Oil from genetically-modified organisms

[mheslep]

...What about air conditioning in bumper to bumper traffic and 100 degree weather? ...

This is where the EV has some perhaps unexpected advantages so I'm adding more here: An IC engine runs at it near its worst efficiency sitting at idle where as the PHEV drive train just shuts off. (Its actually a bit weird the 1st time one experiences this out on the highway in the current HEVs. "Shoot! My engine died. Nevermind"). So the ICE is producing a lot of heat that it has to dispose of at idle, running the radiator fan hard, etc, all of this working against the goal of cooling the passenger compartment. Then the compressor must be supplied mechanical power by the 30% efficient ICE, again more heat to toss. In the PHEV case a 90% efficient motor is used. Last, I read somewhere the compressor installed in big SUVs is large enough to cool an entire house in summer in Georgia, a product of cheap gasoline no doubt, and something that some better insulation and IR blocking glass could address.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

No as discussed here and in NREL reports there is plenty of excess grid capacity for charging PHEVs (5 to 15kWhrs) at night when the demand is otherwise low.

In that case you must reduce the range of electric vehicles by half - we drive to and from work. This also ignores the new loads, such as desalination, which will also try to compete for off-hours power.

Also, it isn't just air conditioning, which would drastically reduce the range of all electric operation. We also need heaters. So with that, you probably cut your range in half again for a good part of the nation, for much of the year.

Non-issue. Nobody has plans to use lead acid batteries for PHEVs, the energy density is too low. Lithium Ion batteries do not use heavy metals (the environmental threat) though they need a recycling plan just like everything else these days.

How many times have we covered this? Li ion batteries are too expensive, which is precisely why McCain is calling for a better battery. In fact the all electric cars that you talk about are using lead-acid. You can't defend as an option, technology that we don't yet have.

Will be interesting to see but note: 1) we're talking here about 100 mpg equivalent PHEVs not just the current HEVs and PHEVs are a year away, 2) to be relevant to the context of this thread, the comparison needs to be against the cost of algae biodiesel or cellulosic ethanol per gallon

Edit: source
[1] Preliminary Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles ..., table 3
www.nrel.gov/docs/fy06osti/39729.pdf

Anyway, here is the report that I was talking about.

When consumers think about cars that will save them money, hybrids are typically top of mind because of their fuel efficiency," said Jesse Toprak, Edmunds.com Executive Director of Industry Analysis. "But when you take a look at the real-world costs of car ownership, you realize that many subcompact and compact cars are actually a much better value proposition."

http://www.edmunds.com/help/about/press/127806/article.html

 

[Ivan Seeking]

As for motivations, likewise, I am not against electric cars, or hybrids, of PV, or any viable option for power, but the point that I have been trying to make is that we can't diversify, drill, battery power, or bicycle our way out of the oil crisis. Too much of our society depends on the energy stored in petroleum, so we must find an option to petro for trucks, planes, trains, ships, as well as many if not most personal and commercial vehicles.

If we find an option for all of that, and we must if we want our way of life to continue, then we won't need electric cars. We could still use them for other reasons, but we wouldn't need to for the sake of the energy. So, although there are options that can help along the way, we must find a viable option to oil, and we must do it very soon. If we don't, the rest may well be moot. My hope is that algae is that option, as it appears to be. But I certainly support investigations into all possible options.

Did you hear the statement today by one OPEC leader who said that problems in the ME, such as a war with Iran, could drive the price of oil to virtually unlimited heights?

VIENNA — The head of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries warned on Thursday that oil prices would experience an “unlimited” increase in the event of a military conflict involving Iran because the group’s members would be unable to make up the lost production.

“We really cannot replace Iran’s production — it’s not feasible to replace it,” Abdalla Salem el-Badri, the OPEC secretary general, said in an interview. [continued]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/11/business/worldbusiness/11opec.html

As I think I mentioned earlier, I've heard similar statements. One estimate suggested that one attack on an oil tanker could drive crude to $250 a barrel [perhaps $7-$8 a gallon for gas, and over $8 for diesel], virtually overnight, because of the cost of insurance.

