Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[phinds]

No I don't. We will just have to hope that he's not an entirely one man show in Russia!

That I can agree with although I think it's a bit optimistic.

 

[Vanadium 50]

But let's also be real here, post-WW2, the US has repeatedly managed to convince its people to start and engage in a huge number of dubious war

Please back that up.

Roughly 10 million people have died in wars post 1946 (vs. 85 million in WW2). Major wars were the partition of India, the Bangladesh Indepedence wars, the Soviet-Afghan war, the Second Congo War, the Second Sudanese Civil War, the Ethiopian Civil War, the Nigerian Civil War,

It's easy to blame the US. But the bloodiest conflicts tend not to have US involvement, andto be in parts of the world nobody cares about. One might even argue that post-war decolonization was the major cause of war deaths post-WW2.

 

[phinds]

parts of the world nobody cares about

Ooohh ... harsh.

I'll bet the people in those regions would not agree w/ you.

 

[strangerep]

Instead, I believe that there is a darkness that lurks in just about every one of us and even worse, that it doesn't take a whole lot to bring it out.

+1 (alas).

 

[Vanadium 50]

I'll bet the people in those regions would not agree w/ you.

I bet they wouldn't. I made the same point about malaria vs. Covid in another thread. Important people get covid, so it's a worldwide crisis. Malaria, not so much.

 

[artis]

Nah, I don't buy that.

I'm not sure what exactly you refuse to buy? You basically argued against something which I did not say.
My claim was not that the Russian army became like this recently. It has always been like that and somewhat for the very reason you dismissed - which is the low education and harsh backgrounds of many of it's conscripts.

To use your own phrases , no not even "country bumpkins" are the same everywhere, yes people do have a capability towards violence but the background in which they grow up matters alot.
I had a friend who grew up in an orphanage , he said himself that he was probably the only guy in his "class" in the orphanage who doesn't commit violence on a daily basis. He even got raped by his very "friends" while in the orphanage.
And yet this is not how I remember my childhood while growing up in a family , nor were my friends violent thugs nor did we rape each other.

So once more I'm not sure what you find so hard to buy in what I said.
The fact that the Soviet army wasn't much better during WW2 is exactly for the very reasons I said.
And then again it wasn't the whole army, there were soldiers who had good conscience who did not partake in those lusts.
I know a dozen people who had served in the Red army whom I have talked stuff like this over I could tell you even the specific nationalities and ethnicities that were among the most violent within that army, but I won't do it here because it will easily be labeled racism and stir up some negative feedback.In fact one of your provided links actually hints at one of the reasons I would have explained

Asian societies comprising the Soviet Union believed that dishonor was avenged by raping the women of the enemy.

Germans had their fair share of atrocities too, but they were less brutal , more polite and had higher manners even during war (on average), as my now gone relatives told me when I was a kid from their personal experience, and there is a good explanation for that, again background. Germany had a much higher standard of living and culture and everything else pre WW2 than Russia.

Recall few years ago immigrants from the middle east raped women in Germany during New Year's eve, there wasn't even a war happening, again background. Anyone who knows about the average background that people grow up in various middle eastern countries would understand.
But the point is this, background matters alot. People have very different approach to life in the far east and many of the "stans" countries than in the west.

PS. I have seen the Stanford prison experiment, yes good movie.

 

[artis]

Here is a good read for those with enough time.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/ukraine-war-marines-front-lines-1334770/

 

[artis]

Boris Johnson visits Kyiv and Zelensky,



A nice speech by Boris, let's hope it materializes , especially the military aid part

 

[neilparker62]

Boris Johnson visits Kyiv and Zelensky,

A nice speech by Boris, let's hope it materializes , especially the military aid part

A more measured speech certainly - he did not repeat his "Brexit bloomer".

 

[artis]

And there's that Russian convoy again, this time in a different place and shorter,
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/worl...ne-satellite-images-phil-black-ndwknd-vpx.cnn

 

[Astronuc]

Ukraine expects a major offensive in the Donbas, with attacks by aircraft, rockets/missiles, and artillery.

