New star in the skies -- Plausible?

[lifeonmercury]

This new star which supposedly formed 1800 years ago and which will become visible to us in 2022 is not shown in Stellarium. Is it generally accepted among astronomers that this new star will enter our sky in 2022?

 

[Vanadium 50]

It's not a new star, it's KIC9832227, and the press has picked up the idea that it might nova (get it - nova? new star?) in the next few years. It's an eclipsing binary, and one solution (there are apparently at least two, since there seems to be pulsation as well) has the two stars merging in a few years.

 

[DaveC426913]

I always thought that astronomcal events occurred over ... astronomical time scales, or at least if they were rapid, the margin of error would be over astronomical timescales.

Plausible to predict such an event in our lifetime?
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...sky-by-2022/articleshow/56437031.cms?from=mdr

Thoughts?

 

[rootone]

Supernova events are seen in other galaxies, and occasionally in the Milky way
As far as I know these are not predictable, but Betelgeuse is a candidate,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betelgeuse

 

[DaveC426913]

Supernova events are seen in other galaxies, and occasionally in the Milky way
As far as I know these are not predictable, but Betelgeuse is a candidate,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betelgeuse

Indeed. This is as I perceive it too. Astronomical events - predictable ones - tend to have a minimum of five zeros in their estimates.

Which is why this one caught my attention.

Their calculation of the orbit is a mere eleven hours - and it is dropping fast. That's why the prediction with such accuracy seems plausible.

 

[jim mcnamara]

I read the Calvin College note written by Molnar and the phys.org article - they are more explanatory.
http://phys.org/news/2017-01-astronomers-explosion-night-sky.html

The binary in question has two stars in very close proximity with orbit changes measured over one year. Orbit times are decreasing markedly, indicating the stars are approaching one another - according to the article.
Molnar is not making a clear prognostication because lots more data is needed, from different telescopes. Which apparently they have gotten time on. And it is a collaborative effort across institutions.

Anyway they believe the star will become visible from earth.

 

[DaveC426913]

I'm trying to put into words what has happened. Maybe that's for historians to do sometime later. They will record that the next day, the President of the United States looked out of the White House window and the Premier of the Soviet Union looked out of the Kremlin window, and saw the new distant sun in the sky.

Your children will be born in a world of two suns. They will never know a sky without them.

- Heywood Floyd

 

[Electron Spin]

Yes, I saw this down the feed. My thought?, was the word 'great'.

I hope I'm around to witness this frequency increasing, heavenly dance of merger.

 

[newjerseyrunner]

I'm excited. Normally I'd say there's no way to predict that, but they seem pretty confident and I'm sure calculating descending orbits is way easier that trying to figure out when a star will simply die and explode.

 

[Vanadium 50]

This is a possible nova progenitor, not a supernova.
It is far from a certainty that the proposed timeline is in fact correct.

 

[davenn]

Supernova events are seen in other galaxies, and occasionally in the Milky way
As far as I know these are not predictable, but Betelgeuse is a candidate,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betelgeuse

true, but as V50 has said, this is about a nova, not a supernova ... very different beasts

there are a number of stars that do the nova outburst on a regular basis

down the page on here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nova

gives a list of recurrent novae

 

[DaveC426913]

This is a possible nova progenitor, not a supernova.
It is far from a certainty that the proposed timeline is in fact correct.

?
It's about merging stars. With a known orbital period. Theye're not guessing at stellar evolution rates here.

Surely knowing the period down to minutes or less results in a pretty good ability to estimate the outcome. ?

 

[Vanadium 50]

With a known orbital period.

There is some question about that because there are pulsations as well. Furthermore, the rate of orbital decay requires some extrapolation. Finally, stars aren't solid, so the time they "merge" is not well defined.

 

[DaveC426913]

Finally, stars aren't solid, so the time they "merge" is not well defined.

Right. It gives a timeline of 5 years, "give or take a year".

My primary interest really is that it will certainly occur within my expected lifetime. So, 2022 or 2023 or 2030 are OK by me.

 

[newjerseyrunner]

My primary interest really is that it will certainly occur within my expected lifetime. So, 2022 or 2023 or 2030 are OK by me.

Same, I just want to SEE it. The odds of us seeing it are just so low. The last time something like this happened was 1604.

I'm sure I'll feel compelled to look at it through my telescope too. Intellectually I know it'll still just be a point, but I still want to. And I seriously can't wait for the James Webb and Hubble pictures. I'm sure it'll be one of the closest watched astronomical events ever, like Shoemaker-Levy 9.

 

[BenAS]

Do we know what type of stars they are? All I've found so far is that its a contact binary system.

 

[Vanadium 50]

The last time something like this happened was 1604.

No. Let me say again. This is a possible nova progenitor, not a supernova. The last naked-eye nova was in November in Sagittarius.

 

[Michael27]

http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/MolnarEtAl2017.pdf

Quote from paper.
The prediction of a naked eye nova (2nd magnitude if it brightens as much a V1309 Sco did) in the year 2022+/-0.6y makes it essential to use the available time to fullest advantage

What I do not get from the paper what the most likely scenario is in terms of breaking apart of the smaller star. In any case it could be very exciting to see it happen over time.

 

[davenn]

The last time something like this happened was 1604.

what happened in 1604 ??

No. Let me say again. This is a possible nova progenitor, not a supernova. The last naked-eye nova was in November in Sagittarius.

yup
and the last naked eye supernova happened in 1987, with SN1987A blazing bright for a couple of months in the LMC

Dave

 

[rootone]

what happened in 1604 ??

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler's_Supernova

 

[davenn]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepler's_Supernova

yeah I found that one and came back to see your post