Minimum-variance bound for the extended maximum likelihood estimation

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on the application of extended maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) in fitting mass spectra using the equation pdf(M)=Ns×S(M)+Nb×B(M; a, b). Participants explore the phenomenon where the uncertainty for the number of signal events (Ns) in the fit result is reported to be smaller than the square root of Ns, raising questions about the validity of this outcome. The conversation highlights the need for clarification on whether event weights are applied, as this could explain the unexpected results regarding uncertainty bounds.

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xxww
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TL;DR
Is there is any limit for the variance of the estimated number in the extended maximum likelihood estimation, like the minimum-variances bound for the parameters in the maximum likelihood?
I am fitting a mass spectrum using pdf(M)=Ns×S(M)+Nb×B(M; a, b) to determine the yield with the extended maximum likelihood fit, where Ns and Nb are the number of signal and background events, S(M) is the function for the signal, B(M;a, b) is the function for the background with parameters a and b.
However, the uncertainty for the Ns in the fit result is smaller than sqrt(Ns). Is it possible to have the uncertainty smaller than that obtained from simple counting? Is there any expectation like the minimum-variance bound for the Ns?

Thanks in advance.
 
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xxww said:
However, the uncertainty for the Ns in the fit result is smaller than sqrt(Ns).
Are there any weights on the events? If not that's a strange result.
 
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