Key factors for Obama and McCain to win in 2008

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  • Thread starter Thread starter Evo
  • Start date Start date

Who will win the General Election?

  • Obama by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 16 50.0%

  • Obama by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%

  • McCain by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 4 12.5%

  • McCain by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%
  • Total voters
    32
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Now, even Christopher Hitchens is voting for Obama. How many other conservatives will follow? Kathleen Parker has so excoriated Palin that it is highly unlikely that she will vote for McCain, though she may just stay away on election day.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/thenation/20081013/cm_thenation/45371832;_ylt=AlEeEVmSfdC5mHV3_B_7mbys0NUE
 
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mathwonk said:
good points, maybe bush is much worse after all. i had forgotten some of those points, temporarily. and cheney is kind of a modern version of haldeman and ehrlichman and mitchell. but gosh those guys were really awful as well. of course nixon was actually intelligent and pretty competent in some areas.

ignoring habeusm corpus does have to be considered pretty unique.

there is a special hell for such no goodniks i hope. ... like maybe an eternal guantanamo or abu ghraib? or is that too vindictive? I hate to wish that even on them.

The problem with BAD ATTORNEYS is they know their way AROUND the law...if they want to bend it, stretch it or outright break it...they know the weak spots and how to cover themselves.

A modern day example might be when a high profile organization gives a large sum of money, hundreds of thousands of dollars, to a second organization loosely affiliated with a third organization that has some problems controlling renegade employees...the first organization can't be linked to the third and nobody knows what's going on and nobody is accountable. Proof of wrongdoing is nearly impossible to develop...lot's of hear-say and ignorant shrugs...otherwise it could result in a RICO prosecution. But "good" lawyers can easily create doubt. Yes, Nixon was a smart man...but is he a good lawyer or a bad lawyer?
 
turbo-1 said:
Now, even Christopher Hitchens is voting for Obama. How many other conservatives will follow? Kathleen Parker has so excoriated Palin that it is highly unlikely that she will vote for McCain, though she may just stay away on election day.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/thenation/20081013/cm_thenation/45371832;_ylt=AlEeEVmSfdC5mHV3_B_7mbys0NUE

I don't think there was ever any love to lose between the Conservative literates and McCain, but the choice of Palin has exposed a very fundamental schism in the Republican Party.

Intellectually Palin is an abomination. A minah bird prepared to misquote Reagan or McCain at will. A candidate prepared to lie about inconvenient facts like the ethics violations. An anti-environmentalist Pentecostal prepared to impose her faith based beliefs in the face of scientific facts - sending polar bears to extinction in the name of Drill, baby, drill. And to top it off showing only a beauty contestants grasp of history or issues. But sadly she has appealed to the fanatical wing of the Republican Party and these signs of intolerance and ignorance and narcissistic hypocrisy are apparently of no concern to them.
 
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Obama leads McCain by 14 points: CBS/NYT poll

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama leads his Republican rival John McCain by 14 percentage points, with three weeks to go until the U.S. election, a CBS News/New York Times poll showed on Tuesday.

Obama had 53 percent support to McCain's 39 percent in the national opinion poll, CBS News said. Obama's lead was 3 points higher than in the previous poll on October 6.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081014/pl_nm/us_usa_politics_poll_cbs_1;_ylt=ApVhL3Jxah_VUzWFJO4Ta3TCw5R4
 
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Evo said:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081014/pl_nm/us_usa_politics_poll_cbs_1;_ylt=ApVhL3Jxah_VUzWFJO4Ta3TCw5R4
That poll is an outlier.

On the lighter side:

1. The Great Schlep -> http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/13/great.schlep/index.html
A Yiddish word meaning to pull, yank or tug, schlep is a good way of describing what it took for Mike Bender to persuade his grandparents to vote for Sen. Barack Obama for president.

Bender's grandparents, Kenny and Selma Furst, 90 and 87 years old, should have been an easy sell to support the Democratic nominee for president.

Like many of the estimated 650,000 Jews living in Florida, the Fursts are lifelong, passionate Democrats and a crucial vote for any Democratic candidate hoping to win the battleground state.

But when Bender -- who is not affiliated with Obama's campaign but supports him -- brought up the idea of voting for Obama over Thanksgiving dinner last year, he was met with an uncharacteristic silence.

"Their reaction was, as they said, 'I'm a little meschugah,' " Bender said, adding that the expression meant "crazy."

For Selma Furst, voting for an African-American for president seemed unthinkable.
...
"The older demographic particularly were being hit with tons and tons of Obama smear e-mails," Wallach said. "If you really want to talk to them in a way that will bring them over to the Obama side, you want to do it one to one, ideally with people they love. And grandparents love no one more than their grandkids."

