Is Playing the Lottery Worth the Risk?

[russ_watters]

The chances of winning the lottery are always against you. If not, such a lottery would have nett-loss instead of gain. The lottery always has the better chance (well not chance obviously, but about sure) to win.

The one possible exception is getting into a building-jackpot lottery after the first few rounds, when the jackpot exceeds the odds of winning. For someone rich enough, they could buy every ticket and turn a profit on winning!

 

[xxChrisxx]

You are all taking this way too seriously. The answer is very very simple, to play to make money long term is obv -EV. You play for the thrill of being able to win an amount of money that you would otherwise never ever have.

I only ever play the UK lottery if there is a roll over. Yes EV wise I am spending about 75pish every time I play, but still "it could be me that one time" and I could land £XX million. I also play totally random numbers (I select then, not lucky dip).

People fall into the trap of playing the same numbers, meaning that mentally they have to play every week. As Sod's law states that you can gaurantee 100% the week you don't play your numbers, they will come up.

Also RE: Roulette or Craps or any even bet in a casino. Both of you are making valid points on either side. The fact is the Lottery is terrible edge/low risk. Most people won't really miss 7 attemps on the lottery a week (£7/$7) if they lose. Roulette has a much better odds in making a huge amount of money, but is more high risk.

(I used 7 attempts to makes the maths easy). Most people WOULD miss $/£365 in one go, eapecially letting it ride on 1 number on Roulette 3 times even though the odds of a big win are much better.

In reality you probably are better playing to lottery as it's lower risk than playing roulette, and EV and probability of winning is totally irrelevant for this case. Both are -EV and no one really (who plays the lottery formoney) has the bankroll to ride the variance roller coaster of either. IE, either way you need a hell of a lot of luck. The fact you need magnitudes more luck for the lottery is irreleventPlay for the thrill/laugh/whatever not the money.

 

[robheus]

Statistics shows that in some (many) cases the chance of winning a big prize in the lottery is less then the chance you get killed in a car accident.

What a thrill...

 

[xxChrisxx]

ARGH! I'm starting to take this seriously... I should take my own advice and go for a Malibu.

EDIT: Being killed isn't quite as juicy an outcome as winning millions. It's not the probability of the win, it's the dream of the win (everyone knows the long odds but plays anyway).

Russian Roulette has great odds, doubt you'd be thrilled by playing it though.

 

[Danger]

Russian Roulette has great odds, doubt you'd be thrilled by playing it though.

I'm mightily tempted to mention Ukrainian roulette, wherein they remove one cartridge, but that would probably offend someone.

 

[elfboy]

lottery is a tax on stupid people lol

 

[Office_Shredder]

lottery is a tax on stupid people lol

Your fresh insight into the situation has clearly brought closure to the thread

 

[xxChrisxx]

Your fresh insight into the situation has clearly brought closure to the thread

I lol'd IRL!

I had that thought when I read it "welcome to the thread 100 posts ago"