Math Game: Improve Ratio 9.66/10 by Guessing Better

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers around a mathematical game where players guess a number between 1 and 10, aiming to improve their winning ratio from 9.66 out of 10. The current strategy involves consistently selecting the same number, yielding a high success rate. Participants explore whether a more effective strategy exists, particularly against an opponent who adapts their number selection. The conversation highlights the challenge of maintaining a winning ratio against a clever adversary and seeks innovative guessing strategies to achieve a 90% win rate.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of probability and uniform distribution
  • Basic knowledge of game theory concepts
  • Familiarity with strategic decision-making
  • Experience with mathematical reasoning and analysis
NEXT STEPS
  • Research advanced probability strategies in game theory
  • Explore adaptive guessing techniques against opponents
  • Learn about mixed strategies in competitive games
  • Investigate the concept of Nash equilibrium in strategic interactions
USEFUL FOR

Mathematicians, game theorists, and anyone interested in strategic decision-making in competitive scenarios will benefit from this discussion.

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I have a small mathematical game. A random number with uniform distribution between 1 and 10 is drawn, the player must guess any number except the the one drawn.The method I have found is by selecting the same number for every draw, the player will win 9 times out of 10. My question is , is there a better method of playing,lets say the player wins 29 times out of 30, that is a ratio of 9.66 out of 10?
 
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Can you come up with a way of playing that is worse? Can you lose this game more than one time out of ten on average even if you try?

The problem could be made somewhat more interesting if the number were not randomly drawn but was instead selected by a fiendishly clever opponent who is trying to out-guess you. A strategy of selecting the same number every time would be defeated soundly by such an opponent. Is there a strategy that you could employ in order to win 90% of the time on average against any such opponent?
 
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