And so the Great Schlep was born. The idea was that young, Jewish Democrats would flood Florida and convince their elders that voting for Obama was OK.
...
When Bender recently returned to his grandparents' retirement community in Tamarac, Florida, near Fort Lauderdale, he was greeted with several surprises. Months of telephone conversations and his trip had paid off: His grandparents told him shortly after he arrived that they were going to support Obama.

The next surprise was that his schlep had generated interest around their retirement community. A lot of interest. So many other seniors wanted to hear about Obama that the venue for a meeting on the subject had to be changed from the Furst's living room to a ballroom in the community's clubhouse.

An hour before Bender started to make his case about Obama on Sunday, groups of senior citizens were staking out space in the ballroom. Soon there were more than 100 people and no more chairs.

Sporting an Obama T-shirt with Hebrew writing on it, retiree Morty Brill said, "The economy, the war, you think you can trust Republicans to fix them?"

If there were any people in the room with reservations about Barack Obama, they kept those doubts to themselves.

As Bender told the crowd that Obama was not a Muslim and that Obama was a staunch supporter of Israel, he was met with heads nodding in agreement throughout the room.
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However, Bender felt the need to drive the point further. If Obama was elected, he said, then Bender would not worry so much about politics and "would have more time to find a nice Jewish girl to marry."

Whether Mike Bender's schlep really changed any minds is anyone's guess, but the applause from the crowd was deafening.

2. Kids call race for Obama -> http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/marketwire/0442383.htm
Student Voters Pick Senator Barack Obama to Win 2008 Presidential Election
Marketwire
- Scholastic Election Poll Has Mirrored Outcome of Every Presidential Election But Two Since 1940

The votes are in and student voters have spoken: Democratic nominee Senator Barack Obama is the winner of the 2008 Scholastic Election Poll, with 57% of the vote over Republican contender Senator John McCain, who received 39% of the student vote. The poll, conducted every four years through Scholastic classroom magazines like Scholastic News® and Junior Scholastic® and online at Scholastic News Online (www.scholastic.com/news[/URL]), is an educational activity that gives children too young to go to the polls themselves the opportunity to cast their vote for President. A quarter of a million students from across the country participated in the Scholastic Election Poll.

Since 1940, the results of the student vote in the Scholastic Election Poll (online voting was added in 2000) have mirrored the outcome of the general election, except twice: in 1948 when students chose Thomas E. Dewey over Harry S. Truman and in 1960 when more students voted for Richard M. Nixon than John F. Kennedy.[/quote]
 
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Gallup shows it a 9 point lead among registered voters and 6% among likely to vote "traditional" and 10% among likely to vote "expanded".
 
Evo said:
That's awesome.

Seriously, McCain is not the same person he was even at the beginning of this year. I can see how even 5-6 months ago someone might have felt ok with voting for McCain, I would have been ok with him as President as he seemed sensible and moderate. But I have seen him throw logic and reasoning out the door seemingly due to an irrational desire to win the Presidency at any cost to this nation.

Not to be cynical, but I'd expect more of the old McCain for the rest of the campaign. He's still one of the most respected members of the Senate and I think the odds of winning are getting too high to be worth permanently trashing his reputation for.

I think he made a mistake in a lot of the tactics his campaign used. Still, the real killer has been the economy. The party in the White House always gets booted when the economy tanks and economy wasn't exactly McCain's area of expertise in any event.
 
This may be it. It could be all over now. Dennis Hopper is going Obama. I think the Nation is now officially mesmerized. Galvanized by McCain's Blunder of selecting Palin.

AFP said:
Dennis Hopper praying for Obama victory
Mon Oct 13, 4:14 PM ET

PARIS (AFP) - Dennis Hopper, the US actor-director perhaps best known for the 1969 road-movie "Easy Rider", is praying for victory by Barack Obama in next month's elections, he said on Monday.

"I voted for Bush, father and son, but this time I'll vote for Obama," he told journalists at the opening of a show on his life and work at the Paris cinematheque.

Hopper is to be handed France's order of Commander of Arts and Letters by the culture minister later Monday.

"I was the first person in my family to have been Republican," he added. "For most of my life I wasn't on the left."

"I pray God, Barack Obama is elected," he said, criticising the current administration's many "lies."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081013/en_afp/entertainmentfilmhopperus
 
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I will be speeding up the frequency of updates as we go through the final three weeks (some columns, like CNN, will not change very much as they will not update as often as I). My prediction from a few days back of a deflating bubble seems not to be happening. If anything, the numbers are only turning more in Obama's favor - over half the states that were toss-ups a month ago (CO, MN, VA and FL) are now leaning Obama, according to most pollsters. OH is drifting slowly closer and closer to Obamaland, and WV has come into play - though, I suspect that's more likely from polling error than anything else.

Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
                     AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                 |     PROJECTIONS
                                                                 |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  Pollster | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P   
                                                                      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191            |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180            |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180            |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177            |  338/200    293/245
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188            |  306/232    293/245
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177            |  311/227    293/245
07/21   255/163  322/216  231/194  312/199    268/172   293/214  |  298/240    293/245
07/26   238/163  322/216  221/189  292/195    264/175   284/147  |  338/200    298/240
08/11   238/163  322/216  221/189  289/236    264/202   284/157  |  298/240    293/245
08/21   228/174  264/274  221/189  264/261    264/210   260/191  |  264/274    293/245
08/26   228/174  273/265  221/189  273/252    259/210   260/176  |  273/265    293/245
09/06   238/174  273/265  243/189  301/224    259/194   260/179  |  278/260    293/245                                                                           
09/16   207/227  286/252  233/189  247/257    216/246   243/219  |  273/265    273/265
09/26   228/163  286/252  240/200  286/252    264/185   229/174  |  273/265    273/265
10/01   249/163  348/190  250/189  286/190    264/185   250/174  |  273/265    273/265 
10/06   264/163  353/185  250/189  329/194    316/174   260/163  |  364/174    273/265 
10/11   277/158  353/185  264/174  343/184    329/158   320/158  |  364/174    273/265 
10/15   286/158  364/174  264/174  357/181    349/158   320/155  |  369/169   273/265

Market Update:
Code: 
               INTRADE       IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKET

           Obama    McCain      Dem     Rep
Jun 26     $64.1    $32.4      0.622   0.378
Jul 11     $65.0    $31.2      0.643   0.358
Jul 26     $63.2    $32.2      0.688   0.355
Aug 11     $59.9    $37.2      0.621   0.377
Aug 21     $59.0    $38.7      0.607   0.394
Sep 01     $61.1    $39.2      0.602   0.395
Sep 11     $49.0    $49.9      0.540   0.462
Sep 21     $51.3    $47.7      0.601   0.392
Oct 01     $64.8    $34.6      0.651   0.322
Oct 11     $78.1    $21.9      0.840   0.160   
Oct 15     $80.1    $20.0      0.820   0.185
 
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Whewwww, finally the last of what, 22 debates for Obama?

This may be McCain's last chance to turn this around.

I keep bouncing back and forth between giddy enthusiasm, and morbid fear. Palin is scary.
 
BobG said:
Still, the real killer has been the economy. The party in the White House always gets booted when the economy tanks
Oddly the opposite effect is cited in the UK and Canada.
In bad times people instinctively vote conservative and only feel they can afford the 'luxuary' of a liberal/labour vote when times are good.
The good economy is reckoned to be one of the reasons for the UK labour win in 97 and the bad economy for the Canadian conservative win recently.
 
Here, the notions of "conservative" and "liberal" are moot. The Republicans are no longer conservative, and the Dems have conservatives like Jim Webb.

Some of the nation's best known conservatives, like Will, Brooks, and Buckley, are supporting Obama.
 
Ivan Seeking said:
Here, the notions of "conservative" and "liberal" are moot. The Republicans are no longer conservative, and the Dems have conservatives like Jim Webb.
Yes the names and what they do when in power are pretty disconnected everywhere.
The republicans have an heriderity president and the Labour party couldn't spell socialism.

The point remains that although in mid-terms/by-elections people vote to blame the government. In national elections they tend to vote for 'perceived' conservatives when times are bad and 'perceived' left when times are good. Irrespective of who seems to have caused the mess in the first place.

Of course it might all be a conspiracy by the Republicans to throw the election so that the other side have to take the blame for the fallout from the current mess :wink:
 
Interesting development!

Is McCain copying Hillary?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081015/pl_politico/14599
On Sept. 24, Hillary Rodham Clinton received a surprise phone call from the man she’s often denounced as an economic know-nothing: John McCain.

This was no social call, even though Clinton likes McCain enough to keeps his photo on the wall of her Senate office. The GOP nominee had already chatted with Bill Clinton about the mortgage crisis and wanted to pick the senator’s brain about her new proposal to have the federal government buy up bad mortgages and renegotiate terms more favorable to homeowners on verge of default.
. . . .
Three weeks later, at the town hall debate in Nashville, Tenn., McCain rolled out a $300 billion anti-foreclosure plan that’s similar, if not identical, to Clinton’s — and subsequently credited the concept “to a suggestion that Sen. Hillary Clinton made not that long ago.”
. . . .
Clinton aides, speaking on condition of anonymity, said she is still smarting over her loss, but is gratified Obama and McCain have carried parts of her agenda. And they say she’s downright tickled that McCain, a lifelong crusader against government spending, is getting in touch with his inner Hillary to woo her white, working-class base and female voters not sold on Obama.

“It’s hilarious. It’s like McCain is trying to copy her, but he’s using a busted Xerox machine,” said one of Clinton’s top campaign advisers. “We were out in front on the economy. She was the first one to really pay attention to people’s anxieties, and both Obama and McCain have been playing catch-up ever since.”
. . . .
Politics makes for strange . . . .

McCain-Clinton would have been an interesting ticket. That might have alienated the religious right, but women probably would have been attracted to the ticket.
 
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With the latest poll showing Obama up by 53-43, CNN just moved Va into the "leaning Obama" column, which puts him over the top at 277 on their electoral map. Apparently Va hasn't voted for a Democrat in 40 years.

The latest poll also has Obama up by 9 points in Colorado, which is considered a toss-up State, and normally safe Rep territory.
 
mgb_phys said:
Of course it might all be a conspiracy by the Republicans to throw the election so that the other side have to take the blame for the fallout from the current mess :wink:

If it is it isn't working. The Economy is in the toilet already before their guy slipped out the back door.

Whoever inherits the job now will virtually be assured a free pass. It's not like they can muck it up more than Bush has managed.
 
I just heard that Chris Buckley has left the National Review - the Conservative publication founded by his father - over his announced support of Obama.
 
LowlyPion said:
It's not like they can muck it up more than Bush has managed.
Thats the sort of challenge a presidential candidate can really step up to!
 
:smile:

"Hardball" Way Too Hard for Obama Supporter Kirk Watson.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jj4VK9wVAi0&feature=related
 
Astronuc said:
Politics makes for strange . . . .

McCain-Clinton would have been an interesting ticket.
The original vice president was the person who came second in the vote (before political parties!) so an Obama/McCain or an Obama/Palin Whitehouse.
 
B. Elliott said:
:smile:

"Hardball" Way Too Hard for Obama Supporter Kirk Watson.

The man said that he couldn't answer the question, but how many times did they continue to ask? Are they so stupid that they don't understand what he said?

Did you watch the entire video. Olbermann then asked Mathews to name one accomplishment of the US Senate, and he couldn't. And all that the guy does is report the alleged news!

You might try not watching nonsense. Anyone who yells at the camera or into the microphone is not a trustworthy news source.
 
Ivan Seeking said:
The man said that he couldn't answer the question, but how many times did they continue to ask? Are they so stupid that they don't understand what he said?

Did you watch the entire video. Olbermann then asked Mathews to name one accomplishment of the US Senate, and he couldn't. And all that the guy does is report the alleged news!

You might try not watching nonsense. Anyone who yells at the camera or into the microphone is not a trustworthy news source.

Well, as he said he wasn't there to defend the Senate. If a senator is going on national news to support/defend a presidential nominee, you bet your butt they better know of at least one accomplishment.
 
B. Elliott said:
Well, as he said he wasn't there to defend the Senate. If a senator is going on national news to support/defend a presidential nominee, you bet your butt they better know of at least one accomplishment.
Watson is a state senator, as opposed to US, but one would expect him to know at least one important piece of legislation or some legislative action by Obama.
 
Too funny! Obama billboard signs are appearing as background in at least two video games, but only in games distributed in key swing States.
 
Ivan Seeking said:
Too funny! Obama billboard signs are appearing as background in at least two video games, but only in games distributed in key swing States.

Obamas campaign (and other supporters with big bucks) are paying to have them put in. McCain's has planned on doing the same thing.
 
More good news for Obama.

Obama's 'Diplomacy' Wins a Republican Endorsement

The ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee parted ways with his party's presidential nominee Wednesday by endorsing Democrat Barack Obama's approach to diplomacy.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20081015/pl_cq_politics/politics2975236
 
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Obama's selection of Biden was a good move. If he had selected Lugar or Hagel instead, that would have been a GREAT move. Game over. There are a lot of true conservatives who like Obama's ideas, including many who are disgusted with Bush/Cheney's pathetic abdication of realistic foreign policy. Either Lugar or Hagel would be good choices for Sec. of State, though Richardson is my favorite.
 
thank you to the loyal opposition, but i think (hope) it is in a losing cause.

written vitae do not substitute for how the man presents himself.

as my thesis advisor told me, no one cares what you have done, they care about who you are.

i.e. what do you bring to the table now?
 

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