A spokesperson for Hungary's Prime Minister told CNN the country will not supply weapons to support Ukraine in the conflict with Russia.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-new...s-04-08-22/h_be9b7a46758a16d9a4c1a2b7eab53b9b

Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed a new general to direct the war in Ukraine as his military shifts plans after a failure to take Kyiv, according to a US official and a European official.

The officials told CNN Army Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, commander of Russia’s Southern Military District, has been named theater commander of Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine

A new theater commander with extensive combat experience could bring a level of coordination to an assault now expected to focus on the Donbas region, instead of multiple fronts.

Dvornikov, 60, was the first commander of Russia’s military operations in Syria, after Putin sent troops there in September 2015 to back the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. During Dvornikov’s command in Syria from September 2015 to June 2016, Russian aircraft backed the Assad regime and its allies as they laid siege to rebel-held eastern Aleppo, bombarding densely populated neighborhoods and causing major civilian casualties.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-new...s-04-09-22/h_ff5483c56912605145a6806accf7b402

 

[Astronuc]

Ezra Klein - A conversation with Fiona Hill, former senior director for European and Russian affairs at the National Security Council, on whether Ukraine can win.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/08/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-fiona-hill.html

A good analysis of the situation and long term consequences/outcome. Consider that Ukrainian farmers produce about 20% of the worlds wheat (mentioned earlier in this thread), and they are not planting right now, which is the beginning of planting season. Many may not plant this year. Russian attacks and landmines prevent many farmers/civilians from getting their farming and support work done. Furthermore, Russia is attacking the transportation infrastructure and ports. Odessa is a principal port for shipping grain to the global market, and it is a priority target. If Putin can't take/control it, he'll destroy it. It will undermine Ukrainian foreign trade and hurt the global market. Russia can charge other countries that need its grain in Rubles, and at inflated prices.

There are long term prospects of food shortages and famine in some parts of the world and higher commodity prices.

Russia also supplies a lot of fertilizer to the global markets. Again, the cost will increase.

Russia is the world's largest exporter of fertilizers, accounting for 23% of ammonia exports, 14% of urea exports, 10% of processed phosphate exports, and 21% of potash exports, according to data from The Fertilizer Institute.

https://www.tfi.org/content/statement-russia-ukraine-conflict

https://www.reuters.com/business/sa...ortage-imperils-world-food-supply-2022-03-23/

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2...-fertilizer-exports-to-brazil-and-the-us.html

The Russian aggression against Ukraine must be stopped!

 

[artis]

Admittedly I'm not the biggest CNN fan but so far they have been covering this war really well, even the historical aspect of it. This video is very good, especially the second part, even attention to small details like the prison cell food door opens up before Jake Tapper begins to speak inside the cell, nicely done.
PS. That prison you saw , a similar one was within the basement of every KGB building, back in Stalin's time it was under the NKVD, they held political prisoners as well as other NKVD arrested people in those basements, the local one where I have been after it ceased to be a police building had a furnace in the basement. I asked why the furnace? Since the building already had central heating from the city.
The answer was simple, they used the furnace to rise the temperature in the cells to about 104 and up Fahrenheit. It was like a constant sauna in there, no fresh air no daylight , pure heat and noise, sleep was next to impossible, they did not even have to beat them up most were willing to confess to anything after few days.

Since the building was in city center , when they carried out executions in the basement they had a special room with noise dampening materials on the walls and open street like sewer system in the floor in order to drain the blood. When shots were carried out, large gasoline engines were started in the backyard and revved to dampen and kill any unwanted noise escaping the basement.

Before the horrors of NKVD and KGB the building was originally built as a rent house with apartments in it back in 1911. This is in Riga, Latvia.

Now it looks like this

It had a nickname "the corner house" due to it's location. A nickname few dared to say out loud as it brought chills down ones spine.
You can see some pictures from the inside in this link
https://www.la.lv/stura-maja-nekadas-akstisanas
It is now a museum and from time to time hosts the performance art of various art students.
One art exposition that happened in 2015 looked like this, a symbolized Putin crucified with countless nails to a red cross.

