Mystery Missile Launch in California

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around a reported missile launch off the coast of southern California, with participants exploring various theories regarding the nature of the object seen in a video. The scope includes speculation about military activity, aviation phenomena, and the potential for amateur rocketry, as well as the implications for national security.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants suggest that the object may be an unusually distinct contrail from an aircraft, with one national security expert supporting this view.
  • Others question the lack of radar tracking for the object, proposing that if it were an aircraft, it should have been detectable.
  • There are claims that the object resembles a missile launch, with one participant noting the characteristics of contrails from previous launches.
  • Some participants humorously speculate about the possibility of a hobbyist's science project or an unapproved test launch.
  • Concerns are raised about the implications of an unidentified object potentially being a missile from an adversarial nation.
  • Several participants express skepticism about the media's portrayal of the event, suggesting it may be sensationalized.
  • One participant emphasizes their extensive experience with contrails, arguing that the object is likely a jet contrail illuminated by sunset.
  • Another participant points out that the discussion includes a mix of serious analysis and light-hearted commentary, including references to popular culture.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus on the nature of the object. Multiple competing views remain, with some advocating for the jet contrail theory while others maintain that it could be a missile or an amateur rocket.

Contextual Notes

There are unresolved assumptions regarding the visibility and tracking of the object, as well as the definitions of contrails versus missile launches. The discussion reflects a variety of interpretations based on personal experiences and expertise.

Who May Find This Useful

Individuals interested in aviation phenomena, national security, amateur rocketry, and media analysis may find this discussion relevant.

Ivan Seeking
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The Pentagon says it's trying to figure out whether a missile was launched off the coast of southern California and who might have launched it.

Officials with the navy, air force, Defence Department and North American Aerospace Defence Command say they are looking into a video posted on the website of Southern California television station KFMB.

The video appears to show a rocket or some other object shooting up into the sky and leaving a large contrail over the Pacific Ocean...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/americas/pentagon-stumped-by-apparent-missile-launch-off-us-coast/article1791785/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CeXNC8k9FKU
 
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OK, who shot off their latest science project?
 
Where did it land? Did it land?
 
At least one national security expert thinks its just an unusually distinct contrail from an aircraft. If it was approaching the camera from the horizon, it would appear to be rising.
 
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Tsu asked a pretty obvious question that I've heard no one address yet: Didn't someone track this thing on RADAR?

Likewise, if it was just an aircraft, it should be possible to correlate the sighting with aircraft RADAR data.
 
Maybe it was someone blowing off his top in a delayed reaction to last week's election.
 
lol @Topher925 I laugher at your comment. Nice one.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysTDh6R9N8E

They say previous launch was for Skynet(1:08). And you still wonder who launched it. Never watched "Terminator"?

:devil::-p
 
  • #10
I admit when I first heard the "jet contrail" theory, I thought there was no way that could be a contrail. I've got to admit it's becoming by far the most plausible theory, to me. And the other options are way crazier, I think.

It also explains why Air Traffic Control and NORAD didn't see anything out of the ordinary. All they would see at the time would be a perfectly normal airplane.

Rather than go over all the points, here's an article that explains it: http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-los-angeles/missile-launch-over-southern-california-explained

You know, the "funny" thing is that, if it really is a jet contrail, many, many people won't believe it and will assume a conspiracy. I mean, let's face it, it really does look like a missile at first glance. Even that red "glow" that's likely just the sun looked rather like exhaust plasma to me. Mark my words, this one will not die off quickly! LOL
 
  • #11
"camwyatt What's more chilling...? That they don't know what this was (or) that it has taken over 18 hours to tell us they don't know yet. Not feeling my defense shield right now."
4 hours ago
CNN comments
http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/11/09/california.contrails/index.html?hpt=C1
My emotion thingies are not working and I can not get that laughing guy! :cry:
 
  • #12
I've seen at least a dozen launches and that looks like a launch to me. Here's a Titan for example:

You can see the contrail stays together which is typical. Also, it seems to go up very slowly because the camera is so far away. Note the contrail isn't straight up, it bends over about a minute into a launch, which is typical.

If the thing is a missile though, then assuming the picture was taken from near LA and the launch begins where it says it does, it seems to be going north or north west because it's going to the right in the film. Could even be going due west, but if it's going north at all, it may end up over land, which would rule out any kind of government launch. Even some secret government agency wouldn't launch a missile such that it travels over a populated area.
 
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  • #13
cshum00 said:
lol @Topher925 I laugher at your comment. Nice one.

That comment was meant to be a joke but I seriously do think this was just someone's science/hobby project. People are getting very smart these days. There are a lot of hobbyists that like to build and fly their own UAVs, high altitude balloons, and yes, even make their own rockets and missiles. I think this was probably just an unapproved AMA test launch by a couple of hobby level rocket scientists.
 
  • #14
I wonder if the helicopter attempted to follow the trail back to the lauch site, or did they just follow it up into the sky, then go on to cover traffic.
 
