Dismiss Notice
Join Physics Forums Today!
The friendliest, high quality science and math community on the planet! Everyone who loves science is here!

B New star in the skies -- Plausible?

  1. Jan 7, 2017 #1
    • ◼ Two threads have been merged into one ◻
    This new star which supposedly formed 1800 years ago and which will become visible to us in 2022 is not shown in Stellarium. Is it generally accepted among astronomers that this new star will enter our sky in 2022?
     
  2. jcsd
  3. Jan 7, 2017 #2

    Vanadium 50

    User Avatar
    Staff Emeritus
    Science Advisor
    Education Advisor

    It's not a new star, it's KIC9832227, and the press has picked up the idea that it might nova (get it - nova? new star?) in the next few years. It's an eclipsing binary, and one solution (there are apparently at least two, since there seems to be pulsation as well) has the two stars merging in a few years.
     
  4. Jan 10, 2017 #3

    DaveC426913

    User Avatar
    Gold Member

    I always thought that astronomcal events occurred over ... astronomical time scales, or at least if they were rapid, the margin of error would be over astronomical timescales.

    Plausible to predict such an event in our lifetime?
    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...sky-by-2022/articleshow/56437031.cms?from=mdr

    Thoughts?
     
  5. Jan 10, 2017 #4
  6. Jan 10, 2017 #5

    DaveC426913

    User Avatar
    Gold Member

    Indeed. This is as I perceive it too. Astronomical events - predictable ones - tend to have a minimum of five zeros in their estimates.

    Which is why this one caught my attention.

    Their calculation of the orbit is a mere eleven hours - and it is dropping fast. That's why the prediction with such accuracy seems plausible.
     
  7. Jan 10, 2017 #6

    jim mcnamara

    User Avatar

    Staff: Mentor

    I read the Calvin College note written by Molnar and the phys.org article - they are more explanatory.
    http://phys.org/news/2017-01-astronomers-explosion-night-sky.html

    The binary in question has two stars in very close proximity with orbit changes measured over one year. Orbit times are decreasing markedly, indicating the stars are approaching one another - according to the article.
    Molnar is not making a clear prognostication because lots more data is needed, from different telescopes. Which apparently they have gotten time on. And it is a collaborative effort across institutions.

    Anyway they believe the star will become visible from earth.
     
  8. Jan 10, 2017 #7

    DaveC426913

    User Avatar
    Gold Member

    - Heywood Floyd
     
  9. Jan 10, 2017 #8
    Yes, I saw this down the feed. My thought?, was the word 'great'.

    I hope I'm around to witness this frequency increasing, heavenly dance of merger.
     
  10. Jan 11, 2017 #9
    I'm excited. Normally I'd say there's no way to predict that, but they seem pretty confident and I'm sure calculating descending orbits is way easier that trying to figure out when a star will simply die and explode.
     
  11. Jan 11, 2017 #10

    Vanadium 50

    User Avatar
    Staff Emeritus
    Science Advisor
    Education Advisor

    This is a possible nova progenitor, not a supernova.
    It is far from a certainty that the proposed timeline is in fact correct.
     
  12. Jan 11, 2017 #11

    davenn

    User Avatar
    Science Advisor
    Gold Member

    true, but as V50 has said, this is about a nova, not a supernova ... very different beasts

    there are a number of stars that do the nova outburst on a regular basis

    down the page on here
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nova

    gives a list of recurrent novae
     
  13. Jan 11, 2017 #12

    DaveC426913

    User Avatar
    Gold Member

    ?
    It's about merging stars. With a known orbital period. Theye're not guessing at stellar evolution rates here.

    Surely knowing the period down to minutes or less results in a pretty good ability to estimate the outcome. ?
     
  14. Jan 11, 2017 #13

    Vanadium 50

    User Avatar
    Staff Emeritus
    Science Advisor
    Education Advisor

    There is some question about that because there are pulsations as well. Furthermore, the rate of orbital decay requires some extrapolation. Finally, stars aren't solid, so the time they "merge" is not well defined.
     
  15. Jan 11, 2017 #14

    DaveC426913

    User Avatar
    Gold Member

    Right. It gives a timeline of 5 years, "give or take a year".

    My primary interest really is that it will certainly occur within my expected lifetime. So, 2022 or 2023 or 2030 are OK by me.
     
  16. Jan 12, 2017 #15
    Same, I just want to SEE it. The odds of us seeing it are just so low. The last time something like this happened was 1604.

    I'm sure I'll feel compelled to look at it through my telescope too. Intellectually I know it'll still just be a point, but I still want to. And I seriously can't wait for the James Webb and Hubble pictures. I'm sure it'll be one of the closest watched astronomical events ever, like Shoemaker-Levy 9.
     
  17. Jan 12, 2017 #16
    Do we know what type of stars they are? All I've found so far is that its a contact binary system.
     
  18. Jan 12, 2017 #17

    Vanadium 50

    User Avatar
    Staff Emeritus
    Science Advisor
    Education Advisor

    No. Let me say again. This is a possible nova progenitor, not a supernova. The last naked-eye nova was in November in Sagittarius.
     
  19. Jan 12, 2017 #18
    http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/MolnarEtAl2017.pdf [Broken]

    Quote from paper.
    The prediction of a naked eye nova (2nd magnitude if it brightens as much a V1309 Sco did) in the year 2022+/-0.6y makes it essential to use the available time to fullest advantage

    What I do not get from the paper what the most likely scenario is in terms of breaking apart of the smaller star. In any case it could be very exciting to see it happen over time.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 8, 2017
  20. Jan 12, 2017 #19

    davenn

    User Avatar
    Science Advisor
    Gold Member

    what happened in 1604 ??

    yup
    and the last naked eye supernova happened in 1987, with SN1987A blazing bright for a couple of months in the LMC

    Dave
     
  21. Jan 12, 2017 #20
Know someone interested in this topic? Share this thread via Reddit, Google+, Twitter, or Facebook

Have something to add?
Draft saved Draft deleted



Similar Discussions: New star in the skies -- Plausible?
Loading...