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[mheslep]

This former contractor is living in his sisters basement. He doesn't need any statistics to asses his situation. He is the "Joe the Plumber" of

This is a significant story, and perhaps you have much more relevant personal experience that would carry weight.

But can't you stop there? This habit of yours where you take your personally valid experience, your views, and attribute them to the entire nation, displacing the experience of 300 million others is unattractive.

 

[edward]

Perhaps I should just say a bit more and then I shall leave it at that.

There are no set of statistics or data that can define the American dream or the Changing American dream as in the OP.

If you want to debate statistics and economics you may brush briefly on the American dream but you will not see it, realize what it is, or comprehend that it is closely tied to the pursuit of happiness.

 

[OmCheeto]

This is a significant story, and perhaps you have much more relevant personal experience that would carry weight.

But can't you stop there? This habit of yours where you take your personally valid experience, your views, and attribute them to the entire nation, displacing the experience of 300 million others is unattractive.

Unattractive, maybe, but I've seen the same thing.

I was at my brothers house a few years back. Same house my family has owned since before I was born. There was a tent in the next door neighbor's yard, and I said; "That's so cool. I've always wanted to pitch a tent in my back yard, and just sleep out there, all summer".

My brother told me that the tent had been there several years.

They apparently cover it with blankets and stuff during the winter.

On the opposite side of the yard, is a shed, in the other neighbor's back yard, with an air conditioner in the window. Yup!

The house next to mine, has a two car garage in the back yard. People have lived in the garage for the last several years. The owner of the main house, who lives about 200 miles away, one day, accused me of vandalism.

I looked him in the eye, and said; "Really? You've got crack heads living in your garage, and I've a management position at a major university, and have lived in this house for 20 years. Really?"

He STFU.

ps. I agree with edward's comment; "...the pursuit of happiness".
It's universal.

I could go on all day, with a War and Peace length edwardian diatribe decline that I've seen, but, as I said; "No one wants to hear my blather".*

------------------------------------
* my apologies, for repeating myself, Mr. B.

 

[lisab]

People already on the margins were hit hard in the recession. I, too, know several. But they're easy to miss, and if you live a "mainstream" life you may not rub shoulders with them very often.

Of course anecdotes don't make good data...so let's look at some data (we love data!).

The food stamp data used in graphs below only go back to 1996, and stop at 2010. But the upward trend is clear:

http://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2012-march/what%E2%80%99s-behind-the-rise-in-snap-participation.aspx#.VAnK82PFM_A

But data on this site show there is a recent (slight) downward trend in the % of Americans on SNAP ("food stamps") - it's now under 47,000,000:

http://frac.org/reports-and-resources/snapfood-stamp-monthly-participation-data/

Looking at those numbers, it's hard to say times are good and everyone is doing great, and the American Dream is alive and well. We're not in the 1990s anymore, Toto.

 

[OmCheeto]

People already on the margins were hit hard in the recession. I, too, know several. But they're easy to miss, and if you live a "mainstream" life you may not rub shoulders with them very often.

Of course anecdotes don't make good data...so let's look at some data (we love data!).

...
Looking at those numbers, it's hard to say times are good and everyone is doing great, and the American Dream is alive and well. We're not in the 1990s anymore, Toto.

You can download more data from http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap

It has data going back to 1969.

Here's a graph I just extracted:

Number of people on SNAP by year​

It shows that numerically, SNAP participation has increased by 277% from 2000 through 2013.

year    # of people on SNAP     % of population
1969     2,878,000                  1.42%
2000    17,194,000                  6.09%
2013    47,636,000                 15.1%

I would extrapolate from the graph, the year we are all going be needing food assistance, but I believe I'll be dead by then, so I don't care.

 

[Vanadium 50]

A comment I made some months ago:

Yes, but if the government goes on an advertising spree to try and enroll more people, how do you know what the cause of the changing demographic of recipients is?

 

[OmCheeto]

A comment I made some months ago:

Yes, but if the government goes on an advertising spree to try and enroll more people, how do you know what the cause of the changing demographic of recipients is?

I haven't watched TV in about 6 years, and can't find any data on advertising for the program.

The CBO had this to say:

What Are Some Characteristics of SNAP Beneficiaries?
In 2010, about three out of four SNAP households included a child, a person age 60 or older, or a disabled person. Most people who received SNAP benefits lived in households with very low income, about $8,800 per year on average in that year. The average monthly SNAP benefit per household was $287, or $4.30 per person per day. On average, SNAP benefits boosted gross monthly income by 39 percent for all participating households and by 45 percent for households with children.

