Pacific Palisades Fire Threatening Santa Monica, California

[Ivan Seeking]

This is looking like a potential catastrophe. Right now the fire is only about five miles from Santa Monica (a major city) and wind gusts as high as 80 mph are expected. This is being driven by the Santa Ana Winds, which are notorious for creating extremely dangerous fire conditions with hot, dry winds that often reach as much as 100 mph.

Parts of Santa Monica are now being evacuated.

https://www.latimes.com/california/live/pacific-palisades-fire-updates-los-angeles

 

[mcastillo356]

God, please, please

 

[Ivan Seeking]

God, please, please

Are you close to the fire? Are you okay?

 

[berkeman]

Are you close to the fire? Are you okay?

His Profile, About info lists his country as Spain, so unless he is very unlucky and on vacation in SoCal, he should be okay.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

His Profile, About info lists his country as Spain, so unless he is very unlucky and on vacation in SoCal, he should be okay.

I don't think it will spread all the way to Spain unless the winds REALLY pick up.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

It is into the cities and 155,000 evacuations are ordered so far.

Many people including celebrities have been forced to evacuate on foot.

Some fire hydrant systems have run dry.

 

[fresh_42]

I don't think it will spread all the way to Spain unless the winds REALLY pick up.

It's not as if Spain wouldn't know the situation!

 

[mcastillo356]

I went to California in my childhood, I personally feel very close to the wildfire. And I pray for the family that gave me shelter. I pray for the firefighters, I pray for...For an end to this living wild nightmare

 

[berkeman]

My local Alameda County Fire Department along with several neighboring fire departments is sending a task force south to help out. Stay safe FFs.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Earlier they had four major fires burning. Now there are five. Four still have zero containment.

 

[DaveE]

In addition, the Eaton fire is active in the vicinity of JPL and east through Altadena to Sierra Madre. 10K acres, 0% containment.
https://app.watchduty.org/i/40388

 

[Ivan Seeking]

In addition, the Eaton fire is active in the vicinity of JPL and east through Altadena to Sierra Madre. 10K acres, 0% containment.
https://app.watchduty.org/i/40388

JPL and Cal Tech.

 

[DaveE]

JPL and Cal Tech.

Caltech is OK, it's far enough south for now. Approximately south of Washington Blvd, or so, is OK.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Caltech is OK, it's far enough south for now. Approximately south of Washington Blvd, or so, is OK.

The winds are expected to get back up to 60 mph later tonight. I don't know which way the Santa Anas blow through Pasadena.

Last night the winds reached 100 mph. A strange fact that they get the highest winds during the late hours of the night in these conditions.

 

[DaveE]

I don't know which way the Santa Anas blow through Pasadena.

From the desert towards the ocean, in general. But it's weird near the San Gabriel mountain front.
60mph is maybe only gusts near fire activity. The forecast is currently 10-20mph, gusting to 30mph and is expected to drop by 10mph or so tomorrow.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I went to California in my childhood, I personally feel very close to the wildfire. And I pray for the family that gave me shelter. I pray for the firefighters, I pray for...For an end to this living wild nightmare

Yes, this is horrific. I have lived all over the LA area and know these areas well. It is surreal to imagine the cities are burning.

Last night I was thinking about someone I knew who was wiped out by a major storm - the one that wiped out the Jersey shore some years ago. He was heartbroken and couldn't stand the thought of the years of rebuilding it would take to get back to normal. So he decided to move to start a new life.

He moved to Santa Monica.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

In fact many of my favorite areas of California have burned to the ground. I used to drive that road every day to Paradise, California, where back in 2018 many people died in their cars trying to get down the mountain. A couple of years later, Berry Creek and Upper Bidwell Park burned. These were areas I where I spent a lot of time. It was all dramatically beautiful. Now it is all gone and will take decades to recover, if it recovers.

The Governor mentioned that California doesn't have a fire season anymore. It is year round. Note this is all happening in the dead of winter.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Now there is a sixth fire.

 

[DaveE]

In addition to the dramatically increased threat to forested areas, like Paradise, urban areas are now threatened with conflagration. This is new. People that owned homes in the Coffey Park area of Santa Rosa, or now, in Altadena, never really had to worry too much about massive fires.

 

[Flyboy]

So apparently the region is suffering one if the driest winters they’ve ever documented, with less than a quarter inch of rain since July. Normally they would be at ~4 inches by this point. Add in hurricane force winds, areas that haven’t burned in living memory, and the dense construction of the area compared to “typical” areas where these kinds of fire hit, and… yeah.

You don’t fight this kind of fire. You delay it and slow it long enough to give people the opportunity to evacuate and then you pull out. If you stand and fight… you get overrun.

