Hi guys, I'm working on a research project that looks at the amount of cosmic rays coming out of a particular region of the sky in certain time intervals. There are 13 readings taken: 9,9,6,6,7,1,6,6,1,6,4,1,0 When this is plotted, it looks like a downward trend - meaning the source could be becoming less active - but it's difficult to say with such small statistics. I though perhaps I should try to quantify the likelihood of getting such numbers if the source was essentially a constant source - ie the trend is just due to fluctuations. Could someone please suggest how I might think about doing this? Thanks in advance for any suggestions!