Multiple choice test : random variable

Click For Summary

Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around a multiple choice test consisting of 10 questions, each with five possible answers, where participants explore the probability distribution of a random variable representing the number of correct answers when a candidate answers by chance. The conversation includes theoretical aspects of probability distributions and specific calculations related to the test scenario.

Discussion Character

  • Technical explanation
  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants propose defining a random variable $X$ to represent the number of correct answers out of 10 questions, with a probability of $\frac{1}{5}$ for a correct answer and $\frac{4}{5}$ for a wrong answer.
  • There is a discussion about the range of the random variable $X$, which is suggested to be $\{0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10\}$.
  • Some participants question whether they need to calculate the corresponding probabilities for each value of the random variable.
  • There is a suggestion that the situation can be modeled using a binomial distribution due to the nature of the test questions being independent Bernoulli trials.
  • Participants discuss the specific calculations for various probabilities, including the probability of answering exactly 4 questions correctly, more than 4, all questions correctly, at least half correctly, and between 5 and 8 correctly.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants generally agree on the definition of the random variable and its range, as well as the use of a binomial distribution. However, there is no consensus on whether to calculate the probabilities for each outcome or to simply identify the distribution and its parameters.

Contextual Notes

The discussion includes various assumptions about the independence of questions and the application of the binomial distribution, but these assumptions are not explicitly resolved or agreed upon by all participants.

mathmari
Gold Member
MHB
Messages
4,984
Reaction score
7
Hey! 😊

A multiple choice test consists of 10 questions. For every question there are five possible answers, of which exactly one is correct. A test candidate answers all questions by chance.
(a) Give a suitable random variable with value range and probability distribution in order to work on part (b) with it.
(b) Determine (with intermediate steps) the probability that
(i) exactly 4 questions were answered correctly,
(ii) more than 4 questions have been answered correctly,
(iii) all tasks have been answered correctly,
(iv) at least half of the questions were answered correctly,
(v) at least 5 and at most 8 questions have been answered correctly.For (a) :
Let $X$ be a random variable that describes the number of correct answers out of $10$, right?
For each correct answer the probability is equal to $\frac{1}{5}$ and each wrong answer has the probability $\frac{4}{5}$.

Is that correct so far? :unsure:
 
Physics news on Phys.org
mathmari said:
For (a) :
Let $X$ be a random variable that describes the number of correct answers out of $10$, right?
For each correct answer the probability is equal to $\frac{1}{5}$ and each wrong answer has the probability $\frac{4}{5}$.
Hey mathmari!

Yep. (Nod)

We still need to identify the probability distribution function for (a) though. 🤔
 
Klaas van Aarsen said:
Yep. (Nod)

So is the range of the random variable $\{0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10\}$ ? :unsure:
Klaas van Aarsen said:
We still need to identify the probability distribution function for (a) though. 🤔

Do we have to calculate for each value of the random variable the corresponding probability? :unsure:
 
mathmari said:
So is the range of the random variable $\{0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10\}$ ?

Yep. (Nod)
mathmari said:
Do we have to calculate for each value of the random variable the corresponding probability?

It think we should just identify the name of the probability distribution and its parameters. 🤔
If we want to, we can also calculate the corresponding probabilities of the possible outcomes.
 
Klaas van Aarsen said:
It think we should just identify the name of the probability distribution and its parameters. 🤔

What do you mean by the name of probability distribution an its parameters? Is it $P(X=k)$ with $k\in\{0, 1, 2, \ldots , 10\}$? :unsure:
Klaas van Aarsen said:
If we want to, we can also calculate the corresponding probabilities of the possible outcomes.

This is then part (b), or not? :unsure:
 
mathmari said:
What do you mean by the name of probability distribution an its parameters? Is it $P(X=k)$ with $k\in\{0, 1, 2, \ldots , 10\}$?

You wrote:
mathmari said:
For each correct answer the probability is equal to $\frac{1}{5}$ and each wrong answer has the probability $\frac{4}{5}$.
This describes a Bernoulli distribution with parameter $p=\frac 15$, which is for an experiment with a single yes-no question.
However, we don't have a single yes-no question, but we have 10 questions.
We are looking for a distribution for the number of successes in a sequence of $n$ independent experiments, each asking a yes–no question, and each with its own Boolean-valued outcome: success (with probability $p$) or failure (with probability $q = 1 − p$). (Sweating)

mathmari said:
This is then part (b), or not?
More or less. We can use a table with the probabilities of each possible outcome to help us answer each of the questions in (b).
But we can also find the answers for (b) in a different fashion. 🤔
 
Klaas van Aarsen said:
This describes a Bernoulli distribution with parameter $p=\frac 15$, which is for an experiment with a single yes-no question.
However, we don't have a single yes-no question, but we have 10 questions.
We are looking for a distribution for the number of successes in a sequence of $n$ independent experiments, each asking a yes–no question, and each with its own Boolean-valued outcome: success (with probability $p$) or failure (with probability $q = 1 − p$). (Sweating)

So do we have a binomial distribution? :unsure:
Klaas van Aarsen said:
More or less. We can use a table with the probabilities of each possible outcome to help us answer each of the questions in (b).
But we can also find the answers for (b) in a different fashion. 🤔

Do we have the following ?

(i) $p_X(4)=P(X=4)=\binom{10}{4}p^4(1-p)^{10-4}=\binom{10}{4}\left (\frac{1}{5}\right )^4\left (\frac{4}{5}\right )^{6}$
(ii) $P(X>4)=1-P(X\leq 4)=1-\sum_{i=0}^4P(X=i)=1-\sum_{i=0}^4\binom{10}{i}p^i(1-p)^{10-i}=1-\sum_{i=0}^4\binom{10}{i}\left (\frac{1}{5}\right )^i\left (\frac{4}{5}\right )^{10-i}$
(iii) $p_X(10)=P(X=10)=\binom{10}{10}p^{10}(1-p)^{10-10}=\left (\frac{1}{5}\right )^{10}$
(iv) $P(X\geq 5)=P(X>4)=1-\sum_{i=0}^4\binom{10}{i}\left (\frac{1}{5}\right )^i\left (\frac{4}{5}\right )^{10-i}$
(v) $P(5\leq X\leq 8)=P(X\leq 8)-P(X<5)=P(X\leq 8)-P(X\leq 4)=[1-P(X> 8)]-[1-P(X> 4)]=[1-P(X=9)-P(X=10)]-\left [1-1+\sum_{i=0}^4\binom{10}{i}\left (\frac{1}{5}\right )^i\left (\frac{4}{5}\right )^{10-i}\right ]=[1-\binom{10}{9}\left (\frac{1}{5}\right )^9\left (\frac{4}{5}\right )^{10-9}-\left (\frac{1}{5}\right )^{10}]-\left [1-1+\sum_{i=0}^4\binom{10}{i}\left (\frac{1}{5}\right )^i\left (\frac{4}{5}\right )^{10-i}\right ]$

:unsure:
 
Yep. All correct. (Sun)
 

Similar threads

  • · Replies 30 ·
2
Replies
30
Views
4K
  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
2K
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
2K
  • · Replies 6 ·
Replies
6
Views
5K
  • · Replies 10 ·
Replies
10
Views
2K
  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
2K
  • · Replies 3 ·
Replies
3
Views
3K
  • · Replies 5 ·
Replies
5
Views
2K
Replies
1
Views
2K
  • · Replies 3 ·
Replies
3
Views
3K