Is a US Recession Inevitable as Soros Predicts the End of Dollar Dominance?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around the potential inevitability of a U.S. recession as predicted by George Soros, who suggests that the era of dollar-backed credit expansion is coming to an end. Participants explore the implications of this prediction, the state of the U.S. economy, and the role of global currency dynamics, particularly regarding the Euro and China's financial strategies.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Soros claims that the U.S. economy is heading towards an "almost inevitable" recession due to a halt in credit flow and a declining willingness of the global community to accumulate dollars.
  • Some participants argue that the U.S. is already experiencing recession-like conditions, citing poor consumer spending and a bear market in stocks.
  • One participant attributes the economic issues to the proliferation of mortgage-backed securities and the unsustainable rise in housing prices over the last decade.
  • Concerns are raised about the impact of large budget deficits on inflation and currency value, with some attributing these deficits to government spending policies over the past years.
  • Others challenge the assertion that the Euro is gaining dominance over the dollar, questioning the political motivations behind such claims and emphasizing the historical context of the Euro's introduction.
  • There are discussions about the implications of foreign ownership of U.S. debt and how it might affect future economic stability.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of views, with some agreeing on the likelihood of a recession while others dispute the severity and timing of such an event. There is no consensus on the causes or the potential outcomes of the current economic situation.

Contextual Notes

Participants highlight various assumptions regarding economic indicators, the definitions of recession, and the impact of government policies, which remain unresolved throughout the discussion.

  • #31
Anttech said:
But the universal truth with economics is one mans loss is another mans gain

This is definitely wrong...but...



russ_watters said:
The idea that wealth is a zero sum game is common among socialists

...(assuming you, as usual, by "socialism" mean market economies of western Europe style) what facts do you base this notion on?
 
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  • #32
No, I mean socialists (I said socialists). People who favor socialism/socialist policies. The very idea comes from Marx. Marx believed that the primary/only way for rich people to become rich was by pushing down the "working class". That's the fundamental tenet of Marxistm. "The rich get richer while the poor get poorer" fallacy that we see so often today from liberal politicians and modern socialists is the modern incarnation of that line of thought. Marx can be forgiven for it due to the times he lived-in (exploitation during the industrial revolution was so widespread it may have been tough to see the unviersal prosperity to come as a result of minor corrections to market economics). Today, it's just a lie that people like to believe even though it is clearly wrong.

More to the point, though, the comment was made by Anttech.
 
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  • #33
Antech's statement said 'one man's loss is another man's gain' as a rule of thumb is generally true.

Russ seems to have equated this with 'one man's gain is another man's loss' (which is something entirely different due to wealth creation) to build a strawman argument.
 
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  • #34
Art said:
Antech's statement said 'one man's loss is another man's gain' as a rule of thumb is generally true.

Russ seems to have equated this with 'one man's gain is another man's loss' (which is something entirely different due to wealth creation) to build a strawman argument.
That's true Art. I misread the sentence too. Appologies to Antech.
 
  • #35
russ_watters said:
No, I mean socialists (I said socialists). People who favor socialism/socialist policies. The very idea comes from Marx.89
But Russ, havn't we discussed this before in a number of threads?
At first I equated socialism with the ideas of Marx, and hence claimed that e.g. Sweden is not a socialistic country. Then I got the impression that you (and many other americans) basically saw all European countries as socialistic. (I even started a thread about how to define socialism: https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=204449 )
That's why I interpreted your use of "socialists" as someone who favours e.g. Swedish (or other western European) wealthfare policies.

"The rich get richer while the poor get poorer" fallacy that we see so often today from liberal politicians and modern socialists is the modern incarnation of that line of thought.
If you by "modern socialists" mean people who favours e.g. Swedish (or other western European) wealthfare policies, I don't get what you mean. I have never heard that kind of reasoning among those people.

Instead I think it is quite commonly agreed that both rich and poor prosper from an efficient market. However, efficiency of the market is not a goal in itself. Although taxation generally decrese the efficiency, it can serve as mean to redistribute sources between different groups in society. It all comes down to the subjective notion of fairness, and how much deadweight loss one is ready to accept in order to reach what one finds to be fair.

The "modern socialists" I know just happens to be ready to accept a higher deadweight loss in order to reduce the income differences between rich and poor. I have never heard anyone say what you claim they do.
 
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