I'm afraid I would have to start collecting returnable cans and get SNAP benefits if I only made $8,800 per year. That would leave me only $130 a month after my $600 mortgage payment. Still lower than the lowest though:

What Does the Average Home Owner Pay on a Mortgage?

Meanwhile, in Mississippi, home owners take on the lowest loan amounts at $137,182 or $655 monthly mortgage payments, on average.

 

[Vanadium 50]

I haven't watched TV in about 6 years, and can't find any data on advertising for the program.

http://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=food+stamp+advertising
2 million hits.

This program was somewhat controversial, for a number of reasons (advertising in Mexico attracted criticism on both sides of the spectrum, with the right complaining that it was encouraging illegal immigration, and the left complaining that the money should have been targeting Americans in need) but my point doesn't take any sides in that: if you measure rates pre- and post- advertising, you don't know how much of the change is due to the advertising and how much is due to changes in the underlying economic conditions.

 

[russ_watters]

Right: tracking benefits as a measure of the health of the economy is tough because the programs change, so it is difficult to compare them across time.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Exactly. Nobody would argue that between 1929 and 1935 the US Economy must have been just peachy, because nobody was on Social Security.

 

[russ_watters]

From Lisa's link:

But economic factors alone do not fully explain the growth in SNAP participation. Changes in SNAP policies, some of them associated with the 2002 and 2008 Farm Acts, have made benefits easier to apply for, available to more people, and more generous. Parsing out the relative effects of policy changes and macroeconomic conditions in a dynamic economy is difficult.

 

[lisab]

There are many ways to track the economic health of the US. Also from the link:

http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/360307/feature5_fig01_1_.gif

The number of people in poverty correlates well with SNAP participants (as one would expect).

Both have been increasing since 2000, despite the absence of a media campaign to encourage people to become poor.

 

[OmCheeto]

http://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=food+stamp+advertising
2 million hits.

This program was somewhat controversial, for a number of reasons (advertising in Mexico attracted criticism on both sides of the spectrum, with the right complaining that it was encouraging illegal immigration, and the left complaining that the money should have been targeting Americans in need) but my point doesn't take any sides in that: if you measure rates pre- and post- advertising, you don't know how much of the change is due to the advertising and how much is due to changes in the underlying economic conditions.

Thanks!

http://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q="food+stamp+advertising"
About 7,370 results (0.35 seconds)

I had googled for "SNAP advertising" and got a bunch of advertising agencies named "Snap".

Jan 29, 2014

A new House-passed farm bill bans the Department of Agriculture from actively recruiting or advertising for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), also known as food stamps.

On Wednesday, the House passed the Agriculture Act of 2014, a five-year farm bill, by a vote of 251-166.

(ref)

I can only see one downside to this.

Free money blipverts...​

though... WAIT!
The government will pay off my mortgage?
Let me click on that link!

 

[OmCheeto]

...blipverts...

hmmm...

Last year, PwC^[1] estimated that advertisers spent $63.8 billion on TV, about 75% more than they did on online ads and more than they did on all other traditional media combined.

(ref)

I'm getting so bad at math lately. Does "75% more" mean we multiply $63.8 billion by 1.75?

That would be about $112 billion we spent on advertising, which seems to be a bit more than the $80 billion we are spending to feed poor people.

hmmm...

At least it's more than we spent, feeding our cats, dogs, and goldfish^[2]...

Americans spent a record $56 billion on pets last year

[1] PricewaterhouseCoopers
[2] I paid $18.95 for 7.06 oz (200g) for goldfish food yesterday. Stoopid renters across the street abandoned their 4 goldfish 2 weeks ago, and being a bleeding heart liberal, I took them in...

 

[Astronuc]

"In this 2004 (3-4 years before the economy began to tank and the financial crisis hit the US and other parts of the world) interview, four years ahead of the financial crisis that triggered the Great Recession, Elizabeth Warren, who was then a law professor at Harvard, seems to be looking into a crystal ball."

http://billmoyers.com/segment/flashback-elizabeth-warren-basically-predicts-the-great-recession/

"The active phase of the crisis, which manifested as a liquidity crisis, can be dated from August 9, 2007, when BNP Paribas terminated withdrawals from three hedge funds citing "a complete evaporation of liquidity"."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007–08

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/dec/28/markets-credit-crunch-banking-2008

 

[mheslep]

So sayeth Bill Moyers.

 

[OmCheeto]

...
Of course anecdotes don't make good data...so let's look at some data (we love data!).
...

Shoah foundation project:

anecdotal style:

107,000 hours of video testimony

data style:

A bunch of people died.
fin​

I like edward's anecdotes.

