How Should We Mine Asteroids: Robots or Humans?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers on the feasibility and methods of asteroid mining, exploring whether it would be more efficient to mine asteroids in their original locations in the asteroid belt or to bring them closer to Earth for extraction. The conversation touches on theoretical, technical, and practical aspects of asteroid mining, including the roles of humans and robots in the process.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants suggest that bringing an asteroid to Earth may be impractical due to the high energy and fuel costs associated with orbital transfer.
  • Others propose that mining asteroids in place could be a viable option, particularly for smaller asteroids that could be disassembled.
  • There are discussions about the potential for using launch systems to send mined materials back to Earth while modifying the asteroid's orbit over time.
  • Some participants express skepticism about the practicality of asteroid mining, citing concerns over costs, labor, and the feasibility of human involvement.
  • Others argue that robotic miners could be a more cost-effective solution, although there are doubts about the current technological capabilities for self-repairing robots or onsite production of new robots.
  • There is mention of ongoing efforts by organizations like Planetary Resources to explore asteroid mining within the participants' lifetimes, despite differing opinions on the feasibility of such projects.
  • Some participants highlight the potential economic value of asteroid materials, while others question whether the costs of mining would outweigh the benefits.
  • The idea of using a space elevator to facilitate mining operations is discussed, though it is acknowledged that this technology is still in the conceptual stage.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of views on the feasibility and methods of asteroid mining, with no clear consensus reached. While some see potential in both human and robotic approaches, others remain skeptical about the practicality and cost-effectiveness of these methods.

Contextual Notes

Participants note various assumptions about technological advancements and economic viability, with some expressing uncertainty about the costs associated with mining operations and the necessary infrastructure.

  • #31
See message #24.
 
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  • #32
DahnBoson said:
Thank you guys for posting some numbers I see now that it is not so much the technology that makes this impossible but simple economics and Vanadium how did you get the figure 6500, because I don't quite see how you did.
No. The economics are a result of the launch technology and try as we might, it has been very difficult to bring the costs down.

In addition to that, some here have suggested we build robotic spacecraft manufacturing plants in space, neither of which have been done and both would present technological challenges.
 
  • #33
Vanadium 50 said:
Let's see where we are so far:

  • Hayabusa (if it worked properly): $170B/kg
  • Luna: $68B/kg
  • Apollo: $0.33B/kg

Gold is presently the most expensive element at $50K/kg.

So essentially, we need to make space travel at least 6500 times cheaper before this even starts to be competitive. Not 10x cheaper, not 100x cheaper, not even 1000x cheaper. 6500.
None of these missions was designed to bring large quantities of materials back. If twice the amount of sample returns would have doubled the value of the missions, they would have had a better ratio.
Here is an example of http://pics.nase-bohren.de/ibm3300-vs-3microsd.jpg (more, if you include inflation. And a factor of 4 million for the weight). I do not expect the same for rockets, but as I said, the quoted numbers are misleading.

Just out of curiosity, which number do you get if you include the full life support systems for all successful Apollo missions in the mass?
 
  • #34
russ_watters said:
No. The economics are a result of the launch technology and try as we might, it has been very difficult to bring the costs down.

In addition to that, some here have suggested we build robotic spacecraft manufacturing plants in space, neither of which have been done and both would present technological challenges.
I agree bad choice of words on my part I should have said that I realize that the cost of these missions with current technology is a primary inhibitor
 
  • #35
It is pretty much a techno/medical race between robots and humans...

The mining of the asteroids (and space activities in general) depends on lots of things, but there are two things that need to be developed before any progress comes:

robots
DNA repair

The hard radiation of space is the primary problem with manned space activities. The lifetime maximum exposure is exceeded on just a one-way trip to Mars. This is why all manned missions have been restricted to low Earth orbit and quick missions to the Moon.

The kind of shielding required to be adequate for long term inter-planetary manned missions is on the order of a few meters of lead... kind of heavy for space missions. This means until the exposure problem is mitigated, robots will be used almost exclusively.

If it became possible to successfully and continuously treat and repair exposure damaged DNA and other tissue, then much of the shielding problem is solved. The Human Genome Project and similar are way ahead of schedule...

So, along with the politics, economic/finance, engineering, logistics and all the rest, the actual picture of what this will look like is going to come down to whether it is robots first, then later "hard" humans with self repairing genetic tissue; or "hard" humans first and robots following...

The implications of both are important:
-robots advanced enough to approach "human-like" operations
-humans that self repair with total fidelity
 

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