Kremlin asked our government to take away this exposition , apparently the "dictator" wasn't happy of our bravery of showing him the way by which many of us would like him to die...

 

[Isopod]

I'm not sure what exactly you refuse to buy? You basically argued against something which I did not say.
My claim was not that the Russian army became like this recently. It has always been like that and somewhat for the very reason you dismissed - which is the low education and harsh backgrounds of many of it's conscripts.

To use your own phrases , no not even "country bumpkins" are the same everywhere, yes people do have a capability towards violence but the background in which they grow up matters alot.
I had a friend who grew up in an orphanage , he said himself that he was probably the only guy in his "class" in the orphanage who doesn't commit violence on a daily basis. He even got raped by his very "friends" while in the orphanage.
And yet this is not how I remember my childhood while growing up in a family , nor were my friends violent thugs nor did we rape each other.

So once more I'm not sure what you find so hard to buy in what I said.
The fact that the Soviet army wasn't much better during WW2 is exactly for the very reasons I said.
And then again it wasn't the whole army, there were soldiers who had good conscience who did not partake in those lusts.
I know a dozen people who had served in the Red army whom I have talked stuff like this over I could tell you even the specific nationalities and ethnicities that were among the most violent within that army, but I won't do it here because it will easily be labeled racism and stir up some negative feedback.In fact one of your provided links actually hints at one of the reasons I would have explained


Germans had their fair share of atrocities too, but they were less brutal , more polite and had higher manners even during war (on average), as my now gone relatives told me when I was a kid from their personal experience, and there is a good explanation for that, again background. Germany had a much higher standard of living and culture and everything else pre WW2 than Russia.

Recall few years ago immigrants from the middle east raped women in Germany during New Year's eve, there wasn't even a war happening, again background. Anyone who knows about the average background that people grow up in various middle eastern countries would understand.
But the point is this, background matters alot. People have very different approach to life in the far east and many of the "stans" countries than in the west.

PS. I have seen the Stanford prison experiment, yes good movie.

1. I don't buy the premise that the people committing the rape & torture etc in the Russian army are all solely (or mainly) recruits from incredibly distant & backwards parts of Russia (that basically, Russians who come from the cities etc are quite frankly too civilized to behave like this).

2. I don't really get the relevance of your orphanage story.

3. My argument is that military/wartime environments can bring out the worst in anyone (regardless of their prior background) and that a darkness in the human spirit dwells in most people (and that it doesn't take as much as you'd think to bring this out).

4. If you are familar with the Stanford Prison Experiment, then you can surely appreciate how anyone's behaviour can change under the right conditions (regardless of their background).

5. "Germans had their fair share of atrocities too, but they were less brutal , more polite and had higher manners even during war (on average), as my now gone relatives told me when I was a kid from their personal experience, and there is a good explanation for that, again background. Germany had a much higher standard of living and culture and everything else pre WW2 than Russia."

Sorry, but this is hilarious. My grandfather spent years in POW camps during WW2 and he have hugely disagreed with you that the Germans were "less brutal , more polite and had higher manners even during war". Do you realize who you are talking about here? U'know, the ones who committed massive crimes against humanity and war crimes, who tortured & killed endless people in the concentration camps?
My grandfather 1st hand experienced and witnessed war crimes being committed in those camps and I 100% believe him when he told me the Nazi guards were absolutely savage towards the POWs (I've heard his stories).

I'm sorry, but I can't take anyone seriously who says that the Germans were a better type of person during war because of their creed, because it ignores insanely huge bodies of both real world evidence, stuff like the Nuremburg Trials, millions of eye witness statements and so much more. Although I have some German blood in my ancestry, even I would never argue nor believe that the Germans are somehow a better breed of people or behaved better than others in war because of their background/heritage.

When you go on about your life VS the orphans or stuff like Germans & central Russians being people of too good a background people to commit rape & torture etc upon others during times of war, you don't come across to me as someone who is worldly, but someone who has led an incredibly sheltered existence (and who may even hold a certain arrogance about themself, believing themself to be an innately better variety of person than others because of their own background/breeding).

