Human marathon limit challenged by Nike

[houlahound]

Some claim not possible naturally, ie beat 2 hours. While not possible under race conditions Nike is trying to see if it is humanly possible;

http://running.competitor.com/2016/...ram-break-2-hour-marathon-barrier-2017_160032

 

[Ygggdrasil]

Here's a neat post from a physics blog from a while ago using some mathematical modeling to predict that the fastest possible marathon time is just above 2 hrs: https://gravityandlevity.wordpress.com/2011/04/11/the-fastest-possible-marathon/

 

[newjerseyrunner]

That's 4:34 splits. I could barely run one mile at that pace in college. I was happy to get under three and a half hours and I felt like I was flying.

 

[mfb]

Here's a neat post from a physics blog from a while ago using some mathematical modeling to predict that the fastest possible marathon time is just above 2 hrs: https://gravityandlevity.wordpress.com/2011/04/11/the-fastest-possible-marathon/

An exponential fit starting at 2h+1h, used to predict something with a single-minute accuracy? That cannot work. See how the 2014 record ruined the whole analysis. I guess Bolt's 100 m record(s) ruined some similar trend lines - he ran 1% faster than anyone else.

 

[newjerseyrunner]

I don't like trendline with running events either. Often records stand for a long time then get shattered and then the old record is trampled on by everyone else. That's usually due to a breakthrough new training method.

 

[houlahound]

I think the idea is racing is invalid for actual record attempts, too many things on race day that makes data incomparable.

 

[mfb]

One more comment on the last years: the blog article Ygggdrasil linked was from April 2011. At that time, the record was 2:03:59, set in 2008. It was improved to 2:03:38 in September 2011, 2:03:23 in 2013, and finally 2:02:57 in 2014 - always at the Berlin marathon, but from 3 different runners. 6 years after the article was written, the record improved by 1 minute and 2 seconds, and 7 athletes achieved times better than the 2008 record.

Just based on the running times, there is no hard limit visible yet. In the last years not only the world record improved by 1 minute, the times of others improved by the same amount.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Olympic marathoners are just incredible. I remember watching the last few miles of the front runners and thinking my god they are running faster in these last miles than I can sprint.