I spent 3 hours going through that "What [*** ****] is wrong with the US economy" thread yesterday, where I saw one of your anecdotes:

But I don't think you ever saw the economy through my eyes. I work in a lab that serves the building industry. We've been in a recession for many, many months. But things have taken an ugly turn in the last few weeks, from bad to unprecidented. We're looking at a 50% cut in income in the next quarter - and possibly worse in the quarter after that. I expect to lose my job.

It prompted me to post the above, and the following:

100 of my friends just lost their jobs this last Tuesday. They are all younger than I am.

ps. Astro's immediate prior post had me thinking too, in a timeline, kind of way...

The SEC eliminated the uptick rule on July 6, 2007.

from August 9, 2007, when BNP Paribas terminated withdrawals from three hedge funds

When someone can make a billion dollars, in one day, because there are people, making up, "funny rules", then, dreams will die.

----------------------------
ok to delete. my thoughts are saved.
ps. I have about 1000 other thoughts too, but they mostly involve sentences starting with words starting with the letter "F"...

 

[lisab]

Oh I have nothing at all against anecdotes! This particular forum is full of them! They often are better at putting a human touch on a situation than cold, dry facts.

But when dealing with a topic like poverty or underemployment or how our society is changing due to economics, there are soooo much data available! Graphs and tables and statistics :!) - oh yeah baby :!).

And I've yet to see data showing that young people are likely to have a better life (economically) that us old 'uns. That makes me very sad.

 

[OmCheeto]

...

And I've yet to see data showing that young people are likely to have a better life (economically) that us old 'uns. That makes me very sad.

This is exactly what has been eating me all week.

After 999 angry rants on Facebook, someone had the audacity to post:

Actually "HAPPINESS is a Choice" (Abraham Lincoln) So, choose to be HAPPY. It is also a classic book by Minirth. Check it out.

I was so angry by this response, I had to shut up, and say nothing.

I wanted to tell her to go buy 50,000 copies, and distribute them to all the unhappy people in Ferguson. Problem solved!
And those ISIS fellows? Let's translate it into Arabic. Problem solved!
Putin? Russian. Solved!

Just choose to be happy?

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

-----------------------------
"There's a darkness upon us that's flooded in light
And I'm [STRIKE]frightened[/STRIKE] [STRIKE]pissed[/STRIKE] frightened by those who wear rose colored glasses, because they don't want to see it"
me and the Avett Bro's.

 

[edward]

So sayeth Bill Moyers.

No actually, so sayeth Elisabeth Warren in 2004 no less. Bill Moyers didn't do the interview.

http://billmoyers.com/segment/flashback-elizabeth-warren-basically-predicts-the-great-recession/

 

[mheslep]

There are many ways to track the economic health of the US. Also from the link:

...

The number of people in poverty correlates well with SNAP participants (as one would expect).

Both have been increasing since 2000, despite the absence of a media campaign to encourage people to become poor.

The SNAP statistics are clear, quantifiable. The poverty rate definition is much more subjective.

 

[mheslep]

No actually, so sayeth Elisabeth Warren in 2004 no less. Bill Moyers didn't do the interview.

http://billmoyers.com/segment/flashback-elizabeth-warren-basically-predicts-the-great-recession/

The "crystal ball" quote given by Astronuc comes from the editorial narration on Moyer's website. Because the narrator says so does not make it so.

 

[edward]

The "crystal ball" quote given by Astronuc comes from the editorial narration on Moyer's website. Because the narrator says so does not make it so.

Watch the video.

 

[mheslep]

Watch the video.

Watch the video on many economists and financial experts who warned about the problem, including advisers in the early Bush II administration. Though generally right, they also don't deserve being singled out as the only "crystal ball" seer.

E.g. 2006, 2007
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUl8i9WurAI

 

[OmCheeto]

Watch the video on many economists and financial experts who warned about the problem, including advisers in the early Bush II administration. Though generally right, they also don't deserve being singled out as the only "crystal ball" seer.

E.g. 2006, 2007
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUl8i9WurAI

Ha! Discounting Schiff, who seems to have gotten everything right, the only phrenologist missing from that video was that Mad Money Cramer guy.

ps. And someone a while back mentioned that Schiff had predicted "things" even earlier:

Also Schiff has been predicting this crash since 2002

Can't remember who that was.

OMG! It's the 6 year anniversary of my first post in that thread:

Sep8-08, 07:13 PM

I wasn't aware that there was something wrong with the US economy.

Perhaps it is the world economies catching up with ours that makes it look so bad?

