we didn't see coming. How long has this asteroid been orbiting the sun? 1000s of years, typically crossing our orbit twice a year?
 

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