  • #15
Upisoft said:
They say previous launch was for Skynet(1:08). And you still wonder who launched it. Never watched "Terminator"?

:devil::-p

no chance it could be an asian nation showing us what they can do?
 
  • #16
Astronuc said:
I wonder if the helicopter attempted to follow the trail back to the lauch site, or did they just follow it up into the sky, then go on to cover traffic.

That should be part of the job description. "If you see a mysterious plume of smoke, go hover above where it originated". :biggrin:
 
  • #17
Proton Soup said:
no chance it could be an asian nation showing us what they can do?

To the best of my knowledge, there are no Asian nations in Southern California. :biggrin:
 
  • #18
Ivan Seeking said:
To the best of my knowledge, there are no Asian nations in Southern California. :biggrin:

yeah, but they do have submarines
 
  • #19
Ivan Seeking said:
To the best of my knowledge, there are no Asian nations in Southern California. :biggrin:

:smile:
 
  • #20
Proton Soup said:
yeah, but they do have submarines

Ah, good point. :smile:

Trivia: Did you know that the Japanese once shelled Santa Barbara?
 
  • #21
Ivan Seeking said:
Ah, good point. :smile:

Trivia: Did you know that the Japanese once shelled Santa Barbara?

DAMN! That's a long way from Pearl Harbor.
 
  • #22
If you're not yet convinced it could be a jet contrail, check this page out:

http://uncinus.wordpress.com/2010/11/09/4/

Perhaps it could really be a missile. But really, after reading that page, what do you think is really most likely?

Quite the convincing optical illusion though! But if I had any money, I'd bet it on the jet contrail theory.
 
  • #23
SUNSET CONTRAIL in California

Ivan Seeking said:
At least one national security expert thinks its just an unusually distinct contrail from an aircraft.

This is an appeal to authority. A former secretary of defense is primarily in management, not science and technology, even though they may have previously had a background in the latter.

Having flown for the U.S. Air Force for several thousand hours, I've seen contrails exactly like this dozens of times, similar ones hundreds of times. I've seen many contrails, thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of times.

This is a contrail, illuminated after sunset such that it appears reddish orange, caused by a high-altitude jetliner flying towards, and slightly to the right of the camera from over the horizon.

Calling it a "missile" launch is poor journalism at best, and over-sensationalistic at worst.

Grep said:
If you're not yet convinced it could be a jet contrail, check this page out:

http://uncinus.wordpress.com/2010/11/09/4/

...

Quite the convincing optical illusion though! But if I had any money, I'd bet it on the jet contrail theory.

As would I. Great link, Grep! The nearly identical picture really brings this issue home. Now if we could just get the media to visit PF once in a while, it might help keep them from flying off the deep end.
 
  • #24


mugaliens said:
This is an appeal to authority. A former secretary of defense is primarily in management, not science and technology, even though they may have previously had a background in the latter.

I didn't say he was the Secretary of Defense, and it wasn't an appeal to authority [learn your definitions and read what I post before throwing around accusations]. In fact, you have no idea who he was, and I was just repeating the statement made - one that you agree with in the next paragraph.
 
  • #25


Ivan Seeking said:
I didn't say he was the Secretary of Defense

The only "national security expert" that's I've seen in the news over this was http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysTDh6R9N8E&feature=player_embedded#!".

...it wasn't an appeal to authority...

It most certainly was, particularly if you declined to name the individual.

Which brings up the next obvious question: "Just who is your 'national security expert'?"

Regardless, http://uncinus.wordpress.com/2010/11/09/4/" .
 
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  • #26
Having flown for the U.S. Air Force for several thousand hours, I've seen contrails exactly like this dozens of times, similar ones hundreds of times. I've seen many contrails, thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of times.

This is a contrail, illuminated after sunset such that it appears reddish orange, caused by a high-altitude jetliner flying towards, and slightly to the right of the camera from over the horizon.

Calling it a "missile" launch is poor journalism at best, and over-sensationalistic at worst.
Why is this one getting so much attention? Shouldn't this be a common sight if it's what you say it is?
 
  • #27
Lacy33 said:
DAMN! That's a long way from Pearl Harbor.


It was his first day on the job, and one island looks pretty much like any other, and the pacific ocean is really big.
 
  • #28
Lacy33 said:
DAMN! That's a long way from Pearl Harbor.


They also shelled Fort Stevens (one of the gun implacements guarding the mouth of the Columbia river), sank two ships off the Oregon coast and dropped incendiary bombs in Southern Oregon (in an attempt to start forest fires).
 
  • #29
Janus said:
They also shelled Fort Stevens (one of the gun implacements guarding the mouth of the Columbia river), sank two ships off the Oregon coast and dropped incendiary bombs in Southern Oregon (in an attempt to start forest fires).

I knew about the incendiary bombs, and I knew a Japanese sub was once sighted in the Columbia, but I had never heard about the ships or Fort Stevens. Wow!
 
  • #30
It could be a contrail, but I have never seen one that wasn't split at its source. What was seen on radar?
 

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