The comparison to the Camp Fire is terribly apt, and I fear that the final death toll is going to be high.

Good news is that the winds calmed this afternoon enough to let air tankers and helicopters get into the area and they hit it hard. Hopefully the calmer conditions hold tomorrow morning long enough for them to lay some solid retardant lines and delay the fires before the next round of high winds.

 

[BillTre]

Here is a screenshot of a map of the fires from this morning.
The round shapes represent air quality, The blotchy stuff is the fires.
The map site is: https://fire.airnow.gov/#8.89/34.0504/-118.0959.
You can zoom in and out of it.

In this higher mag shot you can see that the fires are mostly in the foothills (generally very steep and inaccessible).

JPL is where La Ca´nada/Flintridge is (are). Near fires and bad air quality.
Caltech (which administers JPL) is in Pasadena about where the word "Pasadena" ends. You can zoom in on the map site and see it.
Except for Altadena (east of JPL) most of the fires are in the hills or adjacent to them. There is not that much to burn on the Caltech campus (mostly grass) and being campus buildings, they are not wood made and less likely to catch fire.

Looks like my screenshots didn't work. Maybe they'll show up later, but you can still go to the map site to look.

 

[DaveE]

This is a good map for people that aren't familiar with the LA area:
https://calfire-forestry.maps.arcgi...tml?webscene=0a7381c8b46b4e26a057383424f32c06

Screenshot:

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Two fires are zero percent contained and the winds are expected to return for the next couple of days.

 

[berkeman]

the winds are expected to return for the next couple of days.

This video give you a feel for the 100mph winds driving the fire...

 

[Ivan Seeking]

One reason they lost water in some areas was the loss of power. The electric companies shut down power during high winds so they don't have power lines failing and causing fires. Power lines were responsible for the Camp Fire (Paradise Ca 2018).

They have brought or will bring in generators for the pumps.

4000-5000 structures are known to be lost.

 

[berkeman]

One reason they lost water in some areas was the loss of power. The electric companies shut down power during high winds so they don't have power lines failing and causing fires. Power lines were responsible for the Camp Fire (Paradise Ca 2018).

They have brought or will bring in generators for the pumps.

OMG, that's so bad. Part of the Safety Power Shutoffs and the preparation for them is to be sure that there is no critical infrastructure that could be affected. That's why they don't do it for power going to hospitals and similar. Shutting off power to the pumping stations is close to criminal, IMO.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Shutting off power to the pumping stations is close to criminal, IMO.

Perhaps the lines were down. They may have had no choice.

They are saying 6 known deaths so far. I'm afraid the number will be an order of magnitude or two greater than that, at least.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

180,000 people under evacuation orders now.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Not long ago we had a false alarm where I live. There was a fire in the area. Suddenly an alert came up on my phone saying a fire was coming. Don't grab your belongings. Run!

At the time it was just me and my cat here. So I grabbed my cat and my computer and jumped in my car. I figured a fire must be coming from the hill below me so I drove the opposite direction while looking for smoke or emergency vehicles. When I didn't see anything I stopped to fill my gas tank. But no one seemed to be concerned. After checking things out for a bit I went back home. Eventually another message came up. We were issued a false alarm. The alert was supposed to be limited to one area and instead it went out to everyone for miles all around.

Luckily it was nothing but I can certainly appreciate how it feels to be told to drop what you are doing and run. It is difficult to know what to do. Which way do I run? Where do I go? It is easy to see how confusion could set in.

 

[berkeman]

After checking things out for a bit I went back home. Eventually another message came up. We were issued a false alarm.

Yikes, scary. Glad that things were okay in the end.

Luckily it was nothing but I can certainly appreciate how it feels to be told to drop what you are doing and run. It is difficult to know what to do. Which way do I run? Where do I go? It is easy to see how confusion could set in.

Yeah, all of us in potential disaster zones need to be prepared to evacuate quickly with our essentials and what we need to live in a random place for a few days, or to survive in-place for a couple weeks without essential services (water, power, etc.).

My wife and I currently live in a fire hazard zone in the east foothills above Silicon Valley, and a couple years ago a fire evacuation zone came within 30 feet of our back door (the zone extended to the middle of the road behind our house). I checked the weather websites and saw that the wind was blowing the fire away from us, and decided to stay. (My wife was not real happy with that judgement of mine at the time...)

We were fine in the end, but that experience really drives home what the folks in SoCal are dealing with right now.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Another new fire: The Kenneth Fire - the North side of the 101 out by Hidden Hills

 

[Flyboy]

I still don't understand why people think you can fight these fires directly. Short of a literal tsunami, you cannot place enough water on target to fight something like this. Protect evacuation routes, protect the people getting out, defend critical infrastructure if you feel it's actually defensible without risking the lives of the fire fighters... that's what you can do.