(IMHO) pretty much all & any people's are capable of great cruelty regardless of their backgrounds.

Edit: Thinking like yours disturbs me as its exactly thinking like this which evidences the historical whitewashing and denial that is becoming increasingly apparent amongst people today regarding past events like WW2. It is also thinking like yours that often leads to many of the worst episodes of history not only being repeated, but people also failing to adequately address or combat them as they occur in real-time.

 

[Isopod]

Please back that up.

Roughly 10 million people have died in wars post 1946 (vs. 85 million in WW2). Major wars were the partition of India, the Bangladesh Indepedence wars, the Soviet-Afghan war, the Second Congo War, the Second Sudanese Civil War, the Ethiopian Civil War, the Nigerian Civil War,

It's easy to blame the US. But the bloodiest conflicts tend not to have US involvement, andto be in parts of the world nobody cares about. One might even argue that post-war decolonization was the major cause of war deaths post-WW2.

For example:

1. The US rationale for the war in Iraq has faced heavy criticism both inside & outside of America stretching back to pretty much since it began.
2. Many people also argue that the war in Afghanistan was a mistake.
3. The US involvement in taking down Gaddafi and its role in Libya/Syria.

"The Legacy of Obama’s ‘Worst Mistake’" https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/04/obamas-worst-mistake-libya/478461/

Pretty much everyone I know feels that these wars were a mistake and that all ended up being **** shows. So widespread were the feelings about Iraq in particular, that "no more Iraqs" was one of the big reasons why Obama was voted in, and the pulling out of troops in the Middle Eastern wars was a huge reason why Trump garnered a lot of support in his campaign (so we can't pretend that its new/novel/fringe opinion that wars like the one in Iraq were a mistake & highly controversial).

Of course you're free to disagree and argue that these wars were absolutely necessary (etc), but vast volumes of people (including endless ex-forces personel who fought in these wars) would beg to differ.

I feel that WW1 & WW2 were absolute necessary wars to fight because there is no doubt that Hitler was evil & bent on invasion. But most of the wars fought since then? A lot more debatable.

The war in Ukraine though? It should be obvious to anyone that Putin is evil and bent on invasion (I also do not believe that his intentions will stop at Ukraine). Ukraine is the most "moral" war that we've engaged in since WW2 but ironically, its also turned out to be the war that we've most held back from actually directly fighting in because now we're up against someone who really does have WMD's and the power to properly fight us back.

 

[Isopod]

"Ukraine to go on offensive after mass graves found with more than 1,200 bodies"​

https://metro.co.uk/2022/04/11/ukra...an-1200-bodies-found-in-mass-graves-16442381/

"Russian soldier arrested ‘for raping baby’ in Ukraine"​

https://metro.co.uk/2022/04/10/russian-soldier-arrested-for-raping-baby-in-ukraine-16439692/

 

[Isopod]

Ukraine: Three ways this war could escalate and drag Nato in​

"The bigger strategic question," says one of Britain's most experienced military officers who asks not to be named, "is whether our government is engaged in crisis management or actual strategy." That would require thinking this through to the finish, he adds.

"What we are trying to achieve here is to give Ukraine every bit of help we can, short of World War Three. The problem is, Putin is a better poker player than we are."
Tobias Ellwood MP agrees.

"Russia does this [the threat of escalation] very effectively. And we are spooked. We have lost the ability to control the escalatory ladder."

Full article: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61051307Yeah, I would have to agree [with these sentiments].

 

[ISamson]

This all just shows how history tends to repeat itself. Lessons, as much as mistakes, are forgotten in just 2 generations, 80 years, and all the vices and evils come flooding back. Russians says that it is time to remind the West and Europe of what happens when red lines are crossed and refresh humanity's collective memory.

 

[pinball1970]

This all just shows how history tends to repeat itself. Lessons, as much as mistakes, are forgotten in just 2 generations, 80 years, and all the vices and evils come flooding back. Russians says that it is time to remind the West and Europe of what happens when red lines are crossed.

