How Does Probability Change with Each Roll of a Loaded Die?

  • Context: MHB 
  • Thread starter Thread starter Jason76
  • Start date Start date
Click For Summary
SUMMARY

The discussion focuses on calculating the probability function f(x) for a loaded die where the probability of rolling a face i is defined as P(roll is i) = K*i for i = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. The constant K is determined to be 1/21, leading to the conclusion that f(1) = 12/21, representing the probability that the first roll is even. The conversation also explores the calculation of f(2), which involves the probability of rolling an odd number first followed by an even number.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of probability theory and functions
  • Familiarity with loaded dice and their probability distributions
  • Basic knowledge of conditional probability
  • Ability to manipulate algebraic equations
NEXT STEPS
  • Calculate f(2) using the derived probabilities for odd and even rolls
  • Explore the concept of expected value in the context of loaded dice
  • Investigate Markov chains and their application to rolling dice
  • Learn about the law of total probability and its relevance to this scenario
USEFUL FOR

Mathematicians, statisticians, game designers, and anyone interested in probability theory and its applications in gaming scenarios.

Jason76
Messages
6
Reaction score
0
What would be f(x) - given the below information?

A die has its six faces loaded so that P(roll is i)=K*x for x=1,2,3,4,5,6. It is rolled until an even number appears. Let X be the number of rolls needed.

K + 2K + 3K + 4K + 5K + 6K = 1

is the correct format so

21K = 1

so

K = \dfrac{1}{21}

f(x) = \dfrac{1}{21}x ??
 
Physics news on Phys.org
Jason76 said:
What would be f(x) - given the below information?
A die has its six faces loaded so that P(roll is i)=K*x for x=1,2,3,4,5,6. It is rolled until an even number appears. Let X be the number of rolls needed.

K + 2K + 3K + 4K + 5K + 6K = 1

is the correct format so

21K = 1

so

K = \dfrac{1}{21}

f(x) = \dfrac{1}{21}x ??

Hi Jason76,

Let me take the liberty to rephrase your problem statement a bit, since I believe $i$ and $x$ are supposed to have different meanings.

A die has its six faces loaded so that P(roll is i)=K*i for i=1,2,3,4,5,6. It is rolled until an even number appears. Let X be the number of rolls needed.
Let $f(x)$ be the probability that $x$ rolls are needed until an even number appears.


Does that look right to you?

It would mean that f(1) is the probability that the very first roll is even, after which we stop.

So:
f(1) = P(1st roll is even) = P(roll is 2 or 4 or 6) = P(roll is 2) + P(roll is 4) + P(roll is 6) = 2/21 + 4/21 + 6/21 = 12/21

and:
f(2) = P(1st roll is odd and 2nd roll is even) = P(1st roll is odd) P(2nd roll is even)

What would f(2) be?
 

Similar threads

Replies
2
Views
4K
  • · Replies 10 ·
Replies
10
Views
2K
  • · Replies 6 ·
Replies
6
Views
2K
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
2K
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
6K
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
3K
  • · Replies 6 ·
Replies
6
Views
4K
  • · Replies 13 ·
Replies
13
Views
5K
  • · Replies 6 ·
Replies
6
Views
4K
  • · Replies 5 ·
Replies
5
Views
4K