Interpreting Poisson Regression Estimates across groups

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SUMMARY

This discussion focuses on interpreting Poisson regression estimates for injury rates among firefighters, police, and soldiers. The model used is defined as log(InjuryCount_{i}/T_{i}) = β_{0} + β_{1}I(f)_{i} + β_{2}I(s)_{i}, where police serve as the baseline group. The key question raised is whether exp(β_{0}) represents the estimated rate of injury for the baseline group or the estimated mean rate for that group. The consensus indicates that it can be interpreted as the estimated rate for an individual in the baseline group, while also reflecting the mean rate for the group as a whole.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of Poisson regression modeling
  • Familiarity with the concept of baseline groups in statistical analysis
  • Knowledge of indicator variables in regression
  • Basic principles of interpreting regression coefficients
NEXT STEPS
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  • Explore the implications of mutually exclusive categories in regression analysis
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Statisticians, data analysts, and researchers involved in injury rate analysis or those working with Poisson regression models in public safety contexts.

FallenApple
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Say for example I want to see the rate of injury for firefighter vs police vs soldier.

##InjuryCount_{i}## The number of injuries recorded for the ith person over time
##T_{i} ## Time the person was followed. Varies from person to person.
##I(f)_{i}## indicator for ith person of being a firefighter or not, police is baseline
##I(s)_{i}## indicator for the ith person of being a soldier or not, police is baseline

Then I would model ##log(InjuryCount_{i}/T_{i})=\beta_{0} +\beta_{1}I(f)_{i}+\beta_{2}I(s)_{i}. ##

Where the regression model is either a poisson, negative binomial, or quasi poisson.

Now how would I intepret the coefficients?

Is ##exp(\beta{0} )## the estimated rate of injury for the baseline group. Or is it the estimated mean rate for the baseline group. I'm not sure which.

If we look at individuals, then I can say that it is the estimated rate of injury for someone belonging in the baseline group.

But if I look at the group, I can say that it is the estimated mean rate for the baseline group as a whole.

Not sure which one is right.
 
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FallenApple said:
indicator for ith person of being a firefighter or not, police is baseline...
indicator for the ith person of being a soldier or not, police is baseline
Do you have subjects where the same subject is both a firefighter and a soldier?
 
Dale said:
Do you have subjects where the same subject is both a firefighter and a soldier?

No, but what might happen if there is overlap?

The way I set up the regression equation would result in log(response)=B_0+0+0 for the police(baseline group) since I suppose that would have to be the result from the categories being mutually exclusive.
 

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