 

[mheslep]

Just in case we are off track regards technology I'm discussing: it is not light HEVs like the Prius, it is not all electrics like the Tesla, though both these successfully demonstrate aspects of EV technology; rather it is the forthcoming Plugin Hybrid EVs like the Volt which I suggest have what it takes to make a serious reduction in imported oil. The PHEV has a 20 to 60 mi all electric range, has E motors directly driving the traction system with both batteries and a combustion engine spinning a generator.

In that case you must reduce the range of electric vehicles by half - we drive to and from work. This also ignores the new loads, such as desalination, which will also try to compete for off-hours power.

16kWhrs of charge is enough to drive 40 miles all at once or in as many pieces as you like, and that covers the average commute both ways.

Also, it isn't just air conditioning, which would drastically reduce the range of all electric operation. We also need heaters. So with that, you probably cut your range in half again for a good part of the nation, for much of the year.

Its not half. The tractive power dwarfs the passenger heating/cooling loads. How much heat do you want? I expect a passenger heating system needs comfortably 1500W average? Pull 1.5kWh (10%) from the batteries, or pull it from the wasted heat (15%) of the E drive system averaging 22kW at 60mph. I know of at least one design that does the latter.

How many times have we covered this? Li ion batteries are too expensive, which is precisely why McCain is calling for a better battery. In fact the all electric cars that you talk about are using lead-acid. You can't defend as an option, technology that we don't yet have.

?? Again I am not talking about all electric cars, the only one I've discussed is the Tesla which is Li ion. All the forthcoming PHEVs are using Li Ion - that's the majors including Chevy and Toyota and the 5 or 6 startup companies I referenced here
https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=1721692&postcount=62

The cost of Li ion was $450/kWh in 2007, more after packaging it for a vehicle.
http://spectrum.ieee.org/sep07/5490/3
So 16kWh of batteries cost perhaps $10k for a PHEV. Throw in the E motor, eliminate transmission, axles, differential and some other mechanicals, balance the whole against the fuel savings and obviously several manufacturers believe PHEVs are economically viable.

Thanks for Edmunds, I'll take a look later.

 

[rewebster]

there was a guy from some 'rocky mountain institute' or something that mentioned algae oil on Charlie Rose last night

 

[mheslep]

there was a guy from some 'rocky mountain institute' or something that mentioned algae oil on Charlie Rose last night

Amory Lovins, founder of RMI, has been on Rose before. Looks like he's a regular now.
2006:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4569577556800822039
I saw a comment on Lovins from a scientist working in the energy field: "Lovins is half genius and half snake oil salesman" or the like.

Yesterday:
http://www.charlierose.com/shows/2008/07/15/2/a-conversation-with-amory-lovins
Notable:
Rose: "a lot of people predict to me that 18 months from now one of the big three [US auto makers] won't be here"
Lovins: "At least one"

Rose: "Biofuels. Have they lost their attractiveness ..."
Lovins: "Corn ethanol has had its successes and was a way to get started but I don't think anyone believes it should be the mainstay of a large scale biofuel program, and we ought to be making biofuels out of stuff that neither we nor animals can eat. Now, I understand than when you make corn ethanol you also make a bunch of byproducts that livestock can eat. But, it makes a lot more sense, and we'll make more money as the technology matures to make biofuels out of woody weedy stuff ... switch grass, wood waste and so on. And it turns out that if you have the 3x efficiency cars and trucks and planes that we should have anyway, have terrific economics, uncompromised performance and better safety, then you can make enough biofuel without using any crop land, and, without interfering in anyway with food production and without interfering in irrigation. If you try however to make a biofuels program to run todays inefficient fleets then you have all kinds of problems."