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Well, some research shows that a large portion of jobs will not exist in the future. The estimate for the proportion of jobs at risk is 47%. Pdf linked at bottom.
Clearly, unskilled jobs are the first to go. Along with any task that can be currently computed, i.e good motor skills, calculations, typing even. So repetitive tasks are out.
But will this open new jobs that are more creative in nature? Perhaps more jobs for mathematicians and physicists? What about the field of software engineering/data scientist? No matter how intelligent the AI becomes, it still cannot have a Sherlock Holmes style of deduction, which means analyzing data for scientific purposes still should be around.
Skills that I think will remain are: proving theorems, writing novels, deducing cause and effect, etc. So basically: Creativity and Pattern Recognition.
This really leads to the question? What type of jobs will remain? Just jobs that require higher abstractions? Any opinions?We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To assess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we examine expected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerisation, wages and educational attainment. According to our estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk. We further provide evidence that wages and educational attainment exhibit a strong negative relationship with an occupation’s probability of computerisation.
Clearly, unskilled jobs are the first to go. Along with any task that can be currently computed, i.e good motor skills, calculations, typing even. So repetitive tasks are out.
But will this open new jobs that are more creative in nature? Perhaps more jobs for mathematicians and physicists? What about the field of software engineering/data scientist? No matter how intelligent the AI becomes, it still cannot have a Sherlock Holmes style of deduction, which means analyzing data for scientific purposes still should be around.
Skills that I think will remain are: proving theorems, writing novels, deducing cause and effect, etc. So basically: Creativity and Pattern Recognition.
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