How Can We Prove the Probability Formula for a Two-State System?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around proving the probability formula for a two-state system as presented in a statistical physics context. Participants explore combinatorial reasoning and mathematical induction as methods for establishing the validity of the formula.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Homework-related

Main Points Raised

  • One participant expresses curiosity about proving the probability formula for a two-state system, specifically the expression for the number of arrangements of outcomes.
  • Another participant suggests using mathematical induction as a potential proof method.
  • A participant acknowledges familiarity with mathematical induction but struggles to apply it effectively, particularly in verifying base cases.
  • There is a suggestion to take a break and revisit the problem later, indicating the potential for fatigue affecting problem-solving.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus on the proof method, and there is ongoing uncertainty regarding the application of mathematical induction.

Contextual Notes

Participants mention challenges with verifying base cases in mathematical induction, indicating possible gaps in understanding or application of the method.

anachin6000
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I started to study statistical physics from a book, and it starts with basics about statistics and probabilities (which are things mostly new for me).
In the book there is the following statement:

"The simplest non-trivial system which we can investigate using probability theory is one for which there are only two possible outcomes. There would obviously be little point in investigating a one outcome system. Let us suppose that there are two possible outcomes to an observation made on some system S. Let us denote these outcomes 1 and 2, and let their probabilities of occurrence be
P(1) = p,
P(2) = q.
It follows immediately from the normalization condition that
p + q = 1,
so q = 1 − p.
The probability of obtaining n1 occurrences of the outcome 1 in N observations is given by
PN(n1) = CN (n1,N−n1) p^(n1) q^(N−n1), (2.16) where CN (n1,N−n1) is the number of ways of arranging two distinct sets of n1 and N − n1 indistinguishable objects."

I'm familiar with combinatorics, so I find it obvious that their CN (n1,N−n1) is Cn1 N.
But I'm very curious how this can be proved. They give an example, but not a general demonstration. I've thought about it, but I couldn't do the demonstration. Can someone help me with it.
I must mention: it is not homework, it is just for my personal knowledge.
 
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anachin6000 said:
I started to study statistical physics from a book, and it starts with basics about statistics and probabilities (which are things mostly new for me).
In the book there is the following statement:

"The simplest non-trivial system which we can investigate using probability theory is one for which there are only two possible outcomes. There would obviously be little point in investigating a one outcome system. Let us suppose that there are two possible outcomes to an observation made on some system S. Let us denote these outcomes 1 and 2, and let their probabilities of occurrence be
P(1) = p,
P(2) = q.
It follows immediately from the normalization condition that
p + q = 1,
so q = 1 − p.
The probability of obtaining n1 occurrences of the outcome 1 in N observations is given by
PN(n1) = CN (n1,N−n1) p^(n1) q^(N−n1), (2.16) where CN (n1,N−n1) is the number of ways of arranging two distinct sets of n1 and N − n1 indistinguishable objects."

I'm familiar with combinatorics, so I find it obvious that their CN (n1,N−n1) is Cn1 N.
But I'm very curious how this can be proved. They give an example, but not a general demonstration. I've thought about it, but I couldn't do the demonstration. Can someone help me with it.
I must mention: it is not homework, it is just for my personal knowledge.

You could prove it by induction. Have you come across mathematical induction?
 
PeroK said:
You could prove it by induction. Have you come across mathematical induction?

Yes, I know about mathematical induction, but I was never good at using it. After your reply, I tried to it, but with no success.
First of all I tried to verify for 0, but it didn't verify, same for 1. I might miss something because I'm very tired.
 
anachin6000 said:
Yes, I know about mathematical induction, but I was never good at using it. After your reply, I tried to it, but with no success.
First of all I tried to verify for 0, but it didn't verify, same for 1. I might miss something because I'm very tired.

If you're tired, why not take a fresh look at it tomorrow.
 

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