There's a movie I'm fond of that has a memorable line... "There are things you can't fight. Acts of God. You see a hurricane coming? You get out of the way." That's what we're facing here, and trying to protect everything of even moderate importance is going to be a failure. They have to triage and protect what has to be protected, no more. They don't have the equipment, supplies, or manpower to do more.

That said, the aerial fight has been going better than I had dared hope. They put in way more flight time and way more drops than I was expecting today given the weather conditions, and that's going to buy vital time for the folks on the ground.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Another new fire is being reported in the (San Fernando I assume) Valley, according to a fire Chief.

 

[Flyboy]

https://www.twz.com/air/one-of-just...es-taken-out-of-palisades-fire-fight-by-drone

Well, that’s wonderful

 

[Ivan Seeking]

https://www.twz.com/air/one-of-just...es-taken-out-of-palisades-fire-fight-by-drone

Well, that’s wonderful

Jeeez. Oh man.

10 confirmed dead. 10K buildings known to be destroyed.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Another new fire - the Archer Fire - is forcing evacuations in the Granada Hills area.
https://ktla.com/news/california/wildfires/brush-fire-erupts-amid-eratic-winds-in-granada-hills/

 

[berkeman]

And to add insult to injury, it looks like there have been several large-scale evacuation orders sent out to people's phones by mistake:

https://www.nbcnews.com/weather/wil...os-angeles-area-millions-residents-rcna187091

Ouch. The good news is that they are starting to get some containment on some of the fires...

 

[Ivan Seeking]

And to add insult to injury, it looks like there have been several large-scale evacuation orders sent out to people's phones by mistake:

https://www.nbcnews.com/weather/wil...os-angeles-area-millions-residents-rcna187091

Ouch. The good news is that they are starting to get some containment on some of the fires...

I have seen a number of people like one older couple who evacuated to their daughter's home and lost everything. Then they and their daughter's family had to evacuate and they too lost everything.

 

[gmax137]

One reason they lost water in some areas was the loss of power.

Source, please? SCE is denying this, even though people in positions to know the truth (eg, POTUS) keep repeating it.

 

[MidgetDwarf]

I still don't understand why people think you can fight these fires directly. Short of a literal tsunami, you cannot place enough water on target to fight something like this. Protect evacuation routes, protect the people getting out, defend critical infrastructure if you feel it's actually defensible without risking the lives of the fire fighters... that's what you can do.

There's a movie I'm fond of that has a memorable line... "There are things you can't fight. Acts of God. You see a hurricane coming? You get out of the way." That's what we're facing here, and trying to protect everything of even moderate importance is going to be a failure. They have to triage and protect what has to be protected, no more. They don't have the equipment, supplies, or manpower to do more.

That said, the aerial fight has been going better than I had dared hope. They put in way more flight time and way more drops than I was expecting today given the weather conditions, and that's going to buy vital time for the folks on the ground.

I heard they try to fight it, due to the affluent nature of the people who live there.

 

[MidgetDwarf]

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Source, please? SCE is denying this, even though people in positions to know the truth (eg, POTUS) keep repeating it.

POTUS and I'm sure other people interviewed. I have heard a number of explanations including

• the loss of power
• the loss of pumping capacity
• depletion of the emergency water storage due to too large of a load on the system.
• There were too many trucks trying to use water - the demand simply exceeded the pump capacity.
• Areas ravaged by fire had uncontrolled leaks spewing water needed to fight the front line.

 

[gmax137]

I heard they try to fight it, due to the affluent nature of the people who live there.

Here in Nevada, the fire fighters always try to defend property (houses, buildings) threatened by wildfire. They don't care if it is a big house or a small ranch house or even a garage. After a fire is contained, I have often seen a single house of building still standing, surrounded by scorched earth. They do this by dropping water all around the structure they're defending. I imagine the same is true in southern Cali. The steep terrain and the 100 mph Santa Anna winds made this impossible in this week's fires, I don't think the income of the residents plays any part in it. In fact, that suggestion is an insult to the fire fighters.

 

[gmax137]

POTUS and I'm sure other people interviewed. I have heard a number of explanations including

• the loss of power
• the loss of pumping capacity
• depletion of the emergency water storage due to too large of a load on the system.
• There were too many trucks trying to use water - the demand simply exceeded the pump capacity.
• Areas ravaged by fire had uncontrolled leaks spewing water needed to fight the front line.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/palisades-fire-hydrants-ran-out-of-water/

I can't find the SCE statement again now. EDIT: But from the Snopes piece

The LADWP said in an email on Jan. 9: "There is no lack of water flowing through our pipes or flowing to the Palisades area. Water remains available in Palisades, but is limited in areas at elevation, impacting fire hydrants."

