Higgs rumors prior to CERN seminar

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around rumors regarding potential sightings of the Higgs boson prior to a seminar at CERN. Participants explore the implications of these rumors, the statistical significance of the reported findings, and the appropriateness of discussing such speculative information within the community.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Meta-discussion

Main Points Raised

  • One participant cites a press statement indicating that while significant progress has been made in the search for the Higgs boson, no conclusive statements can be made about its existence.
  • Rumors suggest that both the ATLAS and CMS experiments may have detected the Higgs boson with a mass around 125 GeV, but only at a statistical significance of 2.5 to 3.5 sigma.
  • At 2.5 sigma, there is a 1% chance that the results could be a fluke, while at 3.8 sigma, that chance decreases to 0.01%.
  • Another participant expresses skepticism about the attention given to rumors, questioning the motivations of those who engage with them.
  • A later reply challenges the notion that bloggers discussing these rumors are scientists, suggesting a distinction between professional scientists and those in the blogging community.
  • One participant reminds others of the forum rules regarding the discussion of unpublished results and rumors, indicating a concern for adherence to community guidelines.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the validity and relevance of the rumors surrounding the Higgs boson. There is no consensus on whether discussing such rumors is appropriate within the forum context.

Contextual Notes

The discussion highlights the uncertainty surrounding the statistical significance of the reported findings and the implications of discussing unpublished results. There is a lack of clarity on the reliability of the sources of these rumors.

rhody
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I did a search before posting. Posted yesterday, The Register,

Rumours of Higgs sightings precede latest results seminar
The press statement is careful to manage expectations about what will be discussed at the seminar:

These results will be based on the analysis of considerably more data than those presented at the summer conferences, sufficient to make significant progress in the search for the Higgs boson, but not enough to make any conclusive statement on the existence or non-existence of the Higgs.

But this has only seemed to fuel the rumours that the boffins have indeed had sight of the particle, just not enough to be “conclusive”.

The rumours, on the Vixra Log and Not Even Wrong blogs, are that the Higgs boson has been ‘seen’ by both ATLAS and CMS, and with a mass in the range of prediction at 125 GeV (giga-electron volts).

and
However, the two experiments are only seeing the particles at 2.5 to 3.5 sigma (the measure of statistical certainty).

At 2.5 sigma, there is a 1 per cent chance that the results are a fluke, and at 3.8 sigma, that chance drops to 0.01 per cent.

This could mean that CERN is ready to announce that they have spotted evidence of the particle, but they wouldn’t say they had ‘discovered’ it at this level of uncertainty

Form this link correct me if I am wrong, 3.5 sigma would be equal to:
22750 defects per million opportunities
and 5 sigma, 233 parts per million would be enough confidence that the Higgs had been cornered, so to speak.

Rhody...
 
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I find it very strange how some scientists pay attention to rumors. They must have too much time.
 
humanino said:
I find it very strange how some scientists pay attention to rumors. They must have too much time.

Whom do you mean? The bloggers are not scientists.
 
Please reread the PF Rules again, everyone. We do not discuss unpublished results and rumors here.
 

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