Yes, there is no point in discussing who was more barbaric than who.

We are capable of barbarism.

The build up of troops has been highlighted in the east. I hope the UK has hurried enough supplies to Ukraine in time for this next stage.

 

[Isopod]

This all just shows how history tends to repeat itself. Lessons, as much as mistakes, are forgotten in just 2 generations, 80 years, and all the vices and evils come flooding back. Russians says that it is time to remind the West and Europe of what happens when red lines are crossed.

Yeah, I agree. The fact that even in this thread (on a forum full of supposedly smart people) there are people doubting the eye witness accounts of Ukrainians and spouting stuff like the Germans were a better kind of person in war in WW2 because they were from civilised backgrounds, is also disturbing.

We have learned nothing.

"Who would guarantee Ukraine's security? | Inside Story"​

Zelensky regrets Ukraine giving away its nuclear weapons (and he is damn right when he says that it weakened the country).

The main message that the conflict in Ukraine is sending out to literally just about every developing country in the world right now is "GET NUCLEAR WEAPONS NO MATTER WHAT, ASAP!".

N.Korea & Iran have terrible dictators and human rights records, but you don't see the US invading them! Why? Because they have nukes.

Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, etc? They all got invaded because they don't have nuclear weapons.

The West likes to talk a big moral game, but the truth of the matter is that whatever reasons we use to justify invading some people's, we never pick on anyone who really has the means to take the war/fighting back to our own home turfs.

Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons on the promise that it would be protected by the Western world. If they'd known back then that this promise of protection only extended to either option 1 of "We'll send troops etc if the person attacking you is considerably weaker than us" or option 2 of "We'll only do sanctions and send stuff if the person attacking you could be a real threat to us", then I don't think they would have ever given up their nuclear arsenal.

If the Western world ever had any persuading power in the past to encourage countries to give up their nuclear weapons (or not develop them in the 1st place), then how things have played out in Ukraine, have pretty much evaporated that persuading power.

Countries with nukes don't get invaded, nuke-free countries do.

 

[Klystron]

...
We have learned nothing.
...

So true, to our regret.

N.Korea & Iran have terrible dictators and human rights records, but you don't see the US invading them! Why? Because they have nukes.

Perhaps because the former country lacks easily stolen resources coveted by the ruling party.

Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, etc? They all got invaded because they don't have nuclear weapons.

The former and latter countries contain massive petroleum reserves.

...
Countries with nukes don't get invaded, nuke-free countries do.

Arguably large swaths of the EU have been 'invaded by ravenous hordes of refugees' likely seeking improved living standards more than security under a nuclear umbrella.

 

[Isopod]

I read this article earlier today on "Putin's mysterious Facebook 'superfans' on a mission". I've previously mentioned in this thread stuff about Russian bot accounts, I thought that it was an interesting article for anyone curious about the subject: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-61012398

I've personally noticed that when it comes to YouTube news channels, some in particular seem to be absolutely flooded with Russian bot accounts spreading anti-Ukrainian sentiments (for example Al Jazeera & Sky News always seem to have a lot).

You can report bot accounts for spreading misinformation (Youtube also actually seems to be responding to the reports, removing the bot accounts).

"How to Identify a Russian Bot on Twitter":

https://socialmediahq.com/how-to-identify-a-russian-bot-on-twitter/

https://www.motherjones.com/media/2018/08/how-to-identify-russian-bots-twitter/

 

[berkeman]

Thread closed for Moderation...

 

[berkeman]

Update -- After a Mentor discussion, the thread will remain closed. We tried our best to keep it open (and reopen it after many edits), but this topic is too orthogonal to the PF mission to be able to deal with.

Unfortunately there are still some visible posts (especially near the end of this thread closure) that are infraction worthy and deletion worthy, but honestly, we are not able to invest any more effort in trying to manage the thread and keep it open. Let us all hope that the conflict can be resolved without too much more loss of innocent life, and the world recovers from this episode with this insane person who has nuclear weapons that he can use when his visions tell him it's a good idea.

Have a nice day.