Geometric distribution with varying time intervals

[nicole58]

View attachment 3720

I'm struggling with question 10. I'm not sure how to account for the different time? I'm probably just overthinking it. I have attached a picture of the answer as well.View attachment 3721

Again, trying to figure out question #10

 

[Jameson]

Hi nicole58,

Welcome to MHB! :)

Ok, let's start with calculating how she would win on the first try of the year. Any idea how you would do that?

It seems for this problem the order matters, which is strange for lottery type games but given the answer that is how this game is played. So what is the chance she wins the game on her very first try?