Male Customers Preferring Non-Fiction: Proving Independence

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SUMMARY

The probability that a customer is male and prefers non-fiction is calculated as 20%, derived from the independence of the two events. Given that 40% of customers are male and 50% of male customers prefer non-fiction, the formula used is P(male AND non-fiction) = P(non-fiction | male) * P(male). The discussion emphasizes that independence cannot be conclusively proven without additional information, such as the preferences of female customers.

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Given the scenario that a bookstores customers is 40% male and 50% of male customers prefer non-fiction, what is the probability that a customer is male and prefers non-fiction.

So, since being male and preferring non-fiction are independent, we can multiply them and get 20%.

How can we prove that they are independent?
 
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tmt said:
Given the scenario that a bookstores customers is 40% male and 50% of male customers prefer non-fiction, what is the probability that a customer is male and prefers non-fiction.

So, since being male and preferring non-fiction are independent, we can multiply them and get 20%.

How can we prove that they are independent?

Hi tmt,

We can't. We do not have enough information.
They would be independent if we knew for instance that 50% of female customers preferred non-fiction, but that is not given.

Note that the 50% is a conditional probability - it's the probability a customer prefers non-fiction given that he is male.
So we're calculating:
$$P(\text{male AND non-fiction}) = P(\text{non-fiction} \mid \text{male}) \ P(\text{male})$$
 
Notice that what you are given is not "the probability a customer will choose non-fiction is 50%". What you are given is that "the probability a customer will choose non-fiction, given that the customer is male, is 50%". That is, taking M for "the customer is male" and N for "the customer chooses non-fiction", you are told that "P(N|M)= 0.50". And, whether M and N are independent or not P(M and N)= P(M)*P(N|M).
 
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