Man, did I have a lot to learn.

pps. OMG! It's this threads 1st year anniversary!

Life is strange, and often times, quite coincidental. I also heard that it is going to be a full moon tonight. hmmm...

 

[Astronuc]

America's wealth gap 'unsustainable,' may worsen: Harvard study

BOSTON (Reuters) - The widening gap between America's wealthiest and its middle and lower classes is "unsustainable", but is unlikely to improve any time soon, according to a Harvard Business School study released on Monday.

The study, titled "An Economy Doing Half its Job", said American companies - particularly big ones - were showing some signs of recovering their competitive edge on the world stage since the financial crisis, but that workers would likely keep struggling to demand better pay and benefits.

"We argue that such a divergence is unsustainable," according to the report, which was based on a survey of 1,947 of Harvard Business School alumni around the globe, and which highlighted problems with the U.S. education system, transport infrastructure, and the effectiveness of the political system.
. . . .

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ameri...worsen-harvard-study-110255435--business.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/08/us-usa-harvard-survey-idUSKBN0H30ZN20140908

http://www.hbs.edu/competitiveness/pdf/an-economy-doing-half-its-job.pdf


Meanwhile - World's Richest People Meet, Muse On How To Spread The Wealth
http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/...-people-meet-muse-on-how-to-spread-the-wealth


How about 'inclusive capitalism'?

http://www.inclusivecapitalism.org/

 

[edward]

Unlike others who predicted the recession (and he is still predicting) Peter Shiff had a money making motive. The guy sells gold! The man has no connection to the Changing American Dream in any way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cNwaA5sNr8

 

[OmCheeto]

Unlike others who predicted the recession (and he is still predicting) Peter Shiff had a money making motive. The guy sells gold! The man has no connection to the Changing American Dream in any way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cNwaA5sNr8

Believe it or not, I agree with you. His comment about gold sounds completely opposite to his comments when talking to Laffer from the previous video, because to me it's the same thing.

Nov30-08

I suppose the lust for gold is such an old tradition, one shouldn't worry too much about it's value going down. Until of course, people figure out it's really just a pretty, shiny metal, with little real value. (Outside of electronics, space helmet visors, dental crowns, and O2 sensors.)

Look at Kitco's 10 year gold price history. It peaked at $1900 in Sept 2011, and is now at ≈$1260.
His gold bubble burst, just like the housing and stock bubbles.

But everyone has to make a living selling something. Though, I didn't buy his gold, and won't.

As I've said before, I ain't believin' nothin' till I see it in the history books.

 

[OmCheeto]

How about 'inclusive capitalism'?

http://www.inclusivecapitalism.org/

Interesting set of people.

The capitalist threat to capitalism

Winston Churchill famously observed that democracy is the worst form of government – apart from all the others that have been tried. Were he alive today, he might think the same of capitalism as a vehicle for economic and social progress.

Capitalism has guided the world economy to unprecedented prosperity. Yet it has also proved dysfunctional in important ways. It often encourages shortsightedness, contributes to wide disparities between the rich and the poor, and tolerates the reckless treatment of environmental capital.

If these costs cannot be controlled, support for capitalism may disappear – and with it, humanity’s best hope for economic growth and prosperity. It is therefore time to consider new models for capitalism that are emerging around the world – specifically, conscious capitalism, moral capitalism, and inclusive capitalism.

I googled the name of the guy from the NPR article that had something critical to say about the conference. I tried to get through one of his articles, and can quite honestly say, that if he were a member of PF, he'd be on my ignore list.

I only did that, as Robert Reich, on FB the other day, said;

I have a conservative friend with whom I make a point to have lunch at least once a month. Why? I like him but that’s not the main reason. He makes me think. In forcing me defend my assumptions and ideas, he gets me to examine them more deeply. I hope I do the same for him. One of the biggest problems in America today is most of us live in ideological cocoons surrounded by people who think like us. Yet there is no better way to learn than to talk to someone who disagrees with you.

There are differing opinions, and then, there's blather.

 

[KL7AJ]

The Great Recession and aftermath have apparently changed perceptions regarding home ownerhip and financial security.

The New American Dream: It's Not What You Think
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-dream-not-think-173054394.html

Usually owning a home means going into debt, i.e., paying a mortgage, for some time, unless one has substantial assets.

Do folks see owning a home or living debt-free as eventualities? Is retirement at 65 to 70 feasible?

There's smart debt and stupid debt. Going into debt to buy a car is stupid debt. Going into debt to buy a house is smart debt. Going into debt to start a business is smart debt...if you're arealdy smart about your business!

Going into debt on student loan is stupid^2.

Eric