A Minimum-variance bound for the extended maximum likelihood estimation

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The discussion revolves around fitting a mass spectrum using an extended maximum likelihood estimation to determine yield, specifically analyzing the uncertainty in the number of signal events (Ns). It is noted that the uncertainty for Ns is observed to be smaller than the expected sqrt(Ns), raising questions about the validity of this result. Participants inquire whether such an outcome is possible without event weighting and discuss the implications of the minimum-variance bound in this context. The conversation highlights the need for clarification on the fitting process and the assumptions involved. Ultimately, the discussion seeks to understand the relationship between the fitting method and the statistical uncertainties in the results.
xxww
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Is there is any limit for the variance of the estimated number in the extended maximum likelihood estimation, like the minimum-variances bound for the parameters in the maximum likelihood?
I am fitting a mass spectrum using pdf(M)=Ns×S(M)+Nb×B(M; a, b) to determine the yield with the extended maximum likelihood fit, where Ns and Nb are the number of signal and background events, S(M) is the function for the signal, B(M;a, b) is the function for the background with parameters a and b.
However, the uncertainty for the Ns in the fit result is smaller than sqrt(Ns). Is it possible to have the uncertainty smaller than that obtained from simple counting? Is there any expectation like the minimum-variance bound for the Ns?

Thanks in advance.
 
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xxww said:
However, the uncertainty for the Ns in the fit result is smaller than sqrt(Ns).
Are there any weights on the events? If not that's a strange result.
 
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