Borek said:
I admit I have not read through your explanation, but I suspect that if it is correct, it will work also for the baloon with rigid surface. At the scale we are talking about characteristic of the boundary is less important than its existence. That's why these pockets do exist.
I am still refining my theory, and now realize that the pocket of hot air is slightly different from a balloon after all (although the behavior looks the same macroscopically).
For the balloon, the momentum is transferred at the surface of the balloon. More pressure (collisions of surrounding air molecules with the tissue of the balloon) below than above, gives boyancy to lift the balloon. Nobody cares what happens inside the balloon (or any other lighter than air object).
In the pocket of hot air, the transfer of momentum is NOT just happening at the boundary! (I only just realized this).
The surrounding area has a pressure gradient that is just enough to keep the cold air stable. A cold air molecule will, on average, receive slightly more collisions from below than from above and this will be just enough to compensate for its weight. That doesn't mean none of them come down: some will still come down, while others will go up, in random brownian motion, but there is no net average tendency. So you won't feel any up- or downdraft.
Inside the pocket of hot air (not just at the top and bottom), the same pressure gradient exists because pressure can even out sideways with the surrounding cold air. So each hot air molecule, too, is receiving slightly more push from below than from above. But this total extra push, summed over all the molecules at a certain altitude, is divided over a smaller number of hot air molecules in the layer above that altitude as compared with the number that would be in a similar slice of cold air. This means the hot ones get more than their fair share of upward gravity-canceling momentum and therefore, on average, all the hot air molecules will tend to go up.
Unlike the rigid balloon, the effect is NOT caused at the boundary but happens everywhere inside the volume of hot air.
Of course you are free to make a statistical consideration about the total momentum being transferred to the volume of hot air from all sides, and come to the correct conclusion that the hot air must be pushed up because otherwise it doesn't add up, but I think my analysis is more detailed.
(At least that's my theory, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong)