Key factors for Obama and McCain to win in 2008

[LowlyPion]

I think they were way too stupid to perform any massacre.

As the account has unfolded, I think the only people at greatest risk from them is them.

 

[LowlyPion]

Schism:

Republican fears of historic Obama landslide unleash civil war for the future of the party
Senior Republicans believe that John McCain is doomed to a landslide defeat which will hand Barack Obama more political power than any president in a generation.
... "There's going to be a bloodbath. A lot of people are going to be excommunicated. David Brooks and David Frum and Peggy Noonan are dead people in the Republican Party. The litmus test will be: where did you stand on Palin?"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/3260074/Republican-fears-of-historic-Obama-landslide-unleash-civil-war-for-the-future-of-the-party.html

The Republican Party is going to look a lot smaller I think. I read elsewhere that it has been Romney staffers that have been leaking stuff about Palin to sabotage her rise. That means the party is going to be pretty much Balkanized moving forward.

I guess they are all saying thanks to George Bush.

 

[jal]

The following is only a small extract of some very good points. Go read the rest.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/3260074/Republican-fears-of-historic-Obama-landslide-unleash-civil-war-for-the-future-of-the-party.html

Republican fears of historic Obama landslide unleash civil war for the future of the party
Senior Republicans believe that John McCain is doomed to a landslide defeat which will hand Barack Obama more political power than any president in a generation.

-------
Note:
The Canadians do not like a minority gov. and they went to the poll to try to get a majority. They could not get it.
A minority gov. ties up the passing of laws and causes unwanted compromises.
-----------

Jim Nuzzo, a White House aide to the first President Bush, dismissed Mrs Palin's critics as "cocktail party conservatives" who "give aid and comfort to the enemy".
He told The Sunday Telegraph: "There's going to be a bloodbath. A lot of people are going to be excommunicated. David Brooks and David Frum and Peggy Noonan are dead people in the Republican Party. The litmus test will be: where did you stand on Palin?"
Mr Frum thinks that Mrs Palin's brand of cultural conservatism appeals only to a dwindling number of voters.
He said: "She emerges from this election as the probable frontrunner for the 2012 nomination. Her supporters vastly outnumber her critics. But it will be extremely difficult for her to win the presidency."

Somebody is dreaming in color if they think that Palin has the financial means to jump ahead of better candidates who have put in years in politics building their own network for a chance to get to be president.
She has no money and no support.
She has given a "negative image" to women who had inspirations. McCain did a disfavour to all women by chosing Palin.

 

[LowlyPion]

The following is only a small extract of some very good points. Go read the rest.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/3260074/Republican-fears-of-historic-Obama-landslide-unleash-civil-war-for-the-future-of-the-party.html

-------
Note:
The Canadians do not like a minority gov. and they went to the poll to try to get a majority. They could not get it.
A minority gov. ties up the passing of laws and causes unwanted compromises.
-----------

Somebody is dreaming in color if they think that Palin has the financial means to jump ahead of better candidates who have put in years in politics building their own network for a chance to get to be president.
She has no money and no support.
She has given a "negative image" to women who had inspirations. McCain did a disfavour to all women by chosing Palin.

I think this is the pinnacle of what will be her career. She is surely the reason for this polarizing campaign. And her competence is a real question. Being isolated in Alaska out of the mainstream, she will not likely be getting any more useful experience from just looking at Russia.

She will be another Dan Quayle. And in 4 years under Obama who's to know what the world will look like. It's not likely he will have done worse than Bush. I rather think this election is for 8 years anyway.

 

[Astronuc]

I think Palin's supporters are primarily far right fringe in the GOP. She'd probably to well in parts of the south and east below the Mason-Dixon line, in Texas, and parts of the west.

Her attacks on business want help her much elsewhere.

Her divisiveness and disparagement of the larger general population make her unfit for national office - not to mention her patronage system in Alaska's state government.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I think this is the pinnacle of what will be her career. She is surely the reason for this polarizing campaign. And her competence is a real question. Being isolated in Alaska out of the mainstream, she will not likely be getting any more useful experience from just looking at Russia.

She will be another Dan Quayle. And in 4 years under Obama who's to know what the world will look like. It's not likely he will have done worse than Bush. I rather think this election is for 8 years anyway.

I see two possible paths: Either we will continue to elect incompetent tricksters based on religious bias, fear, and morality plays, or, the internet, and the relentless microscope of the media will expose these paper tigers for their true nature, and we will start electing people like Obama. In the former case, I see fascism taking a strong hold, and for the course of my life, all hope is lost. In the latter case, the so called "conservative party" will slowly dissociate from the extremists and return to respectability - and Sarah Palin will be remembered for a skit on SNL.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Since the Republicans are now accusing Obama of promoting socialism, if he is elected, clearly we should take this as a national mandate for socialism.



...but, by definition, Bush is the socialist President, and McCain supported Bush 90% of the time. I am so confused.

 

[phoenixy]

...but, by definition, Bush is the socialist President, and McCain supported Bush 90% of the time. I am so confused.

My advice is to run Fox in the background so you can practice and come to appreciate the beauty of Cognitive Dissonance. Once the channel channels voice of the lord through your body, mortal logic will no longer get in your way.


Related news, battleground of Indiana

Dozens Of Call Center Workers Walk Off Job In Protest Rather Than Read McCain Script Attacking Obama

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/dozens_of_call_center_workers.php

After another day filled with attacks, conviction, corruption, it feels nice toning to story like this. But then again these people clearly hate money. Fake Americans and definitely socialists I tell you.

 

[BobG]

So, does either candidate care about you personally during this last week of the campaign?

They care about me (I scored 82 on the swing voter guage). They'd care about me more if I went to a Protestant church (White, college educated Protestants from Colorado score 100 on the scale).

Of course, you can overdo that education thing. If you have a post-graduate degree, probably neither candidate will care much about you this last week.

If you're from Idaho, neither candidate even knows you exist.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

So, does either candidate care about you personally during this last week of the campaign?

They care about me (I scored 82 on the swing voter guage). They'd care about me more if I went to a Protestant church (White, college educated Protestants from Colorado score 100 on the scale).

Of course, you can overdo that education thing. If you have a post-graduate degree, probably neither candidate will care much about you this last week.

If you're from Idaho, neither candidate even knows you exist.

That's as compelling a reason to move to Idaho as I've ever heard. Too bad it's a fictional place.

 

[Evo]

Wow, I am a 96 on the swing voter guage. Of course that was selecting Catholic. I am Roman Catholic, but I don't attend Mass, although I still have my scapular so I will not suffer the eternal fires of Hell. Got to love Catholicism, you can buy your way into heaven at the local church store.

 

[LowlyPion]

That's as compelling a reason to move to Idaho as I've ever heard. Too bad it's a fictional place.

Careful. They are discovering people exist there now too.

It seems that the polls in Montana have indicated that Obama is within 4 points there. The Republicans will be airing ads there to shore up their support.

Montana a battleground state? Who would have thought?

 

[Gokul43201]

Into the final week - this is clearly Obama's race to lose. The numbers seem to be settling in the regime of a nearly 2:1 electoral outcome. Electoral Vote, which uses only the single latest poll numbers (and is hence susceptible to biggest fluctuations than the numbers generated from composites) for each state is showing MO, ND and MT in white (toss-up).

Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):

                     AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                 |     PROJECTIONS
                                                                 |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  Pollster | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P   
                                                                      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191            |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180            |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180            |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177            |  338/200    293/245
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188            |  306/232    293/245
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177            |  311/227    293/245
07/21   255/163  322/216  231/194  312/199    268/172   293/214  |  298/240    293/245
07/26   238/163  322/216  221/189  292/195    264/175   284/147  |  338/200    298/240
08/11   238/163  322/216  221/189  289/236    264/202   284/157  |  298/240    293/245
08/21   228/174  264/274  221/189  264/261    264/210   260/191  |  264/274    293/245
08/26   228/174  273/265  221/189  273/252    259/210   260/176  |  273/265    293/245
09/06   238/174  273/265  243/189  301/224    259/194   260/179  |  278/260    293/245                                                                           
09/16   207/227  286/252  233/189  247/257    216/246   243/219  |  273/265    273/265
09/26   228/163  286/252  240/200  286/252    264/185   229/174  |  273/265    273/265
10/01   249/163  348/190  250/189  286/190    264/185   250/174  |  273/265    273/265 
10/06   264/163  353/185  250/189  329/194    316/174   260/163  |  364/174    273/265 
10/11   277/158  353/185  264/174  343/184    329/158   320/158  |  364/174    273/265 
10/15   286/158  364/174  264/174  357/181    349/158   320/155  |  369/169    273/265
10/23   306/160  364/174  277/174  337/171    301/160   286/157  |  364/174    273/265
10/28   306/157  375/163  277/174  364/157    306/142   306/142  |  375/163    273/265

Market Update:

               INTRADE       IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKET

           Obama    McCain      Dem     Rep
Jun 26     $64.1    $32.4      0.622   0.378
Jul 11     $65.0    $31.2      0.643   0.358
Jul 26     $63.2    $32.2      0.688   0.355
Aug 11     $59.9    $37.2      0.621   0.377
Aug 21     $59.0    $38.7      0.607   0.394
Sep 01     $61.1    $39.2      0.602   0.395
Sep 11     $49.0    $49.9      0.540   0.462
Sep 21     $51.3    $47.7      0.601   0.392
Oct 01     $64.8    $34.6      0.651   0.322
Oct 11     $78.1    $21.9      0.840   0.160   
Oct 15     $80.1    $20.0      0.820   0.185
Oct 23     $85.4    $14.7      0.862   0.135
Oct 28     $87.6    $12.2      0.860   0.130

PS: I've given up any hope that USAtlas cares to update their projection. I will purge that column from subsequent poll updates.

 

[Gokul43201]

It seems that the polls in Montana have indicated that Obama is within 4 points there. The Republicans will be airing ads there to shore up their support.

Montana a battleground state? Who would have thought?

Anyone watching the polls closely over the last 6 months, perhaps!

Rasmussen has a poll out today that should have McCain's new staff rethinking some of the states they've been taking for granted. According to the poll, Obama leads McCain by 5 points in Montana. That's a state that Bush won by 20% and 25%. But it's also a state that Clinton won narrowly in '92 and lost in '96.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/montana/toplines_montana_presidential_election_july_1_2008

 

[LowlyPion]

McCain hires Obama supporters.

Republicans hire mercenaries for ground war against Barack Obama
Tom Baldwin in Des Moines, Iowa

Two women walk out of John McCain’s Mid-West headquarters carrying a pile of voter canvassing sheets, one sports a baseball hat declaring her a “team leader” of the Republican campaign. And both are black — an unusual sight in an election where Barack Obama’s support among African Americans is almost monolithic.

Are they volunteers? They look at each other sheepishly. “Not exactly,” replies one. “We work for an employment agency,” says the other. Who are they voting for? “I don’t want to say,” says the first woman. “Obama — of course!” whispers the braver of the pair.

They laugh, then look over their shoulders at the office behind them. “Don’t give him your name, he’ll put it in the paper,” says the cautious one, explaining that they cannot afford to lose their $10-an-hour (£6) jobs. “This is embarrassing. We’re doing this because we have to live. At least none of our friends can see us. We’re from Chicago — like Obama.”

Republicans have had to hire mercenaries for this ground war. And, if the experience outside the McCain headquarters was any guide, they may not all be shooting in the same direction.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article5019585.ece

 

[turbo]

There is a flier circulating in VA that claims that due to projected heavy voter turnout, Republicans will vote on Nov 4 and Democrats on Nov 5.

http://hamptonroads.com/2008/10/phony-flier-says-virginians-vote-different-days

 

[mgb_phys]

There is a flier circulating in VA that claims that due to projected heavy voter turnout, Republicans will vote on Nov 4 and Democrats on Nov 5.

And on current polls McCain would still lose!

 

[LowlyPion]

There is a flier circulating in VA that claims that due to projected heavy voter turnout, Republicans will vote on Nov 4 and Democrats on Nov 5.

http://hamptonroads.com/2008/10/phony-flier-says-virginians-vote-different-days

At this point that is just a joke. They pulled dirty trick 8 years ago at least that I remember.

 

[LowlyPion]

Lawsuit seeking release of McCain records on auto accident from 1964. The Navy is stonewalling apparently. Hmmmm. I wonder why they would do that so close to an election if there is nothing to hide? That's such a mavericky thing to be doing.

http://www.courthousenews.com/2008/10/20/McCainAccident.pdf

 

[BobG]

Lawsuit seeking release of McCain records on auto accident from 1964. The Navy is stonewalling apparently. Hmmmm. I wonder why they would do that so close to an election if there is nothing to hide? That's such a mavericky thing to be doing.

http://www.courthousenews.com/2008/10/20/McCainAccident.pdf

Why who would do what?

Why someone would think medical records from a 44-year-ago car accident could possibly be relevant to next week's election?

Or why the Navy won't release information covered by the personal privacy act (1974)?

Edit: FOIA Exemption 6 (and 7)

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I still have my scapular

Heh, I never had one. Good Catholics didn't need one.

 

[Astronuc]

"Exurbs" emerge as battleground in race
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081028/pl_nm/us_usa_politics_exurbs

HENDERSON, Nev./WASHINGTON (Reuters) – First came the foreclosure crisis. Next, gas prices went through the roof. Now, beleaguered Americans living on the edge of metropolitan areas face a third plague: politicians.

I can't wait until Wednesday morning next week. I just want it over already.


In the meantime - don't get weird.

 

[Astronuc]

Why McCain is getting hosed in the press?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081028/pl_politico/14982

Politico analyzes the question.

. . . .
Here goes anyway.

There have been moments in the general election when the one-sidedness of our site — when nearly every story was some variation on how poorly McCain was doing or how well Barack Obama was faring — has made us cringe.

As it happens, McCain’s campaign is going quite poorly and Obama’s is going well. Imposing artificial balance on this reality would be a bias of its own.

. . . .

 

[LowlyPion]

Why who would do what?

Why someone would think medical records from a 44-year-ago car accident could possibly be relevant to next week's election?

Or why the Navy won't release information covered by the personal privacy act (1974)?

Edit: FOIA Exemption 6 (and 7)

I think the question arose in reference to the circumstances of the accident itself and various accounts of it. I presume blood alcohol could be an interest to the inquiry.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Schism:

Republican fears of historic Obama landslide unleash civil war for the future of the party
Senior Republicans believe that John McCain is doomed to a landslide defeat which will hand Barack Obama more political power than any president in a generation.

... "There's going to be a bloodbath. A lot of people are going to be excommunicated. David Brooks and David Frum and Peggy Noonan are dead people in the Republican Party. The litmus test will be: where did you stand on Palin?"

There goes George Will, Chris Buckley, Colin Powell, and dozens of other prominent Republicans. Someone needs to tell the extremists that they are standing alone in quicksand.

Sarah Palin: The end of the road to nowhere.

 

[LowlyPion]

There goes George Will, Chris Buckley, Colin Powell, and dozens of other prominent Republicans. Someone needs to tell the extremists that they are standing alone in quicksand.

The moderate Republicans may find a more compatible home with Democrats. What the Far Right may ultimately discover is that while the country is centrist, the Far right alone is not a sufficient minority that can stand alone as an effective balance. Their co-opting of the Republican Party will have come at the price of the unintended consequence that now they may have the party, but no one else wants to really be a part.

Now what?

 

[turbo]

There goes George Will, Chris Buckley, Colin Powell, and dozens of other prominent Republicans. Someone needs to tell the extremists that they are standing alone in quicksand.

The Republicans have set up circular firing squads. McCain claimed that the RNC was behind the Palin wardrobe fiasco, and the RNC has claimed that the McCain campaign asked them to finance the wardrobe out of coordinated funds. McCain aides are taking pot-shots at Palin in "not for attribution" statements and Palin apparently has few handlers that she actually will listen to. Reportedly, resumes are flying, as RNC and McCain staffers try to re-align themselves and get some sort of job lined up post-election.

I do not want to see the GOP gutted, because the Democrats need somebody to balance them and moderate any excesses, but it appears that the Republican party will suffer severe damage from this campaign. Even though the Dems might not build the 60-vote Senate majority they want so badly, the Republicans might be fractured badly enough to prevent their party leadership from enforcing compliance on legislation that they oppose. Certainly, there must be some kind of shake-up between the true conservatives (so rare) left in the GOP and the neo-cons who have been calling the shots for the last couple of decades.

 

[mgb_phys]

It's beginning to look like a remake of the British version that's been running for the last 10years.
And like most US remakes it will have better looking actors, more impressive special effects but fewer jokes.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

...In the past week, aides to the Arizona senator have anonymously briefed reporters against Mrs Palin, describing the Alaska governor as a “diva”. Yesterday, however, a new and far harsher perjorative emerged: one called her a “whack job”, a term usually reserved for people who are dangerously unbalanced...

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article5032745.ece

 

[Evo]

This article mentions a McCain crowd of 5,000 (my work offices have 15,000 people at this site) a person changing a flat tire here could draw a crowd of 5,000. Obama has been pulling crowds of 100,000 (MO & CO each this last week). What is the largest crowd McCain has been able to pull since he got the Republican nod? (Republican Convention doesn't count)