According to Quiñones, the department followed emergency procedures ahead of the windstorm that exacerbated the Los Angeles wildfires on Jan. 7. She told reporters on Jan. 8 (at the 27:30 time stamp):

In preparation for the windstorm LADWP activated its emergency preparation plans and filled all 114 available water reservoirs and storage facilities throughout the city including the three 1 million-gallon tanks in the Palisades area. We also fueled all our generators serving our pump stations to ensure water will flow out through the emergency.

Note the part, "We also fueled all our generators serving our pump stations..."

I don't want to get banned for talking about why Biden is propping up the California state politicians.

 

[berkeman]

I heard they try to fight it, due to the affluent nature of the people who live there.

I work a lot with FFs, and I'm with gmax on this. FFs don't fight fires based on saving famous people's homes first. Please don't suggest that.

Just a reminder for everybody to post links to credible sources of information on things like the loss of power to pumping stations, etc. There should be such credible sources, although in the fog of war, it may take a couple weeks for them to surface.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

See the video of Biden explaining that power was turned off to prevent creating more fires
https://thehill.com/video/biden-say...s-led-to-california-water-shortages/10357741/

 

[berkeman]

See the video of Biden explaining that power was turned off to prevent creating more fires
https://thehill.com/video/biden-say...s-led-to-california-water-shortages/10357741/

I'm inclined to think that POTUS had good sources of information, but this is a counterpoint that I also think is pretty credible:

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/palisades-fire-hydrants-ran-out-of-water/

I can say from personal experience that when a firefighting engine hooks up to a hydrant in a neighborhood to start pumping water, that the pressure to normal water outlets (like me fighting the neighborhood home fire with a garden hose) tanks to nothing. So it's reasonable that at higher elevations with multiple taps into the water system that the pressure would drop enough to starve those higher hydrants.

We may well need to wait for the fog to clear and an After Action Report (AAR) to be issued to know whether the power company was culpable in this loss of water.

 

[fresh_42]

I have heard a couple of interesting facts in interviews with experts here. I report what has been said, I cannot provide sources though.

• Rain (if not directly on the flames) and droughts are irrelevant. The hot and dry Santa Ana coming from the desert works like a hair dryer. Any humidity would have been blown away anyway once it is burning - from an interview with a park ranger.
• A study - they named the source, but it was too quick on TV to write it down, sounded like McKansey - showed that 100% of wildfires in the area in the past five years were caused by arson, not necessarily willfully but artificially.
• Such an event has nothing to do with climate change. Yes, droughts do, but see above. If at all, then climate change will have a lowering impact on Santa Ana since a warming ocean will smoothen the isobars relative to the desert.
• Such events are normal in the area, even though several causes contributed to this time's devastating effects. It is a general problem that we face all over the world. People settle in dangerous areas: wildfires in California, volcanos in Napoli, bottomlands in central Europe, or coastlines everywhere.
• They also discussed whether wood as the preferred construction material could have played a role. The answer was no. Wood is better regarding the risk of earthquakes and bricks aren't any better. It's the point of attacks that matter like dry leaves in gutters, dry lawns, etc.
• Precaution is the only long-term solution. They said that Mexico on the other side of the border deals better with it in this respect. I cannot comment on this, so I just repeat what a science journalist has said on German TV.

I found these interviews interesting and even without quoting a source worth a thought. Still better than what some politicians come up with forcing firefighters to state that they, I quote "don't play politics".

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I have heard a couple of interesting facts in interviews with experts here. I report what has been said, I cannot provide sources though.

• Rain (if not directly on the flames) and droughts are irrelevant. The hot and dry Santa Ana coming from the desert works like a hair dryer. Any humidity would have been blown away anyway once it is burning - from an interview with a park ranger.

There was a map showing that the fire lines stopped almost exactly where the severe drought area ends.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA
https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/08/us/maps-visuals-los-angeles-wildfires-dg/index.html

 

[fresh_42]

There was a map showing that the fire lines stopped almost exactly where the severe drought area ends.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA
https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/08/us/maps-visuals-los-angeles-wildfires-dg/index.html

Maybe that would need a closer look at aspects like plantings, constructions, and so on. CNN also showed a map of the Palisades fire that abruptly stopped in a straight line at the county border. So much to their reliability. Or the one south of it, I don't remember exactly. I just wondered about that straight.